Cash for Clunkers talk heating up

[Atmo]

A month ago I was leaning toward "no way". Today, with obscene amounts of helicopter money being proposed for non-virus projects, I'm past neutral toward "possibly".

There's speculation about what C4C v.2.0 might become, but if it should happen I'm thinking that the 60% US content rule would survive in the era of "Keep America Great".

That means the two Toyota sporty models wouldn't make the cut and surprisingly some Ford and GM sporty products wouldn't either.

A couple analysis I read showed that only certain models of Mustang or Camaro would make the 60% U.S. content cut but those analysis used different models and we all know how reliable scientific models have been this year so who knows?

Hypothetically, if I were looking for an eligible C4C performance car it would be interesting to pencil out a Camaro 2SS (not sure if ZL1 would make the price or mpg cut) and if eligible go hunting for a beater trade-in.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/get...ys-51587295800

[Dadhawk]

It's an interesting thought, but with all the speculation in that article it's hard to tell what would actually qualify. You'd have to buy a 60% US parts car, that gets 50% better gas mileage than the one you trade in, would have to have self-driving features, and cost less than $60K.

That's a pretty heavy list of requirements for a $5,000 certificate, when even the trashiest of operating cars these days is worth a few thousand dollars. So maybe you net a value of $2,000 at best to buy a car you may or may not want?

[Tcoat]

LOL argues with me there will be no auto industry impact from this and then links an article that says much of what I said.

Fun times.

Barron’s spoke with Jonas recently about how the car industry can survive the shutdown, and how it might be left changed.

And of course, we were still selling cars [in 2008 and 2009] even though demand fell. The factories were still running and we didn’t have the complete weight of the fixed costs burden with virtually no production.

Because without that, what I fear is that if the auto industry loses the next two or three years due to economic shock, then we take a business that’s important for employment and national security, and we take its chances of being relevant in the global mobility market long-term, and we reduce it substantially.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

It's an interesting thought, but with all the speculation in that article it's hard to tell what would actually qualify. You'd have to buy a 60% US parts car, that gets 50% better gas mileage than the one you trade in, would have to have self-driving features, and cost less than $60K.

That's a pretty heavy list of requirements for a $5,000 certificate, when even the trashiest of operating cars these days is worth a few thousand dollars. So maybe you net a value of $2,000 at best to buy a car you may or may not want?

I don't think it is coincidence that these are also the exact cars that the manufacturers will want to pump out in volume to build cash flow back up!
They will have great deals on those and leave the toys and big expensive SUVs and luxury models until very last. If they make them again at all.

[Yoshoobaroo]

50% better gas mileage than the one you trade in

That's a lot. Anyone that drives a decently economical car won't qualify.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

LOL argues with me there will be no auto industry impact from this and then links an article that says much of what I said.

Fun times.

Barron’s spoke with Jonas recently about how the car industry can survive the shutdown, and how it might be left changed.

And of course, we were still selling cars [in 2008 and 2009] even though demand fell. The factories were still running and we didn’t have the complete weight of the fixed costs burden with virtually no production.

Because without that, what I fear is that if the auto industry loses the next two or three years due to economic shock, then we take a business that’s important for employment and national security, and we take its chances of being relevant in the global mobility market long-term, and we reduce it substantially.

Pitiful. Just when I thought you couldn't dig any deeper, you stoop to fabricating something I never said.

Then you double down and quote a guy who doesn't work in the the auto industry, just another financial analyst, and as recently as last month was bullish on industry viability and particularly Cash For Clunkers at the end.

It sounds very stressful in your company with senior executives running around hysterically swearing like you quoted in another thread. That sort of stress works from the top down and makes lower level staff irrational too.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

It's an interesting thought, but with all the speculation in that article it's hard to tell what would actually qualify. You'd have to buy a 60% US parts car, that gets 50% better gas mileage than the one you trade in, would have to have self-driving features, and cost less than $60K.

That's a pretty heavy list of requirements for a $5,000 certificate, when even the trashiest of operating cars these days is worth a few thousand dollars. So maybe you net a value of $2,000 at best to buy a car you may or may not want?

This $225 beauty might work.

https://www.copart.com/lot/34072760

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Atmo

Pitiful. Just when I thought you couldn't dig any deeper, you stoop to fabricating something I never said.

Then you double down and quote a guy who doesn't work in the the auto industry, just another financial analyst, and as recently as last month was bullish on industry viability and particularly Cash For Clunkers at the end.

It sounds very stressful in your company with senior executives running around hysterically swearing like you quoted in another thread. That sort of stress works from the top down and makes lower level staff irrational too.

LOL YOU posted the material I quoted from.
Your backpedaling will be fun.

Last month everybody was optimistic. This month not so much.
Yur undying faith in the industry is commendable but falsely positive.
The industry is a worldwide thing not just the USA and it is in big trouble.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

LOL YOU posted the material I quoted from.
Your backpedaling will be fun.

Last month everybody was optimistic. This month not so much.
Yur undying faith in the industry is commendable but falsely positive.
The industry is a worldwide thing not just the USA and it is in big trouble.

So you think I didn't notice that you quoted from my post? Odd.

If you thought everyone was optimistic last month, you may not have access to industry daily sales reports that motivated Toyota to offer dozens of new incentives this month that I posted. At first you mocked them, maybe still do, but they're working.

During my auto industry career I had only two of many bosses who ruled through fear. I get it, some underlings are susceptible to that style and it winds up destroying their effectiveness. I hope it doesn't consume you, too. Incidentally, both of those bosses were eventually fired.

Strange that I recall you suggesting in one of the COVID threads in the beginning that the models might be too pessimistic and it turned out you were right to have that positive attitude.

Yet now you're ignoring the fact of increasing Toyota sales every week this month. It isn't faith, it's innovative, hard working people throughout the Toyota system from the boardroom to the dealership lot attendant.

I'm not saying the sales increase is a trend yet, but senior executives have enough confidence to proceed with factory reopenings starting May 4th where possible.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Atmo

So you think I didn't notice that you quoted from my post? Odd.

If you thought everyone was optimistic last month, you may not have access to industry daily sales reports that motivated Toyota to offer dozens of new incentives this month that I posted. At first you mocked them, maybe still do, but they're working.

During my auto industry career I had two bosses who ruled through fear. I get it, some underlings are susceptible to that style and it winds up destroying their effectiveness. I hope it doesn't consume you, too.

Strange that I recall you suggesting in one of the COVID threads in the beginning that the models might be too pessimistic and it turned out you were right.

Yet now you're ignoring the fact of increasing Toyota sales every week this month. It isn't faith, it's innovative, hard working people throughout the Toyota system from the boardroom to the dealership lot attendant.

I'm not saying the sales increase is a trend yet, but senior executives have enough confidence to proceed with factory reopening May 4th where possible.

And when they run out of stock?

I also truly question those "sales" numbers anyway.

https://www.autonews.com/sales/toyot...rater-covid-19

https://www.thedrive.com/news/32859/...l-be-far-worse

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

And when they run out of stock?

I also truly question those "sales" numbers anyway.

https://www.autonews.com/sales/toyot...rater-covid-19

I understand that you question anything that doesn't fit into your belief system. Most people are like that and I'm not immune so have to check and balance opinions with facts.

I didn't read your link about March sales when we're talking about April sales. I get 29 pages of Toyota internal reports daily covering the 50 states. I've no need to make up fictitious quotes or data.

I recall that you work for one of the OEM suppliers but not which one. Does your company do any business with TEMA?

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

It's an interesting thought, but with all the speculation in that article it's hard to tell what would actually qualify. You'd have to buy a 60% US parts car, that gets 50% better gas mileage than the one you trade in, would have to have self-driving features, and cost less than $60K.

That's a pretty heavy list of requirements for a $5,000 certificate, when even the trashiest of operating cars these days is worth a few thousand dollars. So maybe you net a value of $2,000 at best to buy a car you may or may not want?

the 50% better mileage requirement is almost going to kill this dead in the water for the majority of people. many people bought semi-economical suv's the last go-round of c4c. with the exception of truck owners looking to downsize after coming to terms with their small dink, i don't think there's a significant amount of 50% less efficient vehicles on the road any more.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Atmo

I understand that you question anything that doesn't fit into your belief system. Most people are like that and I'm not immune so have to check and balance opinions with facts.

I didn't read your link about March sales when we're talking about April sales. I get 29 pages of Toyota internal reports daily covering the 50 states. I've no need to make up fictitious quotes or data.

I recall that you work for one of the OEM suppliers but not which one. Does your company do any business with TEMA?

Yes we do. I can not and will not discuss the current state of their orders.
The March sales are relevant in that all are expected to go down in April. Of course you won't read them since they counter your claims and support what I have been saying.
I repeat the USA is NOT the world automotive market no matter what Toyota USA may think. This is a global issue.
I do not see how there are these increases you clam. The industry (including your precious Toyota) was already in decline in 2019 this situation is on top of those bleak forecasts. Just go read.
Those sales do not create cash flow for Toyota anyway since those cars were already paid for.

[strat61caster]

I hope not, c4c ate up the bottom end of the used car supply and that only hurts people at the bottom who right now can find serviceable vehicles for $1.5k-$3k. This is a hand out to auto manufacturers propping up a broken economic system that pursues profit growth at all costs when these auto manufacturers need to think long term about how to provide responsible transit to this country which will likely mean reduced volume and increased quality. I believe keeping an old car on the road for more years is less damaging to the environment than manufacturing a new one.

And the emissions improvements will be shit, most cheap cars on the roads are capable of 20+ mpg and reasonable emissions levels, it's a farce when the vast majority of emissions are created by global companies who lobby hard to not have to update their cheap and dirty infrastructure.