Terrible Resale Value?

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

A lot of people aren't financially savvy enough to think of a car this way, but are financially savvy enough to think they're making a wise gamble on re-sale value and plan to 'upgrade' to something else in 3-4 years. The same kind of people that buy a car based solely on the monthly payments.

"What can I get for $XXX/month and trading in my car?" is probably uttered a frightening amount of the time.

Especially people in the Subieyota family where a 4Runner, Tacoma, Forester, Camry, Legacy etc. doesn't lose more than a couple thousand over a few years. Suddenly being $10k+ in the hole probably had some loyal Toyota and Subaru customers blowing gaskets.

Especially after their salesman reassured them "Oh of course resale will be excellent it's a Toyobaru! Just check out our buyback program blah blah blah."

I totally agree with you, but I also understand why people are griping. But it's their fault for not doing enough research or allowing themselves to trust a salesman.

And some of how certain cars don't depreciate is more myth than fact. People love to say "well I got $XXXX for my YYYY when I traded it in" when in fact that was an inflated trade in price that the dealer gave to seal the deal.
Taking the list you provided which are some of the most common vehicles held up as "holding their value" and we soon see that the reality is not what people seem to think!

Car Price / Five year depreciation (Edmunds Calculator) / % depreciated
Legacy $16,970 ... $10,605 ... 62%
4 Runner $40,603 ... $16,970 ... 41%
Tacoma $40,598 ... $8,839 ... 21%
Forester $28,216 ... $12,212 ... 43%
Camry $26,320 ... $12,416 ... 47%
STi $37,663 ... $13,762 ... 36%

BRZ $30,165 ... $10,807 ... 35%
FRS $27,149 ... $11,522 ... 42%

Now of course there are special versions or desirable years that have lower depreciation but when comparing apples to apples base models (except the STi of course) the only thing that is really any better is the Tacoma. Isn't even fair including it in the calculation though since all pickups hold value better.

[Gunman]

The market for an 86 is very niche, did you people not see the Toyota commercial? Small market, low demand, and demand drives price.

[lowlevel]

Originally Posted by Pacific Auto

Is it just me or does our twins have a terrible resale value?

I have had my car casually posted on and off for a couple months without a single legit person interested. Start the listing at $19k and slowly lowered it to $16750 now.

When I first listed there wasn't many private ads, listed at $17-19k. Now there are 10 listed at $15k-16k.


I think the two major issues are:

1. These cars are mainly bought by 20 year olds with no cash or are too stupid to go to the credit union. So majority are buying from dealers instead of private sales.

2. 2017's are now out. Dat red manifold yo!

Thoughts?

I kind of felt this wasn't a good car to buy used... A new one is more affordable than a mustang... but a used one is probably driven harder and maintained worse by the majority of it's 18-22 year old owners. *shrug*

[Gil Scott Heron]

I think a lot of young people nowadays are so used to dealing with institutions that they are afraid to even call an actual individual private seller.

Having said that, I bought my 86 new because it was not that much more expensive than a used BRZ that met my mileage and age criteria. Free oil changes for a couple of years ain't a bad incentive either.

[Yardjass]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

And some of how certain cars don't depreciate is more myth than fact. People love to say "well I got $XXXX for my YYYY when I traded it in" when in fact that was an inflated trade in price that the dealer gave to seal the deal.
Taking the list you provided which are some of the most common vehicles held up as "holding their value" and we soon see that the reality is not what people seem to think!

Car Price Five year depreciation (Edmunds Calculator) %
Legacy $16,970 ... $10,605 ... 62%
4 Runner $40,603 ... $16,970 ... 41%
Tacoma $40,598 ... $8,839 ... 21%
Forester $28,216 ... $12,212 ... 43%
Camry $26,320 ... $12,416 ... 47%
STi $37,663 ... $13,762 ... 36%

BRZ $30,165 ... $10,807 ... 35%
FRS $27,149 ... $11,522 ... 42%

Now of course there are special versions or desirable years that have lower depreciation but when comparing apples to apples base models (except the STi of course) the only thing that is really any better is the Tacoma. Isn't even fair including it in the calculation though since all pickups hold value better.

Well I can tell you right now that Edmunds is wrong. You won't touch a 5 year old STI or Tacoma unless you pay twice that price or more unless the Tacoma is a single cab 2wd that was probably a work truck with a hard life and never cost 40 grand to begin with.

I recently looked at a '13 STI. Still well over 20 grand and it was the cheapest I could find in reasonable condition. Tacomas around here are one of those vehicles that lose 2 grand when you drive them off the lot and then about 500 bucks annualy after that.

[Cole]

Originally Posted by Yardjass

Well I can tell you right now that Edmunds is wrong. You won't touch a 5 year old STI or Tacoma unless you pay twice that price or more unless the Tacoma is a single cab 2wd that was probably a work truck with a hard life and never cost 40 grand to begin with.

I recently looked at a '13 STI. Still well over 20 grand and it was the cheapest I could find in reasonable condition. Tacomas around here are one of those vehicles that lose 2 grand when you drive them off the lot and then about 500 bucks annualy after that.

You do realize the second number is how much it depreciated, and not its market value, right?

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Yardjass

Well I can tell you right now that Edmunds is wrong. You won't touch a 5 year old STI or Tacoma unless you pay twice that price or more unless the Tacoma is a single cab 2wd that was probably a work truck with a hard life and never cost 40 grand to begin with.

I recently looked at a '13 STI. Still well over 20 grand and it was the cheapest I could find in reasonable condition. Tacomas around here are one of those vehicles that lose 2 grand when you drive them off the lot and then about 500 bucks annualy after that.

Those are most certainly averages and they do not claim they are written in stone. Regional preferences will give some variation and I already stated that there are certain years or versions that will not meet the norm.
The numbers I presented are the projections on 2016 base models and do not represent what the depreciation is on some of the more popular versions. That was very deliberate because I knew perfectly well that people would start throwing examples of other vehicles into the mix. I totally agree that there are many that do not meet this norm but there are many many more than that which do meet it. If you read my whole post you should have noted that I did specifically point out that the Tacoma and ALL other pickup trucks are a bad example to compare with passenger cars because they do not follow the same deprecation curve. Pick up trucks never have and probably never will since they are a different category completely. Using them as a benchmark for the Twins is like saying that the cars all depreciate horribly since I compared it to a 1955 first edition Corvette that has gone up in value by 400%.


The point of the exercise was that not all of the vehicles claimed to be great value holders really are and that in the real world the Twins do not lose value any worse than average. The data shows that very clearly and is far more reliable (even in it's very general assumptive manner) than individual anecdotal evidence of "well I wanted to buy a XXX and they were all $YYY so that is the way it is everyplace".

[nextcar]

Originally Posted by Cole

You do realize the second number is how much it depreciated, and not its market value, right?

I was going to post that myself...

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Cole

You do realize the second number is how much it depreciated, and not its market value, right?

Originally Posted by nextcar

I was going to post that myself...

There. Edited the post so it should be clearer (at least to those that actually read whole posts and not just the parts they don't agree with)

[Yardjass]

Originally Posted by Cole

You do realize the second number is how much it depreciated, and not its market value, right?

I hadn't caught that. It makes sense now...

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Those are most certainly averages and they do not claim they are written in stone. Regional preferences will give some variation and I already stated that there are certain years or versions that will not meet the norm.
The numbers I presented are the projections on 2016 base models and do not represent what the depreciation is on some of the more popular versions. That was very deliberate because I knew perfectly well that people would start throwing examples of other vehicles into the mix. I totally agree that there are many that do not meet this norm but there are many many more than that which do meet it. If you read my whole post you should have noted that I did specifically point out that the Tacoma and ALL other pickup trucks are a bad example to compare with passenger cars because they do not follow the same deprecation curve. Pick up trucks never have and probably never will since they are a different category completely. Using them as a benchmark for the Twins is like saying that the cars all depreciate horribly since I compared it to a 1955 first edition Corvette that has gone up in value by 400%.


The point of the exercise was that not all of the vehicles claimed to be great value holders really are and that in the real world the Twins do not lose value any worse than average. The data shows that very clearly and is far more reliable (even in it's very general assumptive manner) than individual anecdotal evidence of "well I wanted to buy a XXX and they were all $YYY so that is the way it is everyplace".

I think the thing that pops out to me the most with them is that being a sports car, some of them don't get used that much. A babied one that somebody garage kept and put 15,000 miles on in four years still takes a huge depreciation hit when they sell it. In general, it is not hard at all to find these things in decent condition and with the sort of mileage that your average person would rack up in a year or two, sometimes even less mileage. That's a pretty big drop looking from here. A four year old civic/corolla/camry/accord with less than 15,000 original miles is a rarity and something that fetches a premium. Even limiting a search locally, anyone in a large city can find a twin like that fairly easily.

I'm not sure what it is. Maybe all the morons who beat theirs up are dragging down the value. Maybe it is the low demand. Seems to me these are dropping in value a little quicker than they should, especially considering the values of some lesser cars that they'll soon be colliding with.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Yardjass

I hadn't caught that. It makes sense now...



I think the thing that pops out to me the most with them is that being a sports car, some of them don't get used that much. A babied one that somebody garage kept and put 15,000 miles on in four years still takes a huge depreciation hit when they sell it. In general, it is not hard at all to find these things in decent condition and with the sort of mileage that your average person would rack up in a year or two, sometimes even less mileage. That's a pretty big drop looking from here. A four year old civic/corolla/camry/accord with less than 15,000 original miles is a rarity and something that fetches a premium. Even limiting a search locally, anyone in a large city can find a twin like that fairly easily.

I'm not sure what it is. Maybe all the morons who beat theirs up are dragging down the value. Maybe it is the low demand. Seems to me these are dropping in value a little quicker than they should, especially considering the values of some lesser cars that they'll soon be colliding with.

Low demand in some areas brings down the average. Other areas are still paying higher though. A lot of the perceived low value is coming out of California where supply greatly outweighs demand. When you look at the east coast they are still selling for more since there are far fewer.
It doesn't help that so many people get the new ones for under invoice since that drives the resale value way down as well.

Everybody wants to pay bottom dollar when they buy and get top dollar when they sell but by paying less up front they are part of the reason that the price drops on used ones. *Did that make any sense to anybody but me?

[Yardjass]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Low demand in some areas brings down the average. Other areas are still paying higher though. A lot of the perceived low value is coming out of California where supply greatly outweighs demand. When you look at the east coast they are still selling for more since there are far fewer.
It doesn't help that so many people get the new ones for under invoice since that drives the resale value way down as well.

Everybody wants to pay bottom dollar when they buy and get top dollar when they sell but by paying less up front they are part of the reason that the price drops on used ones. *Did that make any sense to anybody but me?

Makes sense to me. We've been over this but the truck assholes buy low and sell high. Too bad we can't too.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Yardjass

Makes sense to me. We've been over this but the truck assholes buy low and sell high. Too bad we can't too.

I have never been able to figure out why used trucks hold the value they do. Even beat to crap work trucks can go for a good dollar. May do a bit of research on that.

[why?]

everyone wants to be able to buy a used one with low miles for under $10k so they can spend all their money on mods.

Originally Posted by Tcoat

I have never been able to figure out why used trucks hold the value they do. Even beat to crap work trucks can go for a good dollar. May do a bit of research on that.

Because they last forever, and their is a large commercial market. When businesses want to buy multiples individual price means less and price of repairs means more, so trucks are hardier, repairs cost less, and trucks are less likely to need repairs.

Also pickups are a step down from box trucks, which really do last forever. half a million miles on a box truck is nothing, and there are tons of them that are from the 80's and even earlier. So old isn't really a big concern or thought of the same way as normal people think of cars. Neither is needing the newest tech.