You just wait...

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Well, they are more of a technology company than just a car company like how Samsung is more than an electronics company vs Apple.

BUT, the caveat is that Tesla has many fingers in luxury items, so solar will take a hit, luxury cars will take a hit and investing in grid storage will take a hit, but it is also possible they are positioned better because of it. Often times the ones who get hit the hardest are the lower class workers, as a percentage of their incomes and their ability to recover as fast or at all, so maybe luxury sales won't take as large a hit. Who knows?



https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25332508

Ironically enough it is probably the luxury end of things that will survive this the best!

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I'm sure it will have long term ramifications for many people and industries. I just think it is too soon to suggest the situation is worse than the 2008 recession. It definitely could be.

It is a boom for many people right now.

My knowledge with what is happening isn't isolated to our little kingdom. We are all hurting. My vendors, every single one of them, is laying people off in mass. I don't have one that is business as usual and am actually surprised that we are able to hang on with a full staff still. Manufacturing on a whole is taking a huge hit.

Not going to comment on who this is booming for right now except to say the prices I have seen on the coronavirus test seem to be around $3k on average with numbers ranging from 1k-6k. Obviously depending on insurance.

[Spuds]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

The whole purpose of my original statement was that if you want a new Twin you better buy one soon because in all probability what ones already exist are the end of them. I really hope that I am wrong but I highly doubt I am.

And here I thought I had another year to make the decision...

What do I dooooooooo...

[Lantanafrs2]

I wonder how much is going to be billed for donated ppe and use of donated equipment

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I just think it is too soon to suggest the situation is worse than the 2008 recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ur-of-lockdown
Edit; non-paywalled article, 5 million more unemployment claims last week, 20 million unemployment claims in the last four weeks, more than the job gains of the last decade combined lost in a month.





Edit2: and to the point of Tcoat's, agree if you want an 86 the clock is ticking as the chassis approaches a decade in production, it will be gone by 2022 and the production was already tapering due to lack of demand. I think you'll still be able to find a new one come the end of this year but given an economic crisis completely axing a 2021 model might be on the table for Toyota.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ur-of-lockdown
Edit; non-paywalled article, 5 million more unemployment claims last week, 20 million unemployment claims in the last four weeks, more than the job gains of the last decade combined lost in a month.

Edit2: and to the point of Tcoat's, agree if you want an 86 the clock is ticking as the chassis approaches a decade in production, it will be gone by 2022 and the production was already tapering due to lack of demand. I think you'll still be able to find a new one come the end of this year but given an economic crisis completely axing a 2021 model might be on the table for Toyota.

Same graph. Same argument. I've already posted my answer. Unemployment benefit claims may not best reflect the situation.

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Oh no, there goes the 2nd gen 86, Supra and GR band.

I'll quote myself, so you guys can see that I was already on-board with what Tcoat said. In fact, I kinda said it first--in a way.

https://www.ft86club.com/forums/show...41&postcount=2

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Unemployment benefit claims may not best reflect the situation.

I'd love to live in a world where getting a new job happens as quickly as losing a job does and every business that got rid of people is just waiting for governing bodies to turn back on their lights and rehire everyone. Even if that's true for 50% of the money/employment losses we're projected to see over the coming weeks that will be way worse than '08.

Edit: and if it wasn't clear I didn't read the rest of this thread lol

[humfrz]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

No your illustration of the point is accurate. The point isn't whether all those people are receiving full benefits or returning to work soon but the simple fact that NOTHING beyond essentials is being made.
The impact goes well beyond the obvious.


The 2008 recession permanently closed hundreds of smaller parts suppliers. This shifted the power base in the industry from the car companies to the remaining parts suppliers. The car companies could no longer run rough shod over the parts companies since they could not just go next door and get the same thing. One of the results of the situation was the common contract clause that parts ordered were paid for if delivered or not. As I have said too many times now the only way the car companies could get out of those were if there was a disaster that prevented them making cars. That would have little impact on the overall industry if one plant burned to the ground and they could not build a certain model or two. The impact when it is all plants in the world is beyond imagination. The trickle down from this extends to the parts manufacturers, the people that make the components for those parts, the people that refine the materials to make the parts for the parts and the people that mine the minerals that start it all. It is not just the assembly plants involved here.


Now, on this whole "it will just eat into profits" thought process. Profits are not what makes a company run. Cash flow is. There is NO cash flow in the whole industry right now. None. Nada. Zip. This will kill places no matter what their end of year profit is or would have been. In order to stop the cash bleed there will be massive cuts in those areas that do not create flow. Areas such as R&D, new product launch, low volume/profit products are going to be shelved indefinably. Even when things start up again these areas are going to remain on that shelf since THEN they will be looking at profit.


I wish I could share much of what is discussed by the very high level industry leaders on our calls but I simply can't. I will just say that what is going to happen has never occurred before and it will be deep and long term. All this is not going to just go away when things return to "normal" even if the stock market soars and other industries hardly get touched.

Name dropper -

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

I'd love to live in a world where getting a new job happens as quickly as losing a job does and every business that got rid of people is just waiting for governing bodies to turn back on their lights and rehire everyone. Even if that's true for 50% of the money/employment losses we're projected to see over the coming weeks that will be way worse than '08.

Edit: and if it wasn't clear I didn't read the rest of this thread lol

There will be many losses, but it remains to be seen.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...ans-2020-04-08

Some of the article...

Scores of workers, likely running into the millions, have either been furloughed in the past few weeks or soon will be because of an unprecedented closure of the U.S. economy to fight the deadly coronavirus scourge.

Can furloughed workers get jobless benefits?

Yes, absolutely. Any full-time or part-time worker who is furloughed, laid off or had their hours reduced due to the coronavirus is eligible for expanded unemployment benefits.

It doesn’t matter if the furlough is for an entire month or just one week in a month.

Why furloughs instead of layoffs?

Most companies hope to reopen soon. They need experienced employees to get business back up and running and reconnect with customers. Trying to train new employees in such uncertain times could slow those efforts and prove even more costly at a time when companies can’t afford any missteps.

By sharply raising unemployment benefits during the coronavirus crisis, the federal government has actually given companies such as Macy’s an incentive to furlough employees, letting the government bear most of the cost of their unemployment.

Congress made the payout so generous in part to give businesses an incentive not to cut payrolls permanently. Businesses would also have more room to continue paying health and retirement benefits if they weren’t still covering payroll costs.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by humfrz

Name dropper -

No. It is an accurate statement with the only intent behind it to support that the information I have is factual and not my personal "theory" or "opinion". There is far more that we are being told but if we share and are caught then firing would be the least we would get. It is German company after all.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

There will be many losses, but it remains to be seen.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...ans-2020-04-08

Some of the article...

Wonderful of the government to pay people 50% or less of their income. How noble of them.

As I said many of the auto sector will never return to work so "furlough" is all smoke and mirrors anyway. The ones that do will lose much of what they made before through prolonged pay cuts.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

I'd love to live in a world where getting a new job happens as quickly as losing a job does and every business that got rid of people is just waiting for governing bodies to turn back on their lights and rehire everyone. Even if that's true for 50% of the money/employment losses we're projected to see over the coming weeks that will be way worse than '08.

Edit: and if it wasn't clear I didn't read the rest of this thread lol

He works at a hospital so has no idea what the real world is going through.

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

There will be many losses, but it remains to be seen.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...ans-2020-04-08

Some of the article...

Oh great, they have the promise of returning to a job in 6-8 weeks, I'm sure that'll pay rent, put food on the table, and keep many industries rolling since they'll happily sell to people with just an iou.

My parents just sent me a bunch of stuff about auto incentives, I'd love to go car shopping except for the part where my household is taking a 30% reduction in income for the foreseeable future.

40% of Americans don't have the ability to cover an unexpected $400 expense, despite what that article says unemployment benefits rarely exceed full time employment pay at their previous job. Millions of people are going to be fucked over the next month and our economy will stall. Get your head out of the sand.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/20/here...d-expense.html

[humfrz]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

No. It is an accurate statement with the only intent behind it to support that the information I have is factual and not my personal "theory" or "opinion". There is far more that we are being told but if we share and are caught then firing would be the least we would get. It is German company after all.

....and so, what is the worst you would get?