Moto Miwa: First batch of BRZ's and FRS left Japan for Long Beach, CA

[Dave-ROR]

Originally Posted by Spaceywilly

According to the USA Today article the first BRZs won't be at East Coast dealers until late May, so this could be the Eat Coast boat.



I'll swing by Quonset Pt tomorrow and see what I can find, but I am 99% sure there's nothing there. If the cars were on the ground we'd have vins and ETAs from our dealers

VINs show when they are loaded onto the trucks, not when they are unloaded from the RoRo.

If that boat goes to the EC figure latish May, then customs, paperwork, logistics.. June...

I don't really care too much, the car will arrive when it does. I don't need it to arrive early, but I'm not convinced that some aren't here yet. They started making the US cars a long time ago, why wait so long to ship some? 500 cars is nothing to add to a ship that left in early April..

[Subaruwrxfan]

Originally Posted by eikond

I don't have any facts.. this is purely a guess.. But here's what I think..

A few weeks ago they predicted April 20th as a ship date. Sounds like one of the ships left on the 23rd. This is technically only one day late thanks to the weekend.

Some google-fu shows that most large container ships (and I assume car-carriers as well) can travel at about 25 knots cruising speed.. Let's factor in slow down for high traffic areas and harbor approaches and we'll knock the average down a few.. Say 22 knots. That is about 25 mph.

We know that FRS and BRZ come from the same plant, so it would make sense that they would go to the same port... Long Beach as discussed earlier in this thread. So I'm predicting LA area as destination for both cars.

5450 miles give or take.. at 25 mph = 218 hours or a little over 9 days. I think this is consistent with what Jack Hollis said at the first86 event last week.

So if the ship left on the 23rd, I would think arrival in Long Beach would be likely on May 1st or 2nd.

There is a thread in FRS section that says a guy in Portland is already expecting deliver on May 6th.. That might be possible if his car is on a truck and out of the port in a day or two.

But, let's say 1 week in port and 1 more week in transit to the rest of the midwest/west regions.. Seems to me that the "mid-May" predictions are very reasonable.

The one tracking site gave an ETA of May 15th, and it's currently only traveling at 17.5 knots.

[Dave-ROR]

Originally Posted by Subaruwrxfan

It's just a port, not a dealership. Considering they're coming out of the same factory, I can't imagine Toyota not allowing Subaru to put cars there. Customs does not take long, I was generous in saying they'll be in port for a week. My friend's car cleared customs in 2-3 days.

I doubt Subaru is going to handle distribution differently from any other Subaru. Pointless.. stop in Portland and drop off Imprezas then goto Long Beach and drop off BRZs?

[Spaceywilly]

Someone posted in the VON thread that our orders will be updated once the ship is in port in a week or two, and that it won't be long after that before we get the cars (at least the people in the first allocation)

He said thAt all us brz orders he has seen are still waitlisted. He said that since there are nit as many brzs being produced that they are a bit alower updating the system. He said that he expects a bunch of updates in a week or two. They often delay updates until the ship reaches port, but once ww hear something it will be quick when we receive the cars

[Dave-ROR]

Originally Posted by eikond

We know that FRS and BRZ come from the same plant, so it would make sense that they would go to the same port... Long Beach as discussed earlier in this thread. So I'm predicting LA area as destination for both cars.

Agreed on same delivery port being possible.. but that RoRo holds way more than a month of US BRZ and FRS, which means other Subarus - not Toyotas. And that means Subaru likely isn't going to change their distribution. It'll stop at the port they use for Subarus, and for the FR-S either another stop at a port used by Toyota or Toyota will just handle a new distribution pattern for the FR-S.

Toyota does basically own Subaru so who knows, but changing logistics for say, 3,000 random Subarus for 500 BRZs just doesn't make much sense. Making a logistics changes for 1,000 or whatever FRS makes more sense.

[eikond]

Originally Posted by Subaruwrxfan

The one tracking site gave an ETA of May 15th, and it's currently only traveling at 17.5 knots.

Ok, so 5450 miles / 20 mph is 273 hours or about 11 days.

April 23 to May 15 is 22 days.

I don't think the ETA on the tracking site is accurate.. There must be other stops en-route to make it take that long.. Maybe Vancouver, WA is one of the stops?

[Subaruwrxfan]

Originally Posted by Dave-ROR

Agreed on same delivery port being possible.. but that RoRo holds way more than a month of US BRZ and FRS, which means other Subarus - not Toyotas. And that means Subaru likely isn't going to change their distribution. It'll stop at the port they use for Subarus, and for the FR-S either another stop at a port used by Toyota or Toyota will just handle a new distribution pattern for the FR-S.

Toyota does basically own Subaru so who knows, but changing logistics for say, 3,000 random Subarus for 500 BRZs just doesn't make much sense. Making a logistics changes for 1,000 or whatever FRS makes more sense.

Well there have been reports that they aren't delivering cars in even amounts every month, but that instead ALL the early preorders will be filled in May/June, with the remaining allocation coming in July/August, and that's it for the year. Who knows. But if this turns out to be true, this whole ship could be filled with BRZs and FR-S's.

[feedbag]

Originally Posted by eikond

Ok, so 5450 miles / 20 mph is 273 hours or about 11 days.

April 23 to May 15 is 22 days.

I don't think the ETA on the tracking site is accurate.. There must be other stops en-route to make it take that long.. Maybe Vancouver, WA is one of the stops?

That's the ETA to Panama, and yeah they'll probably be making a few stops on the way

[Maps316]

Is it possible for the ship to drop the load of BRZs at the Long Beach port and then spread the cars through the nation in a matter of days or maybe a week tops? So basically the alotted cars would hit the west coast first and then quickly spread to the east coast. Cause it seems like it would take longer for the ship to have to go all the way around the continent.

[Subie]

Originally Posted by Subaruwrxfan

Well there have been reports that they aren't delivering cars in even amounts every month, but that instead ALL the early preorders will be filled in May/June, with the remaining allocation coming in July/August, and that's it for the year. Who knows. But if this turns out to be true, this whole ship could be filled with BRZs and FR-S's.

Link?

[Dave-ROR]

Originally Posted by Subaruwrxfan

Well there have been reports that they aren't delivering cars in even amounts every month, but that instead ALL the early preorders will be filled in May/June, with the remaining allocation coming in July/August, and that's it for the year. Who knows. But if this turns out to be true, this whole ship could be filled with BRZs and FR-S's.

I'll believe what Subaru has said officially over those rumors

[Dave-ROR]

Originally Posted by Maps316

Is it possible for the ship to drop the load of BRZs at the Long Beach port and then spread the cars through the nation in a matter of days or maybe a week tops? So basically the alotted cars would hit the west coast first and then quickly spread to the east coast. Cause it seems like it would take longer for the ship to have to go all the way around the continent.

Car manufacturers usually use different ships for cost savings. If you need 10,000 cars a month it's cheaper to send 5,000 to each coast than 10,000 to one and then ship via truck/train 5,000 across the country.

Subaru uses ports on both coasts for that reason. Neither of which are Long Beach, CA

[feedbag]

I feel like the rumor of them all coming at once is just something that's recently happened as hundreds of car salesmen mislead prospective FT-86 buyers into thinking that they're not going to have to wait until November if they put money down on one.

[Maps316]

Originally Posted by Dave-ROR

Car manufacturers usually use different ships for cost savings. If you need 10,000 cars a month it's cheaper to send 5,000 to each coast than 10,000 to one and then ship via truck/train 5,000 across the country.

Subaru uses ports on both coasts for that reason. Neither of which are Long Beach, CA

That makes sense, thats the thing I was a bit foggy on, i didnt know if it would be cheaper to send cars over land or sea. Thanks for clearing that up.

As for the port, doesnt Toyota have a port in long beach so couldnt subaru use it or not?