Cash for Clunkers talk heating up

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

The March sales are relevant in that all are expected to go down in April. Of course you won't read them since they counter your claims and support what I have been saying.


I repeat the USA is NOT the world automotive market no matter what Toyota USA may think. This is a global issue.
I do not see how there are these increases you clam. The industry (including your precious Toyota) was already in decline in 2019 this situation is on top of those bleak forecasts. Just go read.


Those sales do not create cash flow for Toyota anyway since those cars were already paid for.

Then show your data or your empty accusations are meaningless.

Everything I posted is accurate although I can understand if you're confused since I posted two sets of data, one for Portland Region before your meltdown and later another for USA.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Atmo

Then show your data or your empty accusations are meaningless.

Everything I posted is accurate although I can understand if you're confused since I posted two sets of data, one for Portland Region before your meltdown and later another for USA.

Meh Portland certainly is not global. Neither is USA. You have far too narrow a picture of the industry as a whole. Sit in your little marketing dream world and ignore what is going on.
Short term number (if accurate) do not reflect the state of the industry. Time will tell who is closer to being accurate.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Meh Portland certainly is not global. Neither is USA. You have far too narrow a picture of the industry as a whole. Sit in your little marketing dream world and ignore what is going on.
Short term number (if accurate) do not reflect the state of the industry. Time will tell who is closer to being accurate.

Yes, I'm very proud of the "little" Toyota marketing team that had a part in selling over 1,000,000 vehicles per year for decades while providing work for hundreds of North American vendors apparently including you.

I also credit Toyota design, engineering, and manufacturing equally or more for Toyota's success, especially engineering, they're geniuses.

Almost all of Toyota NA senior management came up through the marketing channel though more finance types are in the mix now.

I shared your concern about future inventory levels and why the need for all the new Portland April incentives in a depressed market. But the data shows it's working in this part of the U.S. where auto dealers are considered essential and are given the choice of opening sales departments. It may not work in bigger markets but Portland became proof of concept so there will be big May incentives natiowide.

Almost all U.S. dealers have open service centers though, lots of oil, filters, coolant, belts, batteries, and wiper blades are in stock. Gotta keep the lights on and parts and service are playing a big part in absorption of overhead.

[humfrz]

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

I hope not, c4c ate up the bottom end of the used car supply and that only hurts people at the bottom who right now can find serviceable vehicles for $1.5k-$3k. This is a hand out to auto manufacturers propping up a broken economic system that pursues profit growth at all costs when these auto manufacturers need to think long term about how to provide responsible transit to this country which will likely mean reduced volume and increased quality. I believe keeping an old car on the road for more years is less damaging to the environment than manufacturing a new one.

And the emissions improvements will be shit, most cheap cars on the roads are capable of 20+ mpg and reasonable emissions levels, it's a farce when the vast majority of emissions are created by global companies who lobby hard to not have to update their cheap and dirty infrastructure.

The repo overhang will soon affect the used car market with fairly well made small economy cars and CUV's still being paid off after 5-6 years hitting the market for <$5K.

"Broken economic system" is sugar coating it. These so-called "stimulus" packages being rammed through Congress will do more damage to individuals than any virus.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

I hope not, c4c ate up the bottom end of the used car supply and that only hurts people at the bottom who right now can find serviceable vehicles for $1.5k-$3k. This is a hand out to auto manufacturers propping up a broken economic system that pursues profit growth at all costs when these auto manufacturers need to think long term about how to provide responsible transit to this country which will likely mean reduced volume and increased quality. I believe keeping an old car on the road for more years is less damaging to the environment than manufacturing a new one.

And the emissions improvements will be shit, most cheap cars on the roads are capable of 20+ mpg and reasonable emissions levels, it's a farce when the vast majority of emissions are created by global companies who lobby hard to not have to update their cheap and dirty infrastructure.

in the rust belt, it ate up just about everything from $1-6k. even the $5k 'beaters' one can find at all are hot potato cars so hot, the ink's still wet from the last transfer of ownership before the regret of buying someone else's mistakes and poor judgements sunk in.

[why?]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

I hope not, c4c ate up the bottom end of the used car supply and that only hurts people at the bottom who right now can find serviceable vehicles for $1.5k-$3k. This is a hand out to auto manufacturers propping up a broken economic system that pursues profit growth at all costs when these auto manufacturers need to think long term about how to provide responsible transit to this country which will likely mean reduced volume and increased quality. I believe keeping an old car on the road for more years is less damaging to the environment than manufacturing a new one.

And the emissions improvements will be shit, most cheap cars on the roads are capable of 20+ mpg and reasonable emissions levels, it's a farce when the vast majority of emissions are created by global companies who lobby hard to not have to update their cheap and dirty infrastructure.

20 mpg sucks. Once someone experiences 45 + mpg and only filling the gas tank once a month it is very hard to go back. I hope the solid state batteries are really light, it would be amazing for lightweight cars like ours to be a hybrid.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Atmo

This $225 beauty might work.

https://www.copart.com/lot/34072760

Probably, but I suspect a large portion of these sitting on lots will be used by employees of said locations to do upgrades.

Also, as I recall, in the last C4C you had to own the car (registered in your name) for 1 year before you could trade it in.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

I don't think it is coincidence that these are also the exact cars that the manufacturers will want to pump out in volume to build cash flow back up!
They will have great deals on those and leave the toys and big expensive SUVs and luxury models until very last. If they make them again at all.

You obviously have more insight into this than I do, but I can't see them giving up the expensive SUVs and luxury models (read profit margin). Whether they would qualify for a C4C deal, probably not although some luxury sedans fall under $60,000.

Ironically, except for the fuel economy improvement (which it only misses by about 4MPG), I could trade in my 2004 Suburban for a new one under this program if I configure the new one correctly. Couldn't get the 6.2L model though.

Toys, yes. I can definitely see those going by the wayside, particularly if they are low volume toys in a high volume company.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by why?

20 mpg sucks. Once someone experiences 45 + mpg and only filling the gas tank once a month it is very hard to go back. .

That's not my experience, at least when comparing ICE to ICE.

My experience is vehicles have fuel tanks sized to their specific MPG ratings to meet a certain number of miles.

For example, my Suburban averages about 18MPG on the road, but it also has a 31 gallon tank. I can easily drive 500 miles on a single tank of fuel with margin.

By contrast, my 86 where I average 34MPG has a 13 gallon tank, which can go for about 400 miles before you get concerned with stopping.

Obviously, the 86 is cheaper to run, but the time I can run it is actually less than my Suburban.

I doub the 20MPG car in your case would have a similar size tank to a car that is getting a signicant enough increase that you only have to fill it once per month, unless you are talking about a plug-in hybrid and you are running it a substantial amount of time on electrons. (and that may be what you are referring to)

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

You obviously have more insight into this than I do, but I can't see them giving up the expensive SUVs and luxury models (read profit margin). Whether they would qualify for a C4C deal, probably not although some luxury sedans fall under $60,000.

Ironically, except for the fuel economy improvement (which it only misses by about 4MPG), I could trade in my 2004 Suburban for a new one under this program if I configure the new one correctly. Couldn't get the 6.2L model though.

Toys, yes. I can definitely see those going by the wayside, particularly if they are low volume toys in a high volume company.

They won't give them up. The plants are planning on incremental start ups. They will just leave them until last. The first cars to hit the market will be the high volume cash producers such as the lower trim economy models. They will work their way up from there depending upon sales of course.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Probably, but I suspect a large portion of these sitting on lots will be used by employees of said locations to do upgrades.

Also, as I recall, in the last C4C you had to own the car (registered in your name) for 1 year before you could trade it in.

I think you're right about the registered owner holding period on the last go around. If any of the speculation holds, the new C4C program would have a longer program duration possibly allowing someone to buy and hold a beater long enough to qualify.

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by why?

20 mpg sucks. Once someone experiences 45 + mpg and only filling the gas tank once a month it is very hard to go back. I hope the solid state batteries are really light, it would be amazing for lightweight cars like ours to be a hybrid.

Sorry, that's my personal threshold for 'acceptable'/'not awful', I know it's not great but again I'm going off the belief that building a new car is more impactful to the environment than scrapping an old car that's still got another 100k miles of life with reasonable emissions associated.

I have the same experience as Dadhawk, range is a useless metric for efficiency since I get more range out of the old family F150 with ~18mpg and a >20 gallon tank than my FRS, it's obviously not an amazing experience paying >2x as much for that same biweekly fill up.

We've had ~40mpg vehicles for almost 40 years now, there'd be more of them still on the road if it wasn't for the first C4C program.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find...n=sbs&id=11698

I see mid-90's Hondas and Toyotas all the time around here that a new C4C program will gobble up, the people who need those cars and 'upgrade' to a mid 00's car will likely see a decrease in fuel economy. Or they'll take out a loan to get an early '10's car and keep themselves in a debt hole. It seems that fuel economy gains were fairly flatline in the 00's, most people who can't afford a >$10k car are not going to be upgrading to a 40+ mpg vehicle any time soon.


Sure it's a different economy in the snow belt that I don't fully understand, getting some of those rusty chassis off the road is likely a good thing, but it's still a regressive policy funneling funds to those who should be able to survive without it.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

They won't give them up. The plants are planning on incremental start ups. They will just leave them until last. The first cars to hit the market will be the high volume cash producers such as the lower trim economy models. They will work their way up from there depending upon sales of course.

As fate would have it, I got an email today from GM that they are taking nonbinding reservations on the new 2021 Escalade.

https://www.cadillac.com/future-vehi.../reserve-yours

Of course that really just means they are collecting names for when they really do have them to reserve.