Twins future question

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by imnotsureaboutbrz

Subaru did announce a new engine... FA24DIT. A pipe dream for the BRZ but its going in the Ascent SUV.

Yes but they are not going to throw away the investment in the current Fa20 to start making new versions for a one off sports model. The old FA20 series will soldier on with minor upgrades until they get their money's worth out of it. Hell, they based the whole new global platform around the Fa20 so it isn't going anyplace.

[truenosan]

Originally Posted by accel

My dream would be if they moved the boxer engine in the back...

Get a Porsche. Problem solved

[sofrsnsokleen]

I was thinking about that the other day. Since Scion ended up "dying" and the twins haven't really been selling like hotcakes cakes, even with the Toyota refresh, I honestly think they won't make it much longer. I don't think they can carry 3 sporty cars Supra,86, and the lower spec alleged new Celica. The twins were a labor of love it seemed and not enough people "got" it. I'm actually kinda hoping they kill off the twins sooner rather than later. Mainly because lower production makes it slightly more collectible in the long run. I know there's tons of them out there now but if they stop production soon, in 10-20 years they'll be scarce, especially in Scion trim.
I really think the twins will be a car that gets cult status once they stop. Too many people took this car at face value.

[Cole]

Originally Posted by sofrsnsokleen

I was thinking about that the other day. Since Scion ended up "dying" and the twins haven't really been selling like hotcakes cakes, even with the Toyota refresh, I honestly think they won't make it much longer. I don't think they can carry 3 sporty cars Supra,86, and the lower spec alleged new Celica. The twins were a labor of love it seemed and not enough people "got" it. I'm actually kinda hoping they kill off the twins sooner rather than later. Mainly because lower production makes it slightly more collectible in the long run. I know there's tons of them out there now but if they stop production soon, in 10-20 years they'll be scarce, especially in Scion trim.
I really think the twins will be a car that gets cult status once they stop. Too many people took this car at face value.

What are you on about? If they stop production in the next year or 2, there will be more FRS' on the road than BRZ or 86's.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...ru/subaru-brz/
http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...on/scion-fr-s/

According to those numbers, the FRS sold WAY more than the BRZ in NA, like, right around double, every year.

[darthpnoy1984]

Originally Posted by Cole

What are you on about? If they stop production in the next year or 2, there will be more FRS' on the road than BRZ or 86's.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...ru/subaru-brz/
http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales...on/scion-fr-s/

According to those numbers, the FRS sold WAY more than the BRZ in NA, like, right around double, every year.

The car has done quite well already the only thing it has going against it is priced for used ones are too good to pass up or heck if your brave enough someone can totally build this up ones revived at auctions for less than 10K all the b:&;&:& about power is so ludicrous and don't really get it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by darthpnoy1984

The car has done quite well already the only thing it has going against it is priced for used ones are too good to pass up or heck if your brave enough someone can totally build this up ones revived at auctions for less than 10K all the b:&;&:& about power is so ludicrous and don't really get it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is where things can go sideways fast though. The reason that the used ones are priced so low is that there are so many for the market. There are so many for the market because they are still selling new ones. Take the new ones out of the equation and the supply of used also dwindles which forces the price up. The prices are very low right now but that could change n a heartbeat if the supply drops. Check the prices in some of the areas where used ones are still not common and you will see they are still going for a good amount.
As far as rebuilds go they really don't have a huge impact on the market anyway. Let's be optimistic and say that for each car totaled 50% get brought back to a street worthy condition. That other 50% that become scrap, parts or a dedicated race car sort of balances out the numbers since they were removed from market.
The whole use car value thing is a very delicate balancing act with supply and demand setting the price.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by sofrsnsokleen

I was thinking about that the other day. Since Scion ended up "dying" and the twins haven't really been selling like hotcakes cakes, even with the Toyota refresh, I honestly think they won't make it much longer. I don't think they can carry 3 sporty cars Supra,86, and the lower spec alleged new Celica. The twins were a labor of love it seemed and not enough people "got" it. I'm actually kinda hoping they kill off the twins sooner rather than later. Mainly because lower production makes it slightly more collectible in the long run. I know there's tons of them out there now but if they stop production soon, in 10-20 years they'll be scarce, especially in Scion trim.
I really think the twins will be a car that gets cult status once they stop. Too many people took this car at face value.

It really wasn't a Toyota "refresh". If Scion had still been around they would have received exactly the same treatment. Only the badge changed and it had nothing to do with the refresh.
The other cars (if they actually come to market) will be in totally different price ranges and target groups. The impact would be minimal. Not many here are cross shopping a new Vette against a new 86 and that would be what the price difference would do.

My broken record speech still stands in that it doesn't matter what the sales numbers are without knowing what the planned production levels were. If they planned to build 1,000 cars and sold all 1,000 of them then the sales are just fine. If they planned to build a 1,000 and had demand for 1,200 then the sales would be through the roof (and they may not be able to meet that demand). If they planned to build 1,000 and only sold 100 then sales tanked and the model would be in trouble. Now, of course we have no idea what their sales plan was so it could actually be any of those three scenarios but I think that if there was a huge field of unsold ones someplace or they were slashing and burning the price (Look up the Aztec to see what I mean for both those) we would probably have heard about it. They never intended to sell these cars in Corolla numbers so low sales stats mean nothing when looked at separate from the rest of the required data.

[kakacarrotcake]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

My broken record speech still stands in that it doesn't matter what the sales numbers are without knowing what the planned production levels were. If they planned to build 1,000 cars and sold all 1,000 of them then the sales are just fine. If they planned to build a 1,000 and had demand for 1,200 then the sales would be through the roof (and they may not be able to meet that demand). If they planned to build 1,000 and only sold 100 then sales tanked and the model would be in trouble. Now, of course we have no idea what their sales plan was so it could actually be any of those three scenarios but I think that if there was a huge field of unsold ones someplace or they were slashing and burning the price (Look up the Aztec to see what I mean for both those) we would probably have heard about it. They never intended to sell these cars in Corolla numbers so low sales stats mean nothing when looked at separate from the rest of the required data.

May or may not be relevant, but Toyota has sold 2400 of the "only 8600 made" US model Toyota 86 as of April. So that puts them on track to sell 7200 for the year? Not exactly the numbers they're looking for.

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

My broken record speech still stands in that it doesn't matter what the sales numbers are without knowing what the planned production levels were.

Subaru claimed 100k per year worldwide. Add in the 8600 target for 86s, special editions sitting on lots months after they arrive, I think it's fair to say they marginally overestimated demand.

http://www.autoblog.com/amp/2012/03/...-86-and-scion/

Whether or not that still qualifies as 'successful' for subieyota none of us will likely ever know, last I looked they hadn't yet hit 200k total but may cross that threshold later this year. Maybe you're right and this is exactly what they wanted, an easily accessible coupe that would draw people into the Toyota fold, the whole loss leader theory.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

Subaru claimed 100k per year worldwide. Add in the 8600 target for 86s, special editions sitting on lots months after they arrive, I think it's fair to say they marginally overestimated demand.

http://www.autoblog.com/amp/2012/03/...-86-and-scion/

Whether or not that still qualifies as 'successful' for subieyota none of us will likely ever know, last I looked they hadn't yet hit 200k total but may cross that threshold later this year. Maybe you're right and this is exactly what they wanted, an easily accessible coupe that would draw people into the Toyota fold, the whole loss leader theory.

We don't know the target.
In fact their source for that number is highly suspect: " According to FT86club.com, Yasayuki Yoshinaga, president of Fuji Heavy Industries, has announced that his company will produce 100,000 units per year at the Subaru plant in Ota City, Japan. (That figure accounts for every iteration of the sports coupe.)" It is a click bait blog quoting a forum as the source. I would like to see the Subaru document that states exactly what their annual goals were/are. Companies rarely provide such information unless you sit on the board of directors or are a major shareholder. Publicizing your business plans is not generally a good way to run a business and Toyota/Subaru are pretty well known for knowing how to run a business.

As far as some sitting on lots for months goes that is not a great indicator either. Some may sit in one area but be totally unattainable in another. That particular dealer may just not give a crap and not even attempt to move it where another may be out ponding doors looking for a buyer. Special editions are not good sales indicators anyway since they take a niche product and tuck it even further back into a corner.

We can present all the theories and rationalizations we want but the reality is they have thousands of people working on estimating sales and setting targets and they are not amateurs so they will be very close in their numbers. Many people here (not you Strat I know you understand) seem to think that these decisions are made by two guys over coffee a week before the car is scheduled to come out or that the production can be raised or lowered with a flip of a switch but that is just not the way the industry works. They plan what to make and they make what they plan it is as simple as that.

There was a business case presented well before the first concept drawing hit the design table and that case cold very well be a low volume loss leader vehicle to raise awareness of the sports segment. There is not a hope in hell that a business case was presented and accepted that said vehicle was ever expected to sell in family sedan numbers. None, nada, zip, zilch. Ford has very publicly stated that they make nothing on the top levels of the Mustang if sold at MSRP. They make their money from the identify of the vehicle being associated with all the rest of their cars and trucks.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by kakacarrotcake

May or may not be relevant, but Toyota has sold 2400 of the "only 8600 made" US model Toyota 86 as of April. So that puts them on track to sell 7200 for the year? Not exactly the numbers they're looking for.

They sold 2400 of them with a release in January. It is only May. Look at the historical sales rates of the winter months vs the spring and summer months. Not everybody lives and buys cars in perpetually summer California or Florida. They haven't even come into peak sales season yet so it is not inconceivable that they could sell out. Hell, some are not even received yet so it isn't like they have been sitting.

Just for the sake of argument let's say the did only sell 7,400 of the 8,600. That is only a 15% miss. Not sure what business/jobs everybody is in but do you think you could predict your tasks within 15% a year in advance?

[Spuds]

As far as technical development goes, I would not expect anything major. They​ nailed the chassis right out of the gate, and it looks pretty good for the price range. Only thing that would sell better would be to add power. Subaru has the go fast(er) know-how, but my guess is Toyota holds the cards contractually/money-wise. Since the two brands are still competitors with separate leadership, I don't see Subaru giving Toyota a turbo, nor Toyota paying Subaru to develop a better/bigger engine for Subaru's lineup.

That being said, contracts can have an expiration date...

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Spuds

As far as technical development goes, I would not expect anything major. They​ nailed the chassis right out of the gate, and it looks pretty good for the price range. Only thing that would sell better would be to add power. Subaru has the go fast(er) know-how, but my guess is Toyota holds the cards contractually/money-wise. Since the two brands are still competitors with separate leadership, I don't see Subaru giving Toyota a turbo, nor Toyota paying Subaru to develop a better/bigger engine for Subaru's lineup.

That being said, contracts can have an expiration date...

I again dispute the statement that more power will sell more units. If they apply it across the board then for every sale gained due to the installation of a turbo they will lose one from people that will be intimidated by the car. The average Joe and Jane buyer can be nervous already with the RWD handling and to add more power would remove them from the costumer base. Most people buys these are not "'Cuz racecar". Besides they have said over and over and over that they do not EVER intend to make this a high powered Pony Car. Subaru has high powered cars as options and Toyota just isn't into it. Like special editions it just narrows the pool of buyers down to the point where it makes no sense to do it.

If available as an option there could be a slight uptick in sales but then the price would be that much higher and may put it out of reach of the targeted more power yo crowd. That, and no matter what they did there would still be the group saying it isn't enough and that they refuse to buy it until it meats there precise wants (which will probably not meat anybody else's)

[Th3rdSun]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

I again dispute the statement that more power will sell more units. If they apply it across the board then for every sale gained due to the installation of a turbo they will lose one from people that will be intimidated by the car. The average Joe and Jane buyer can be nervous already with the RWD handling and to add more power would remove them from the costumer base. Most people buys these are not "'Cuz racecar". Besides they have said over and over and over that they do not EVER intend to make this a high powered Pony Car. Subaru has high powered cars as options and Toyota just isn't into it. Like special editions it just narrows the pool of buyers down to the point where it makes no sense to do it.

If available as an option there could be a slight uptick in sales but then the price would be that much higher and may put it out of reach of the targeted more power yo crowd. That, and no matter what they did there would still be the group saying it isn't enough and that they refuse to buy it until it meats there precise wants (which will probably not meat anybody else's)

I disagree with that. I think there are many more people that passed on the car because it's underpowered than any other factor. All you have to do is read almost any comment section of any Youtube review of this car to confirm that.

Whether it be NA or FI,if this car had more power it would almost undoubtedly sell better,assuming that the price is not much higher to scare people off.