Twins future question

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

There was more than just projected sales numbers behind the birth of this car and if the business case still supports the plan then they will make something as a second gen. We are not privy to that business case nor plan and anybody that truly is will not open their mouth beyond authorized statements.

FWIW Akio Toyoda still isn't giving up on the idea that Toyota needs to be less boring. Doesn't mean shit for the 86's future (other than the mk1 will likely see full term and be produced past 2020), but I think odds are good Toyota will keep something affordable and sporty in the lineup for the foreseeable future.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

FWIW Akio Toyoda still isn't giving up on the idea that Toyota needs to be less boring. Doesn't mean shit for the 86's future (other than the mk1 will likely see full term and be produced past 2020), but I think odds are good Toyota will keep something sporty in the lineup for the foreseeable future.

Exactly! The 86 is the physical embodiment of them sticking their tongues out at the critics and saying "Boring eh?".

[SlowCarFast]

Assuming a 7 year full model cycle:

If the 2nd gen is still happening, it is in the final stages of virtual design. They will start hand building test mules and cutting tooling within the next year. In ~2 years the first test units will roll out of the factory and we will get the first camo shots.

Note that until the tools are finished being cut, Toyota/Subaru can and will cancel the entire project/model. I have seen projects get cut very late in development. Toyobaru is currently evaluating the market and deciding whether or not all the engineering they are currently investing in gen 2 with be worth the investment.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by SlowCarFast

Assuming a 7 year full model cycle:

If the 2nd gen is still happening, it is in the final stages of virtual design. They will start hand building test mules and cutting tooling within the next year. In ~2 years the first test units will roll out of the factory and we will get the first camo shots.

Note that until the tools are finished being cut, Toyota/Subaru can and will cancel the entire project/model. I have seen projects get cut very late in development. Toyobaru is currently evaluating the market and deciding whether or not all the engineering they are currently investing in gen 2 with be worth the investment.

Exactly.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by SlowCarFast

Assuming a 7 year full model cycle:

If the 2nd gen is still happening, it is in the final stages of virtual design. They will start hand building test mules and cutting tooling within the next year. In ~2 years the first test units will roll out of the factory and we will get the first camo shots.

Maybe I'm not understanding the use of the term "7 year full model cycle" but given that we are already in year 5 since the car was released, your description doesn't seem to lend itself to 7 years, but more like 9 to 10.

[SlowCarFast]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Maybe I'm not understanding the use of the term "7 year full model cycle" but given that we are already in year 5 since the car was released, your description doesn't seem to lend itself to 7 years, but more like 9 to 10.

Basically, I am assuming 19 would be the last model year (could be 20 though) and they would announce gen 2 late summer and you would be able to see them on dealer lots by the end of 19 or early 20.

The current trend is to only build the exact number of units you need to do testing and to build them all within a year before you go mass pro. Cuts down on your physical development time. Companies can save a lot of money this way, but it usually makes the first sellable cars that roll off line very rough.

[JD001]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Maybe I'm not understanding the use of the term "7 year full model cycle" but given that we are already in year 5 since the car was released, your description doesn't seem to lend itself to 7 years, but more like 9 to 10.

It's not happening.. as you say we're well into the product's lifecycle and I'm sure we would seen or heard something. Toyota will focus on the new Supra and develop something smaller with BMW. Subaru will retreat further and go back to their main focus, farmers and their wants..

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by SlowCarFast

Basically, I am assuming 19 would be the last model year (could be 20 though) and they would announce gen 2 late summer and you would be able to see them on dealer lots by the end of 19 or early 20..

OK, I was thinking more calendar years than model years. Calendar years puts year 7 in 2019 since the car was sold as early as Q1 2012 in some markets as I recall.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

OK, I was thinking more calendar years than model years. Calendar years puts year 7 in 2019 since the car was sold as early as Q1 2012 in some markets as I recall.

Everybody we make parts for (almost everybody) run in 3 or 4 year cycles now. Doesn't mean that they do a new gen every 3 or 4 years but that is the norm for refreshes and moderate upgrades. So We got a refresh in 16 (for the 17 models) so if we are going to see anything 2020 would be my bet.

[Gforce]

And remember low volume cars can have extended production cycles.

The Miata started life with an eight year cycle, followed by seven and ten year cycles. On top of that the first significant redesign was for the current generation. Previous models were pretty close repeat iterations of the same basic car.

The problem facing Subaru is Toyota wants to build a replacement car with a Toyota engine.

Subaru could just keep building the same BRZ for a long time yet. It is a fairly small car making arm of a very big company.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Gforce

And remember low volume cars can have extended production cycles.

The Miata started life with an eight year cycle, followed by seven and ten year cycles. On top of that the first significant redesign was for the current generation. Previous models were pretty close repeat iterations of the same basic car.

The problem facing Subaru is Toyota wants to build a replacement car with a Toyota engine.

Subaru could just keep building the same BRZ for a long time yet. It is a fairly small car making arm of a very big company.

You had me and then blew it.
Says who?

[8RZ]

Originally Posted by Gforce

And remember low volume cars can have extended production cycles.

The Miata started life with an eight year cycle, followed by seven and ten year cycles. On top of that the first significant redesign was for the current generation. Previous models were pretty close repeat iterations of the same basic car.

The problem facing Subaru is Toyota wants to build a replacement car with a Toyota engine.

Subaru could just keep building the same BRZ for a long time yet. It is a fairly small car making arm of a very big company.

Wrong, The NC (third gen) was the first complete re-design, and was hated by all.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by 8RZ

Wrong, The NC (third gen) was the first complete re-design, and was hated by all.

Secretaries loved it!

[funwheeldrive]

How could anyone hate a car that is so happy???