Ebola Virus...

[murdoc]

Originally Posted by stugray

I dont think I am being intentionally lied to, but I think the govt. is guessing a lot.
What was the #1 thing that both the CDC and the Dallas hospital said was done wrong in the first few days? "we underestimated the threat"
and "we werent properly educated and trained"



Not a troll, but go on.



So lets look at some quick statistics (that I just made up).
IF a trained healthcare worker has a 20% chance of making a mistake and coming in contact with a patient's bodily fluids.
(1 in 5 caretakers)
IF coming in contact with bodily fluids has a 10% chance of transmitting the virus to the "contactor"
(1 in 10 of those that contacted bodily fluids)
(1-in-10 of 1-in-5 is 1 in 50)
Then eleven sick healthcare workers in Nigeria means that 550 healthcare workers came in contact with the patient????

I am sure the "actual" statistics in my assumptions are actually much lower.

So this means one of three things:
1 - there is a greater chance of transferring bodily fluids than we think in a hospital situation
2 - There is a greater chance that bodily fluid contact results in contagion transfer
OR
3 - There is another transferal mechanism that we do not understand.



Definitely not in a corner.

Oh, I am definitely learning, and I am not trolling.

I actually looked for a medical definition of "airborne".
It means:
" carried through the air. In health care settings, viruses or bacteria may become airborne, e.g., when someone sneezes or coughs"
So a virus can be "airborne" if it can be contracted by sneezes or coughs.

Ebola fits this definition - period.
HOW can anyone say (with a straight face) that Ebola is NOT an airborne threat?
Even the CDC has now said 3 feet is a risk - SO the CDC is saying that "Ebola is a threat even if you do not physically touch the person" " But it is not airborne"
WAIT WHAT?

Clearly there is some misinformation out there.

That's...that's just not how statistics works. At all...

Also, 3 feet is a risk because someone can reasonably touch something within 3 feet...how is that not obvious to you?

Your entire post is just one big assumption made from bogus statistics you admittedly just made up.

In conclusion, you are trolling.

The guy in Nigera was an absolute asshole who basically did every horrible thing a person exposed to EVD could do.


He lied about being exposed, flew to another country, and then went into a rage when diagnosed.

"upon being told he had Ebola, Mr. Sawyer went into a rage, denying and objecting to the opinion of the medical experts. 'He was so adamant and difficult that he took the tubes from his body and took off his pants and urinated on the health workers, forcing them to flee."

[stugray]

Originally Posted by murdoc

That's...that's just not how statistics works. At all...

BUllshit! Then lets hear your version of "how statistics work".
In your defense - You are right, they do not work like that.
A more accurate analysis would make the point more in MY favor.

Originally Posted by murdoc

Your entire post is just one big assumption made from bogus statistics you admittedly just made up.

In conclusion, you are trolling.

Yes made up with numbers that are likely an order of magnitude exaggerated against my side of the arguement.

Originally Posted by murdoc

The guy in Nigera was an absolute asshole who basically did every horrible thing a person exposed to EVD could do.

Ok, that might explain the skewed results.


All I am asking for is ONE person to say "Gee it sure seems like this is more contagious than 'Not airborne' can explain".

Yet no-one will address the elephant in the room.

And you dont see a contradiction in the CDCs explanation of "not airborne but...."?

[murdoc]

Originally Posted by stugray

BUllshit! Then lets hear your version of "how statistics work".
In your defense - You are right, they do not work like that.
A more accurate analysis would make the point more in MY favor.



Yes made up with numbers that are likely an order of magnitude exaggerated against my side of the arguement.



Ok, that might explain the skewed results.


All I am asking for is ONE person to say "Gee it sure seems like this is more contagious than 'Not airborne' can explain".

Yet no-one will address the elephant in the room.

And you dont see a contradiction in the CDCs explanation of "not airborne but...."?

Until we have evidence that people are getting sick without touching bodily fluids or contaminated surfaces, there is no reason to conclude that people are getting sick without touching bodily fluids or contaminated surfaces.

I don't know how much simpler I can put it.

[HunterGreene]

Originally Posted by murdoc

Until we have evidence that people are getting sick without touching bodily fluids or contaminated surfaces, there is no reason to conclude that people are getting sick without touching bodily fluids or contaminated surfaces.

I don't know how much simpler I can put it.

Also, once again, I feel forced to point this out: The people, including his girlfriend Duncan shared an apartment with, who were around him when he started displaying symptoms and vomiting, have been cleared from quarantine as of this past Sunday (10/19). They did not contract ebola.

Stu--If there was another transmission method people didn't know about, how in the name of Sweet Baby Jesus did these people not get infected?

[stugray]

Originally Posted by HunterGreene

Stu--If there was another transmission method people didn't know about, how in the name of Sweet Baby Jesus did these people not get infected?

As I said before, I bet there is a narrow window where the transmission IS airborne. We just dont know precisely where that window is.
Maybe it is in the last stages (right before death, or even right after) and typically there are only health care workers around at the time.

I appreciate the responses. I am not trying to be a ****, just an engineer's perspective on it.
At work we would do a fishbone diagram analysis to determine the failure mode.

So far one of the bones that has not been dis-proven is "Previous assumption invalidated by new information" Namely - disease IS airborne.

It is still hard to argue with this assertion: "There is a significantly higher incidence of accidental transmission to trained health care workers than anticipated by currently understood methods of transmission"

[Tcoat]

Geeez I put a man with a hockey stick, riding a moose in the room and nobdy paid attention so the elephant is doomed!


Stu, there is a valid reason why nobody will say what you want but no form of facts will convince you of it so....

[Tcoat]

You know what is sad... A Humour site that probably has more accurate reports on some subjects than many news sites!
http://www.cracked.com/photoplasty_1...ll-believe_p2/

[Ultramaroon]

Originally Posted by HunterGreene

Also, once again, I feel forced to point this out: The people, including his girlfriend Duncan shared an apartment with, who were around him when he started displaying symptoms and vomiting, have been cleared from quarantine as of this past Sunday (10/19). They did not contract ebola.

Stu--If there was another transmission method people didn't know about, how in the name of Sweet Baby Jesus did these people not get infected?

They were saved by the ghost of another Duncan. (AKA the Double Duncan)

[murdoc]

Originally Posted by Ultramaroon

They were saved by the ghost of another Duncan. (AKA the Double Duncan)

Hey man, I'm a Liberian named Duncan who resembles that guy and i'm offended.

now were's my puke bucket?

[gramicci101]

[stugray]

Mandatory Quarantine against one's will:

"On Tuesday, the state's health commissioner -- without naming Hickox -- warned that the state would force the quarantine if she didn't isolate herself willingly"

Not a "small town" yet, but I have two more days :-)

[Tcoat]

Nigeria Ebola free.
Surely the States will be OK!
That's all I have to say.

[bkblitzed]

We have actual hospitals, we'll be fine..

[Dadhawk]

If you haven't seen it, the Nova special on "Surviving Ebola" is very interesting, discussing the reason this outbreak spread, and what is being done to fight the disease. Definitely worth your time if you have an interest. It shows them growing the most promising treatment in tobacco plants. That in itself is worth watching.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/body/surviving-ebola.html

I'm not a healthcare professional, but because I work in a Medical Center, I have received briefings and instructions on it from our Infectious Disease department. Some interesting facts:

1. It has not proven to be airborne.

2. It has a very short lifespan outside the host, similar to HIV. In fact, at Emory (not where I work) they could not find any of the virus on any surface in the infected patient rooms outside bodily fluids.

3. The virus only spreads from hosts showing symptoms. There is not a high enough concentration to be contagious until the person has a high-grade fever at minimum.

4. More proof that it is difficult to get is that none of the members of "Patient Zero"'s family in Texas has come down with the disease even though he was with them during the early stages.

5. The nurses that did get it from the person in Texas had inadequate (although at the time recommended) levels of safety equipment. They have recovered because it was caught early and they received blood from a recovered patient that had antibodies already in it which helped fight it off.

6. If you get Ebola, and survive it, you become immune to it, or at least the strain of it you get (there are 5 strains, 4 of which can infect humans).