You just wait...

[JD001]

Originally Posted by DarkPira7e

Why wait months? Wait 10 years and they'll be SUPER cheap. Damn, I should be a fortune teller.

You're not???

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by LimitedSlip

Supporting evidence?

There is no hard evidence for anything. It's all politicized at this point. Models were inaccurate and were touted by media to create fear, boost ratings and sell advertising. One side underplayed it for obvious reasons and the other side overplayed it to make the other side look bad. It's a mess of opportunism created by the deaths of thousands

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

There is no hard evidence for anything. It's all politicized at this point. Models were inaccurate and were touted by media to create fear, boost ratings and sell advertising. One side underplayed it for obvious reasons and the other side overplayed it to make the other side look bad. It's a mess of opportunism created by the deaths of thousands

FUCK another thread I can go into and read all the political crap!

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

FUCK another thread I can go into and read all the political crap!

How about header design?

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

How about header design?

That I can deal with!

[Atmo]

Back on topic, yesterday a Florida friend in the car biz said that Carvana and CarMax dealers there are full of recent model year inventory and are no longer buying anything. That's an indicator that used prices are starting their correction mentioned in the first post in what's normally one of the hottest new and used regions of the U.S.

Not surprising given the economic data getting worse by the day, and we've a ways to go.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Atmo

Back on topic, yesterday a Florida friend in the car biz said that Carvana and CarMax dealers there are full of recent model year inventory and are no longer buying anything. That's an indicator that used prices are starting their correction mentioned in the first post in what's normally one of the hottest new and used regions of the U.S.

Not surprising given the economic data getting worse by the day, and we've a ways to go.

There will still be a segment of the population that will still insist on buying new no matter what happens to used prices. It will certainly knock many makes and models values way down. It will probably not impact the "performance" and sports car market much though since there are no fleets of them being unloaded in bulk. Be a great time to buy if you are looking for a white base trim Camry, Focus or Malibu though.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

There will still be a segment of the population that will still insist on buying new no matter what happens to used prices. It will certainly knock many makes and models values way down. It will probably not impact the "performance" and sports car market much though since there are no fleets of them being unloaded in bulk. Be a great time to buy if you are looking for a white base trim Camry, Focus or Malibu though.

I might have to dust off my auction pass to attend a manufacturer's specialty auction like Lexus later this year. Not that I'd buy but more for market research and Lexus auction hospitality with their impressive catered lunches.

[Lantanafrs2]

Industry will rebound and adapt. Different doesn't necessarily mean bad.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

Industry will rebound and adapt. Different doesn't necessarily mean bad.

The "rebound" will be in a direction that may not be "bad" for some but totally suck for others. There is no real way of predicting how the bounce will happen but it will probably be like trying to dribble a brick.

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

The "rebound" will be in a direction that may not be "bad" for some but totally suck for others. There is no real way of predicting how the bounce will happen but it will probably be like trying to dribble a brick.

I was a machinist for 35 years. I watched at least a few companies go from booming to defunct. Glad to be a spectator now, rather than a participant. Older I get, the less I know lol

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

I was a machinist for 35 years. I watched at least a few companies go from booming to defunct. Glad to be a spectator now, rather than a participant. Older I get, the less I know lol

The problem this time is it is all automotive worldwide. The downturn in 2008 was rough on the industry and it was a minor blip compared to this.

[Spuds]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

The problem this time is it is all automotive worldwide. The downturn in 2008 was rough on the industry and it was a minor blip compared to this.

In case noone believes you...

4-week average of initial unemployment claims per week. Just the US, but it's a good indicator for how much demand for new cars will plummet.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Spuds

In case noone believes you...

4-week average of initial unemployment claims per week. Just the US, but it's a good indicator for how much demand for new cars will plummet.

That graph paints a picture that is likely worse than the reality.

The mortgage and financial market collapse of 2008 that hit industries like the auto industry hard were systemic problems.

This pandemic will come and go. Individuals and companies will eat into their savings then business should largely return. People who were cut will get rehired back like a reverse scenario of seasonal employment. Some businesses that are operating without reserves and within tight margins might file bankruptcy or depend on the government for stimulus, loans or bailouts, but I just can’t imagine the same type of long term market drop, distrust and loss of faith in the economy, and restructuring that we saw during the last recession.

Also, I’m wondering if unemployment claims equals unemployed people because someone can file for unemployment and be denied, they can file for it when getting a large cut in hours, but still are employed, and people can file for it when furloughed, but technically they still have a job to return to when things end.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/...e-useless/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...-pandemic.html