Toyota and Subaru Officially Confirm Second Gen 86! (September 27, 2019)

[WC-BRZ]

Originally Posted by NorthernDriver

I love the 86 - and the only reason I am holding out is that the design is old. I've been watching this car since 2012 - and if I'm going to drop $30k on a new car I'd rather have a new design for the next 6 +years.

I don't really care if the performance specs are similar - I just want a "fresh" design if that makes sense. A new dash, interior, etc - but a spiritual evolution of the current car. Some of the magic has worn just because the car has been around for a while now.

That being said if my current car dies I'd get an 86 almost immediately - I just have the option to wait now.

At the very least you should test drive the updated 2017+ BRZ/86 - such a pure driving experience

[86MLR]

Originally Posted by soundman98

the less obnoxious but more reputable sources are heavily hinting but not saying (because contractual obligations) the next gen won't be anything like the 1st gen.

buy now.

Which sources are these?

Toyota? Subaru?

Got some linkies?

The only info I can find is on the usual click bait sites, and that is all assumptions, hopes and dreams.

I really would have though something would have been seen by now if a "new" model was being released.

Someone should go "Mission impossible" or all "Firefox" into, and out of Fuji Heavy Industries.

And post on Wikileaks.....

[soundman98]

it's just an 'itch'. that's all i'm saying. follow the breadcrumbs backwards from some of the hakone edition posts.

the media has become one large scale circle jerk of their own misinformation.

[iLuveKetchup]

Originally Posted by soundman98

the less obnoxious but more reputable sources are heavily hinting but not saying (because contractual obligations) the next gen won't be anything like the 1st gen.

buy now.

This makes sense! Why give yourself options? Because you know, when the new gen comes out, the 1st gen will be all gone.

Buy now!

[Jordanwolf]

Originally Posted by NorthernDriver

I love the 86 - and the only reason I am holding out is that the design is old. I've been watching this car since 2012 - and if I'm going to drop $30k on a new car I'd rather have a new design for the next 6 +years.

I don't really care if the performance specs are similar - I just want a "fresh" design if that makes sense. A new dash, interior, etc - but a spiritual evolution of the current car. Some of the magic has worn just because the car has been around for a while now.

That being said if my current car dies I'd get an 86 almost immediately - I just have the option to wait now.

You're setting yourself up, there will always be something new. Why not enjoy things when they are new instead of always waiting for what is new.


What happens if Nissan drops more hints at the next gen 370? 450z? 470z? What happens if Hyundai hints at a next gen Genesis coupe that is actually competitive (think Veloster N).. You just going to keep waiting?

[Dirty Harry]

With the whole Coronavirus pandemic gripping the world. Does anyone else have that sinking feeling that the 2nd gen will be cancelled? Going by the Gloom and Doom news reports it looks like the economy is heading off a cliff. I hope I’m wrong but if there is a global recession and massive job losses, I can’t see a second gen coming along. The business case for a low volume sports car in such an environment would be a lot less viable.

I guess everyone enjoy their 1st gen for now and I hope everyone and their families stay healthy, that’s the most important thing.

Cheers.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

With the whole Coronavirus pandemic gripping the world. Does anyone else have that sinking feeling that the 2nd gen will be cancelled? Going by the Gloom and Doom news reports it looks like the economy is heading off a cliff. I hope I’m wrong but if there is a global recession and massive job losses, I can’t see a second gen coming along. The business case for a low volume sports car in such an environment would be a lot less viable.

I guess everyone enjoy their 1st gen for now and I hope everyone and their families stay healthy, that’s the most important thing.

Cheers.

A lot depends on how far along the process they are. If they have already invested in tooling and signed contracts with the hundreds of parts suppliers they may as well move ahead and at least try to recoup their investments.

The auto manufacturing business is a bit different than what people think of as a manufacturing system. The car companies don't order parts on a weekly or monthly schedule based on what they are making. Parts are ordered for the whole (usually three year) planned production. Once the contract is signed then they are paying for those 3 years worth of parts whether they use them or not. There is no "just cancel the order" or "we actually only want half and that is all we are paying for". They either take the parts or pay massive penalties. When there are so many suppliers involved that can mean it can be cheaper to make the cars and then just scrap them than to not make them at all.

[Dirty Harry]

Or maybe the 2nd gen will have a shortened lifecycle, if what you’re saying is correct. Can’t imagine it being a 10 year lifecycle like the first gen if they don’t sell etc.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by 86MLR

Which sources are these?

Toyota? Subaru?

Got some linkies?

The only info I can find is on the usual click bait sites, and that is all assumptions, hopes and dreams.

I really would have though something would have been seen by now if a "new" model was being released.

Someone should go "Mission impossible" or all "Firefox" into, and out of Fuji Heavy Industries.

And post on Wikileaks.....

There are reliable sources here that can only say so much. You have to have read those if you actually follow these threads. There are at least two that are know to have actual reliable connections that can not give details but both scream "BUY ONE NOW".
On my part it may be confirmation bias but their hints and veiled statements line up exactly with my oft stated thoughts and concerns over where I felt they would take it.
Even If they (and I) am totally off base and the second gen turns out to be a supercar at a throw away price people can't go too far wrong by getting one of the last of the first gen and waiting for the second gen to have a model year or two to work the bugs out.

[extrashaky]

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

With the whole Coronavirus pandemic gripping the world. Does anyone else have that sinking feeling that the 2nd gen will be cancelled? Going by the Gloom and Doom news reports it looks like the economy is heading off a cliff. I hope I’m wrong but if there is a global recession and massive job losses, I can’t see a second gen coming along. The business case for a low volume sports car in such an environment would be a lot less viable.

Perhaps, but I don't think so, for two big reasons:

First, this situation isn't going to last forever. We're going to reach a point where the virus has done what it's going to do and is just an accepted part of living on this planet, like the regular flu.

When that happens, I suspect the economy will come roaring back with a vengeance. It's going to be so sudden that it will make your head spin. There will be so much pent up demand and such a desire to celebrate that people will rapidly return to work and companies will be struggling to crank out product.

In fact, we may be better off than we were before the pandemic, because we haven't ever seen something like this that basically united all the smartest people in the world on a single problem. Not even WWII was this focused. Not even the Manhattan Project was this widespread.

There are suggestions that the field of virology will be changed forever, with hints that some of the vaccine development processes being investigated may provide solutions not only for other viruses but also other types of diseases altogether.

The mobilization to manufacture masks, PPE, respirators and other medical equipment is already opening up new avenues with respect to manufacturing, especially with respect to 3D printing. There are things we knew we could do, but hadn't yet had an economic reason to try. There are things we didn't know we could do until someone asked the question. We're going to learn a lot.

It's going to increase our national productivity (the amount produced per capita) as telework becomes more mainstream. Increased productivity always results in better quality of life for the society as a whole.

It's going to change education forever. Many, many people are already questioning why they're paying so much for college when they're learning just as much through online classes. Taxpayers will start to question why they're paying for public school facilities when we see that the kids can learn remotely. There are a lot of school board members sweating bullets right now about keeping their seats in the next election.

It's going to destroy job-killing bureaucracy. As regulations are lifted during the emergency and we see that we're still safe, we're going to collectively question why they were there in the first place and resist having them reinstated. It may even shrink government in the process. People are going to seriously question why all drugs can't be approved as fast as the ones being reviewed now and why doctors can't always practice across state borders. "Well, the regulations blah blah blah" is not going to be good enough any more.

Further, not all people are going to lose their jobs. There are many of us who are still drawing the same paycheck but spending very little money right now. When the economy comes roaring back, we're going to have money to put into it, combined with an urge to celebrate.

And a lot of us will say fuck it, life's short, I'm buying a sports car. Somebody better be making some for us to buy.

Second, any manufacturer that eliminates its most imaginative or exciting products during this emergency or afterward will pay a huge price for it in sales of the rest of their product lines.

Suppose I'm wrong, and the economy doesn't come roaring back but instead circles the toilet. People will still be looking for things to lift their spirits. That's not the time you kill off your halo product. That's when you want it, even if it's losing money, to pull people into your stores.

If Toyota were to dump their exciting projects in favor of cheap and boring, their sales would slump. Those of us who don't lose our jobs are not going to want depressing products. Those in dire situations are not going to buy new cars anyway.

You might say, but Shaky, Shaky, Shaky... If half the population is hurting, you won't want to be the one buying the flashy, expensive sports car.

To that I say, exactly! I'll buy another BRZ, something fun and uplifting that isn't expensive. The 86 is perfectly positioned to bridge that gap.

Suppose I'm right instead and the economy blasts off. Well, that's self-explanatory.

Either way, boring and depressing will be the wrong answer.

[86MLR]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

There are reliable sources here that can only say so much. You have to have read those if you actually follow these threads. There are at least two that are know to have actual reliable connections that can not give details but both scream "BUY ONE NOW".
On my part it may be confirmation bias but their hints and veiled statements line up exactly with my oft stated thoughts and concerns over where I felt they would take it.
Even If they (and I) am totally off base and the second gen turns out to be a supercar at a throw away price people can't go too far wrong by getting one of the last of the first gen and waiting for the second gen to have a model year or two to work the bugs out.

Or, maybe "buy another one", in my vehicular challenged predicament.

Meh, if you have even half a clue in relation to current trends, the new twins, if they even happen, would be more eco-friendly and full of gadgets for the kids to stay "connected".

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

Or maybe the 2nd gen will have a shortened lifecycle, if what you’re saying is correct. Can’t imagine it being a 10 year lifecycle like the first gen if they don’t sell etc.

I have worked for four Tier One parts manufacturers over the last 30 years and there are some very distinct patterns that do not change much no matter what company the parts were for.

The contracts are usually for 3 years. This may vary a bit but will never be under that. It is incredibly expensive to change equipment over for new products so the suppliers need contracts that long to ensure they are going to make money. This is why you usually see only small changes for several years in any vehicle. If they move forward with the second gen you can be pretty sure it will run for at least those 3 years. The Aztec is a great example of this. They knew in the first year that it was a total flop and still kept building them until the contracts were up. It is rumoured that in the last year they built and then crushed more than they sold.

The car companies are always looking for small changes even during a contracted run. Some changes they pay more for as an addendum to the contract but rarely do they pay less. Almost all of the contracts include a requirement that the ordered parts go DOWN in price over the 3 year period! This can be tricky since the costs to make them invariably go up.

The development of new parts can take two or MORE years! It takes an incredible amount of time all for a part to go through all the different departments of both the car company and the parts maker. It is almost impossible to imagine the time even a simple washer can take. This process trickles down to the places that make the materials that are used to make the parts that make the parts.

All n all there is far far more to it that somebody saying "OK we will make this car now go online and get what we need" so if they are already committed they will build the car. If it is early enough they will cancel it. If it is going to be about a break even to build and not sell any than it is to cancel the contracts they may may decide to take the loss and not move forward.
We shall see.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Jordanwolf

You're setting yourself up, there will always be something new. Why not enjoy things when they are new instead of always waiting for what is new.


What happens if Nissan drops more hints at the next gen 370? 450z? 470z? What happens if Hyundai hints at a next gen Genesis coupe that is actually competitive (think Veloster N).. You just going to keep waiting?

What happens when the new "86" is a hybrid Corolla two door with all the cup holders that the public wants for $40K?

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by 86MLR

Or, maybe "buy another one", in my vehicular challenged predicament.

Meh, if you have even half a clue in relation to current trends, the new twins, if they even happen, would be more eco-friendly and full of gadgets for the kids to stay "connected".

As I have said for the last 2 years.
People here have been screaming for a higher powered, hatch back, with more features and everything else under the sun for a long time and I am afraid that is exactly what is going to be made. It is what always happens when they take a good low volume performance car and turn it mainstream.

Yes "or buy another one" which is exactly why I put my money where my mouth is and did exactly that!