A pessimist's take on sales success / failure

[tripjammer]

Originally Posted by PAImportTuner

FRS doesn't need those std options and follow the Scion bloated theme, it needs more holes in the frame to reduce weight and more hamsters under the hood to get out of it's own way. The FRS is suppose to be a drivers car right? Then all the tC crap needs to stay far away. Doing this should allow for a $21k car with the option to still add accessories, and whatever you want to categorize dealer installed options and accessories is up to them.

It doesn't need 17", LED, HID, 6 Speakers. That is for the Subaru variantS that are starting in the high end of 24k.

You can't confuse the world Toyota model with the US Scion model. The things you saw of those brochures are not for the Scion. Like Aki said it would be suicide to start the Scion at 24k.

WOW the car does not need 17 inch rims? Yeah right...they will never sell it over here with rims smaller than that...its High_Spec or no spec. How is the high-spec even a loaded car? There is no sunroof, no Navigation, no radio If you guys are going for the lesser weight I can understand...45 pounds does make a difference. And I agree with you these specs are all Japanese model specs. The US version might be a bit different...like more or less weight or standard equipment.

WOW auto climate control, HIDS, aluminum pedals, leather steering wheel and smart entry/push start are something most people would not want? They could roll this up in a options package...but Scion don't play that way. If this was gonna be sold by Toyota yes...but its gonna be a Scion....and it probably will come with a radio.

If we are lucky Scion will price the US FR-S at $23k....but figure closer to the mid 20k range.

[yarik83]

I do not know where you lads get your figures from but please stop quoting miata as most successful car. In US in 20 years it has sold just 50,000 more cars than Scion did in few short years it has been here. And that alone goes to prove that while miata is a nice fun car, it is not the answer for a car enthusiast.

Lets talk numbers. Scion tc costs around 21,000. It is a car that replaced 7th generation celica and branded as a different vehicle altogether along side with its sidekicks xa, xb and whatever that other one is. I personally do not like scion but If I had to pick and chose, it barely has any competitors that would draw me away from it. Eclipses have become a vw beetle in disguise, civic si is very hard to spot at least where I live. Most "modern" hondas are driven by adults anyways with cult classics still driven by teenagers (falling apart, held by duck tape but alive and kicking). Lancers simply do not appeal to people. I think in past 4 years I have only seen like 3. Acura rebranded itself to cater to adult demographics so scion is pretty much the only sporty affordable car out there right now.

Along comes FT-86 in whatever form.
Price it low and it will replace TC model which is probable.
Price it high and it will not sell because car enthusiasts would rather go for WRX/EVO
Price it in middle and it will have 20,000-40,000 annual sales and start petering off really fast when the fab wears off.

I figure I am least qualified to speak here since I will likely not buy this car but hear me out:
If it is indeed priced low it HAS to replace scion TC which is declining in sales
This kind of car would appeal to teenagers and to young adults on low income.

If it is indeed priced high then it HAS to have 300 horses and a big turbo or two.
This kind of car would make it worth buying.

I do not see myself spending 20-25 grand on yet another "celica" which looks nice but does not go fast absent a significant financial investment. I want out of the box fast car. I was holding my breath somewhat hoping that ft-86 would follow suit of camaro's where you can order yourself a camaro with this engine, that engine or that engine. So far it does not look like that is the case.

[Dave-ROR]

Originally Posted by yarik83

I do not know where you lads get your figures from but please stop quoting miata as most successful car. In US in 20 years it has sold just 50,000 more cars than Scion did in few short years it has been here. And that alone goes to prove that while miata is a nice fun car, it is not the answer for a car enthusiast.

You missed the "Sports car" part of that most successful quote.

Most Scions are appliances, nothing more. The original post is about sports cars specifically, not every car in the world.

AFAIK the Corolla is the best selling car of all time (better than the beetle even) but that doesn't matter for the point of this thread either.

While many younger people with lower incomes may well want this car (probable even based on pricing comments on the forum) that's not the only market, nor is it really even Toyota's intended target. Even the Scion brand itself has an average purchaser age of 30, which isn't that young really.

[KevinDuMa]

Originally Posted by tripjammer

WOW the car does not need 17 inch rims? Yeah right...they will never sell it over here with rims smaller than that...its High_Spec or no spec. How is the high-spec even a loaded car? There is no sunroof, no Navigation, no radio If you guys are going for the lesser weight I can understand...45 pounds does make a difference. And I agree with you these specs are all Japanese model specs. The US version might be a bit different...like more or less weight or standard equipment.

WOW auto climate control, HIDS, aluminum pedals, leather steering wheel and smart entry/push start are something most people would not want? They could roll this up in a options package...but Scion don't play that way. If this was gonna be sold by Toyota yes...but its gonna be a Scion....and it probably will come with a radio.

If we are lucky Scion will price the US FR-S at $23k....but figure closer to the mid 20k range.

I agree and I think everyone is putting to much on what this car really is. As ethusiasts we've been waiting for a car like this so we know its true function and capababilities but a regular consumer will just see this as another sporty fuel efficient vehicle for a good price. Scion NEEDS this car with the slumping sales and this car would be a good start. As trip said on most cars these options come standard already so we can expect to see the same options as the tC and I can't see this being more than 3-4 grand above a tC. We have to keep in mind that this car is suppose to compete with other cars in its class range and price will play an important factor. The Civic, Miata, GenCoupe and even the tC are competitions I see for this and none of those vehicles break 24 grand. Just remember the youngsters and regular consumers will look at the $19,xxx tC and think it has almost same hp, more tq, a sunroof and more space for 4 or 5 grand cheaper so why not go for the tC?

[madfast]

Originally Posted by yarik83

I do not see myself spending 20-25 grand on yet another "celica" which looks nice but does not go fast absent a significant financial investment. I want out of the box fast car. I was holding my breath somewhat hoping that ft-86 would follow suit of camaro's where you can order yourself a camaro with this engine, that engine or that engine. So far it does not look like that is the case.

hate to break it to ya, but you've been barking up the wrong tree this whole time this car was never meant to be out of the box fast. never. maybe you believed the hype about 300hp turbo motors and 2400 lbs curb weight, but if you read the interviews with the designers, they never say it will be a fast car...

[Allch Chcar]

Well, Scion is designed to be an enthusiast brand so he's not completely offbase. It's not catered to sportscar enthusiasts by any means. But Scion was not designed to be a mass seller, they intentionally market these cars for lower volumes as an entry level brand. They certainly don't profit of the brand...

[yarik83]

What I meant to say was this:

FT-86 base model $21,000 200hp NA etc etc (This could be your toyota version)
FT-86 mid model $25,000 250hp turbo (This could be your scion version)
FT-86 high model $29,000 300hp turbo/twin turbo/supercharged (This could be your subaru version)
Unfortunately TRD has a tendency to overprice their power modifications. For example a supercharger would cost about 3,000-5,000 from the dealership and that is a steep price to pay. A turbo kit will run about 2,000-3,000 from racing shops but it is always better to start off with a more powerful engine than to try and squeeze out power from low hp engine. A turbo kit will give NA 200hp engine about 250hp with proper tune. A turbo kit on NA 250hp engine will put you over 300hp with tune and that is a number that I like.. right over 300.

Is that too much to ask for? Waaaa waaaa.

Instead we get a big question mark from toyota/lexus camp but thats ok because we have scion which is 200hp NA and then we also have a subaru model which is essentially the same thing.

After I survive this uncertain economy my vehicle of choice would be evo x or evo xi, wrx sti sedan unless something comes out of this prodigal child that would be comparable with above cars.

[Buggy51]

Actually 25k is really on the high side if its not even including taxes and all the other fees. I honestly don't see how it will sell for Scion if its over 5k than the tC. Yeah, specs might sell the car, but I think most people actually do look at the economics of things.

Also, the Subaru WRX starts around 25.5k. I don't see how the BRZ model will be effective.

[Aki]

Originally Posted by yarik83

I do not know where you lads get your figures from but please stop quoting miata as most successful car. In US in 20 years it has sold just 50,000 more cars than Scion did in few short years it has been here.

The Miata has been a niche car from the beginning, it's impossible to draw conclusions based on its sale and the whole Scion brand, which includes very mainstream cars such as the xA and Tc.

If it is indeed priced low it HAS to replace scion TC which is declining in sales

I'm not sure you understand how the industry works. There's a 0% chance the FT86 will replace the Scion TC. It came out in 2010, and it needs to have at least a 4-5 year cycle. They're not going to kill it midway. It's the exact opposite; Toyota is hoping the FT86 will boost Scion as a brand, and in turn boost sales of the xA, xB, Tc etc.

If it is indeed priced high then it HAS to have 300 horses and a big turbo or two.

Says who? The Lotus Elise is $50-60k and doesn't even have 200 hp. The Porsche Cayman is under 300 unless you get the R version. The Evo/WRX are heavier, AWD, higher center of gravity, and much less purist-centric. Completely different cars, not even remotely comparable.

I don't get people that want the FT86 to be a WRX STI clone--then just buy an STI. I'm guessing a lot of these posters are younger, and haven't driven enough cars to know that the car with most horsepower isn't always the most fun.

[iff2mastamatt]

Any word on how many FR-S/86s will be produced?

[Buggy51]

Originally Posted by iff2mastamatt

Any word on how many FR-S/86s will be produced?

Some claim around 3000 or so for the BRZ... no idea on Scion.

[Allch Chcar]

Originally Posted by Buggy51

Actually 25k is really on the high side if its not even including taxes and all the other fees. I honestly don't see how it will sell for Scion if its over 5k than the tC. Yeah, specs might sell the car, but I think most people actually do look at the economics of things.

Also, the Subaru WRX starts around 25.5k. I don't see how the BRZ model will be effective.

Price is a big factor and cost per HP is another one that will get most people. $25k MSRP for a Base model is a lot more than all of the other possible contendors. I can't imagine why they wouldn't sell it for close to the tC since even though this car has a lot more R&D than usual, we are talking about a much smaller car with a smaller engines and a completely different market than the tC. The tC is a comfy, sporty FWD coupe but the FR-S is going to be a tiny RWD sportscar by comparison.

If Subaru can offer the WRX, which is bigger, AWD, and turbocharged for <$26k (albeit it doesn't have DI or 6spds where are probably $500 a piece!) why would the FR-S/BR-Z costs that much? The FT86 would become an overpriced novelty if that were true. Mazda can sell a convertible of the same size albeit without DI/6spd for <$24k, why is this car so heavy(200lbs over an NC Miata) and yet automags believe it to be so dang expensive? I'm adding salt to any statement that says this car will MSRP for $25k+ Pricing between the Impreza and the Legacy sounds far more reasonable.

I want this to sell like Mustangs. There is nothing else like this in the US market. If they can make it meet a minimum of practicality and many people like it, it could inspire more and better versions.

Edit: I have to add that the base Miata does not offer a 6psd manual. And the WRX is $25.5k so I rounded up to $26k.

[Buggy51]

@Allch Chcar I agree. I like to say I will have around 10k saved up for a down payment, and I can get parental support, but this ride isn't anywhere close to being free. I do not want to ask even more from my family, I think I already used enough resources. Heck, I'm being a bit wary just seeing if it can run on a lower octane rating gas (its an economical sports car right?-- hmm bit of an oxymoron there). And you know, maybe this car isn't really right for me, but for now it seems exciting. Its different idea. I don't really have a concept of going fast (you can't driving such an old car) and I never planned to race (eh, I value my life lol). Maybe I'm just babbling on and on so far... but eh... ... just hoping for the best.

[keiri]

Originally Posted by Buggy51

@Allch Chcar I agree. I like to say I will have around 10k saved up for a down payment, and I can get parental support, but this ride isn't anywhere close to being free. I do not want to ask even more from my family, I think I already used enough resources. Heck, I'm being a bit wary just seeing if it can run on a lower octane rating gas (its an economical sports car right?-- hmm bit of an oxymoron there). And you know, maybe this car isn't really right for me, but for now it seems exciting. Its different idea. I don't really have a concept of going fast (you can't driving such an old car) and I never planned to race (eh, I value my life lol). Maybe I'm just babbling on and on so far... but eh... ... just hoping for the best.

In life; hope for the best but plan for the worst.

If you have 10k down on this at 25K base you'll be making payments around $275 a month which isn't too bad for a new sports car. If it comes in at 22K base then even better...