BRZ/FR-S Used Resale Value / Depreciation

[Rexpelagi]

I have been noticing a disturbing (to me) trend with these cars, and wanted to see if anyone else has noticed this.

I bought a 2013 BRZ Premium about 1 year ago. I am eligible for Subaru supplier pricing, so I got a pretty reasonable deal on it. I've generally enjoyed the car quite a bit, although the obvious complaint of no power is there.

What I've noticed recently though is that the used prices on these cars have fallen dramatically. Now I know they aren't all in this range, but 2013 Scions can now be found for 18-19k with 10k mi or less - I know, because a friend bought one for this. Similarly, the Subarus can be found for ~20k if you look, and a semi-local guy is selling his BRZ premium for this with 25k miles.

Now I know a new car can take a hit in the first year, but historically Toyota and Subaru resale has been quite strong. MSRP on a 2013 Premium with no options was mid-26k I believe, and generally they had some options, so 27k was probably more realistic.

Now it seems that these cars that really don't have much discounting up front have lost ~25% of their value in just 1 model year.

These cars were in very high demand for the first year of production, so what has changed now? Or does this depreciation seem reasonable to you guys?

[TM]

Originally Posted by Rexpelagi

MSRP on a 2013 Premium with no options was mid-26k I believe, and generally they had some options, so 27k was probably more realistic.

The BRZs can be had for way lower than MSRP, unless maybe if you're in California.

When I was shopping around for a BRZ a year ago AND looking around for a replacement BRZ half a year ago, there were a good amount of new BRZ Limits available for $25-26k.

[86-tundra]

I think you will see it start to settle. but I am doubting any FR-S for 18-19k with <10k miles. You can sell that to the dealer or carmax for at least 21. and they aren't in the business of losing money

[Rexpelagi]

Originally Posted by trevorovert

I think you will see it start to settle. but I am doubting any FR-S for 18-19k with <10k miles. You can sell that to the dealer or carmax for at least 21. and they aren't in the business of losing money

They are out there, if you look. My friend picked up his private-party for just under 19k, and I know there are others out there. I could pick up a BRZ premium for around that, locally, if I didn't already have one (again private-party).

I don't think everyone always thinks about Carmax but I hope you are right on that valuation.

[Tt3Sheppard]

I think it also depends on what part of the country you are purchasing. I check autotrader a few days ago and they had used FR-S for sale with 10-30k miles for 20k or more.

[Shady195]

Originally Posted by Tt3Sheppard

I think it also depends on what part of the country you are purchasing. I check autotrader a few days ago and they had used FR-S for sale with 10-30k miles for 20k or more.

^^

Location and time of year matters. Theres been a 2013 BRZ Premium for sale by me for at least a year now, they refuse to budge on the 25k sticker they have on the window. Even after recieving a SWP 2015 BRZ with the STi goodies for only a mere 32k

Another dealer was asking ~24k and change for a Limited with 18kmi on it.

A scion dealer was asking 23k for an FR-S with with ~18kmi on it

I've seen a few pop up from non toyota/Scion dealers for 19K or so with under 10k on them, however any scion/toyota dealer especially if certified even with 10-20k on them your looking at $20-23k at least in my area.

My Certified 2013 had a $22,800 price tag with 24k on the clock. It took A LOT of work for them to come back at me with a reasonable price. Ended up taking it for 20 and some change out the door (which certified used from a dealer I think is a pretty damn good price, however im going through some bullshit with some paint defects/rustnig which is a problem considering it was certified and should not have passed that certification with those defects. Dealer is working to make it right however)

[LXXXV1]

Realize that the resell value of a 1-2 year old car will have to take a pretty big loss when some lots still have new ones for sale. $25K brand new, or $22K for a 1 year old car...you shouldn't buy this car if you can't save up $3k in a few months...or just finance an extra $3k. Isn't that why they lowered the price of the BRZ? To create a bigger gap between the WRX? Same reason why the resell value of young used cars take a bigger loss.

[extrashaky]

Originally Posted by Rexpelagi

Or does this depreciation seem reasonable to you guys?

Yes. Remember that with the 2015s out, we're now in the third model year, so the 2013s are two years old in car years. Cars usually depreciate 15% to 25% in the first year and around 15% each year thereafter. Average depreciation would put a base model 2013 that originally sold for $26K in the area of $17K to $18K about now. So it sounds like the cars you're seeing for sale are actually holding their value pretty well. Kelley actually shows the value of the 2013 BRZ Premium at $19.5K from a private party or $22K certified pre-owned.

I think the relatively low depreciation on our cars is a reflection of the fact that it's a limited supply to a niche market. I really don't see that changing until some decent competitors come along. Kelley puts the expected depreciation on this car at around 50% at the five year mark, which is just about average.

[Griever423]

Originally Posted by extrashaky

Yes. Remember that with the 2015s out, we're now in the third model year, so the 2013s are two years old in car years. Cars usually depreciate 15% to 25% in the first year and around 15% each year thereafter. Average depreciation would put a base model 2013 that originally sold for $26K in the area of $17K to $18K about now. So it sounds like the cars you're seeing for sale are actually holding their value pretty well. Kelley actually shows the value of the 2013 BRZ Premium at $19.5K from a private party or $22K certified pre-owned.

I think the relatively low depreciation on our cars is a reflection of the fact that it's a limited supply to a niche market. I really don't see that changing until some decent competitors come along. Kelley puts the expected depreciation on this car at around 50% at the five year mark, which is just about average.

I paid 23k back in March for my 2013 Premium with 6k miles. The prices the OP is posting seem accurate.

[EAGLE5]

I saw some cheap twins in the sf area, but they were salvage titles. I bet a lot of cheaper cars have damage.

[Luke]

Almost every new car is a very poor investment (not even an investment really, just a liability). You have the initial drop when your drive off the lot and it keeps dropping quickly for about the next 5 years. After that the drop levels off a bit and loses value much slower.

Never buy a new car if you plan on selling in just a couple of years. Buy lightly used, so the hit isn't as hard if you do plan on selling in a few years. Drive it for a long time if you've bought new and don't want to lose too much.

Remember, if you don't have plans to sell or need to sell, it doesn't matter what they are valued at, you only lose money when you actually sell.

[Rexpelagi]

Originally Posted by Luke

Almost every new car is a very poor investment (not even an investment really, just a liability). You have the initial drop when your drive off the lot and it keeps dropping quickly for about the next 5 years. After that the drop levels off a bit and loses value much slower.

Never buy a new car if you plan on selling in just a couple of years. Buy lightly used, so the hit isn't as hard if you do plan on selling in a few years. Drive it for a long time if you've bought new and don't want to lose too much.

Remember, if you don't have plans to sell or need to sell, it doesn't matter what they are valued at, you only lose money when you actually sell.

To give you some background, I've owned 12 different cars in the last 4 years. Most of them were purchased used - the last new car I bought only lost around 10% in a year, and that was a brand/vehicle that doesn't traditionally hold value like a Subaru. It was also purchased with similar timing, where the next year's model was already out so it too was being sold when the same vehicle was available 2 'years' newer. I just didn't expect to see the twins in the teens so quickly.

[eikond]

Originally Posted by Rexpelagi

To give you some background, I've owned 12 different cars in the last 4 years. Most of them were purchased used - the last new car I bought only lost around 10% in a year, and that was a brand/vehicle that doesn't traditionally hold value like a Subaru. It was also purchased with similar timing, where the next year's model was already out so it too was being sold when the same vehicle was available 2 'years' newer. I just didn't expect to see the twins in the teens so quickly.

The part you are missing is that your car is two years old, not just one.

I bought my 2013 BRZ premium (at supplier discount rate = invoice) in May, 2012. So I've had it for more than two years now... whereas you've only had it for one year.. despite this, we have the same model year. I think I could get high 19's for it.. I generally consider $3k depereciation for the first year and $2k per year afterwards pretty reasonable..

So $3k less than MSRP when you buy it (to compensate for discounting on sticker price and the "used car hit")
$2K less when the 2014's came out
$2k less when the 2015's came out.

so I'd say at the moment, my expectation for "normal" depreciation would be $7k less than sticker.. So $26k - 7k = $19,000

[extrashaky]

Originally Posted by Rexpelagi

Most of them were purchased used - the last new car I bought only lost around 10% in a year, and that was a brand/vehicle that doesn't traditionally hold value like a Subaru.

That was abnormal. Here's why:

During the recession and the long slow recovery, people wanted to save money, so they were looking for used cars instead of new ones. At the same time, people who had good used cars were hanging onto them longer rather than selling. So you had higher demand AND reduced supply, causing the prices of used cars to go up.

Used cars were holding their value better as a result, to the point that people were paying almost as much for used cars as new ones. The off-the-lot drop was almost non-existent for some cars. Clark Howard was actually advising people to buy new cars if they planned to keep them longer than a couple of years because the used cars were not discounted enough to justify the reduced lifespan and higher operating costs.

Unfortunately that was not a normal pattern, and it had to correct itself eventually. Even though the economy has been improving for a while, it has only just recently really gotten back to normal. The depreciation we're seeing on the twins really is not bad compared to what we ought to be seeing.

Welcome to reality. If you don't want your car to lose value from what you paid, don't buy new.

Originally Posted by Rexpelagi

To give you some background, I've owned 12 different cars in the last 4 years.

It's kind of amusing that someone who is willing to take the hit on three cars per year would be complaining about depreciation.