A pessimist's take on sales success / failure

[C4RBON]

This car has a lot against it to be a big seller.

Its too expensive to be marketed as an alternative to compact cars (civic, corolla, focus). Its too small/impractical for most people who will only own one car, unlike the WRX & GTI. For outright speed, the Mustang, Camaro, and Challenger are all faster at or near the same price, as well as being large enough to fit 4 in comfort.

This really will be an "enthusiasts" car, for people willing to give up practicality and cost for a better driving experience. It could also appeal to someone who already has a second, more practical car.

That being said, initial sales will be strong, because I expect every car enthusiast who would purchase this car already knows about it. No potential purchaser of this car is going to be surprised to see it in a showroom next year.

[DeanStevenson]

Originally Posted by Mess11

Read this comment on another site (not posted by me!)

Why not attribute then?

Original post on Miata.net here.

Full thread entitled "TRD Scion FR-S | FT-86 and Subaru BRZ STI Concept Revealed" located here.


Like many of you here, a number of Miata owners are excited about the prospects of the FR-S/FT-86.
:happy0180:

[Jordo!]

Here's what Toyota/Subaru needs to do to prevent the FT-86/BR-Z from becoming the "4 seater Miata".

1. Sell a crap load to all the cone dodgers and track rats for a year.

2. Release a factory warrantied turbo or S/C kit with ECU reflash and other supporting odds and ends by year two. People who want it will buy it and people who don't won't.

3. By year 5, offer something based on a somewhat bigger version of the same chassis, drop a V or straight 6 in it, and call it the Supra. Steal away some of the Mustang/Camaro and Z crowd.

In other words, the only thing this car lacks is decent power, easily rectified with a turbo from the subaru parts bin.

For those who still hold out because they want even more power (and also more luxury), bring back the Supra.

[JDMluv]

i think that the price of the FT-86 will have a big affect on sales. if the car will be sold for 25K$ people will have the choice for either a used 2009/2010 370z or the ft-86!!

some will prefer the 370z specially with the touring package that got the nav/sat and hard disk!!

from where i come (middle east) we care allot about quarter mile speed and do allot green light drag races!! (people here dont appreciate or care about low center of gravity or light weighted cars) so there is no game for the FT-86 in the middle east!! plus boxer engines are still new to people here!! people love the Impreza STI but they afraid to buy it because of the boxer engine!! so they go for the EVO!! even though the EVO is more expansive in Bahrain!!

so, if they will sell the FT-86 here for 25K or higher!! some will prefer to get a used fully loaded 370z Manual which will include a syncro rev match!!

for me if the car will be less than 25k i will buy it, and use it for autoX and consider it as a long term project, since i will be having another car for daily use!! but if higher i will get a used 370z and have fun with a 330HP + and allot of options!!

finally!! its will be all depending on Toyota marketing at the end of the day!! after the production of the car, they can increase their sales.. how?

Make events and autoX competitions just for the FT-86

produce allot of after market parts specially SC or turbo kits!!

And Toyota should always put the picture of the old AE86 with the new FT-86, this will boost the car sales!!

[Dave-ROR]

Originally Posted by JDMlove

i think that the price of the FT-86 will have a big affect on sales. if the car will be sold for 25K$ people will have the choice for either a used 2009/2010 370z or the ft-86!!

The ONLY 370Z worth considering is the Nismo Z. The rest are crap IMO (for what I want). For those that select the Z, the FT likely wasn't the best choice anyways.

from where i come (middle east) we care allot about quarter mile speed and do allot green light drag races!! (people here dont appreciate or care about low center of gravity or light weighted cars) so there is no game for the FT-86 in the middle east!! plus boxer engines are still new to people here!! people love the Impreza STI but they afraid to buy it because of the boxer engine!! so they go for the EVO!! even though the EVO is more expansive in Bahrain!!

Do people in the middle east stop maturing at 16 or something (street racing)? I can't believe that is an accurate description of all enthusiasts over there. There's a race track in Bahrain, one in Qatar and two in the UAE. There's nothing wrong with drag racing if you are into that sort of thing but keep it on the track.

so, if they will sell the FT-86 here for 25K or higher!! some will prefer to get a used fully loaded 370z Manual which will include a syncro rev match!!

Which is fine. Different people have different needs, wants, etc out of their vehicles.

Make events and autoX competitions just for the FT-86

Maybe in Japan, but in the US at least SCCA or NASA may eventually have a Spec FR-S type class, Toyota won't (they can't have the liability, just as Honda can't sponsor the track portion of NSX Expo or ITR Expo, but can (and does) help with other parts). The closest you'll come in the US to a spec autocross would be the Subaru Challenge but that's not really spec and would require a BRZ I guess :P

produce allot of after market parts specially SC or turbo kits!!

I can see turbo kits happening. I don't see SC kits happening as much. Not by Toyota either, but someone will.

This car will succeed, or fail, on it's own merits, nothing else. If Toyota/Subaru screw up the driving experience, it will fail. If they pull it off, it'll be a huge success (but it will NEVER sell in Camry numbers and I guarantee that Subaru/Toyota does not plan on it selling like that either)

[PAImportTuner]

Originally Posted by Neutral_Eyes

When it comes to new cars these days, I'm ridiculously pessimistic as well. Not only does the industry seem to be taking away attainable fun cars, the platforms are disappearing as well. I drive a Miata. It doesn't do everything well. But it's fun. That single trait was worth compromising my safety, fuel economy, insurance payments, sexual orientation perception, and cargo capacity.

Which is why I can't look at the FR-S/BRZ with anything but optimistic anticipation. They want to do it all. They want to create a fun car without the compromises. If this car doesn't sell, it won't be Toyota or Subaru's fault at all.

It'll be because of the price and the expensive options or lack thereof.

Also let's be honest, your Miata is fun because racing them with the top down is fantastic and a thrill, it's the cheapest way to feel like you are in a Lotus 7 or similar chassis car 3" off the ground. A hard top version would get boring real quick aka FRS. I don't own a Miata, but having autocrossed some with the top down it's a ******* treat even though it was slower.

[Kids Heart]

Originally Posted by KAuss

The FT86 is only going to fail by price point and supply, so yeah, I've always said it, must be less than WRX, and more than tC to make business sense... However, any alternative vehicle to the FT86 is a very radical design change and while MX-5 is great, I remember during the time there was also the Saturn Sky and Pontiac Solstice as direct competitors... For the FT86, there is no direct competitor... I now hope Nissan comes out with a legit light weight RWD vehicle of their own named the 240... AWWWYEAHHHH baby...

TL;DR - Miata's name is a huge plus and also it's undoing, people know the name will either buy it or avoid it, FT86 is going to appeal to everyone at least once, Nissan needs to come out with a light weight 240 to compete directly with FT86 AWWWYEAHHHH!!

There is only two things that will keep me from buying this car next year. The msrp for the base model is above $21,000 or if Nissan debuts an S chassis concept at TAS.

[PAImportTuner]

Originally Posted by Dave-ROR

Maybe in Japan, but in the US at least SCCA or NASA may eventually have a Spec FR-S type class, Toyota won't (they can't have the liability, just as Honda can't sponsor the track portion of NSX Expo or ITR Expo, but can (and does) help with other parts). The closest you'll come in the US to a spec autocross would be the Subaru Challenge but that's not really spec and would require a BRZ I guess :P



I can see turbo kits happening. I don't see SC kits happening as much. Not by Toyota either, but someone will.

This car will succeed, or fail, on it's own merits, nothing else. If Toyota/Subaru screw up the driving experience, it will fail. If they pull it off, it'll be a huge success (but it will NEVER sell in Camry numbers and I guarantee that Subaru/Toyota does not plan on it selling like that either)

Toyota/Scion can do a Spec race or Celebrity race just like they did with the Scion tC. Most likely they will.

I see SC kits happening instead because of the limited space under the car in front and rear of the engine. So a top mount passenger side unit would be needed and the only thing that would be the best scenario cost and fitment wise is a centrifugal charger(ie., Vortech)

You are correct, but they already set the tone for this car and the price. So ultimately this could kill sales. What I mean by tone is "hype" from the media, DK and engineers speaking on the project, this car has a lot to live up to at this point.

[speed-wiz]

The 86 is a fundamentally good car. Pricing alone will determine its level of success in the market.

[tripjammer]

Originally Posted by Kostamojen

The 240SX stopped be sold over 10 years ago!

Other than the Mustang and Camaro, which still sell in droves, there aren't ANY cheap RWD cars out there.

It WILL sell well. I haven't seen this much interest in a car since the '02 WRX and we all know what happened with that...

The 240SX or Nissan Silvia is gonna come back...watch you will see!

[PAImportTuner]

Originally Posted by RRnold

What the blogger didn't realize is that life goes on. He seems like he's from my generation and does have a point in regards to the age demographic. What he also doesn't realize is that generation passed and evolved into a new set of car enthusiasts.

I do believe that this car being a Scion in the US and not a Toyota will have an slight impact on sales. Seeing all of the information in this recent week, I doubt we'll see this car tank... now we just need to see the price.

True, but I generally understand what he is saying. With the economy and the new generation going into college or coming out with $30+k debt, the price is not within there budgets. Like me, if you were a late 80s into the 90s import enthusiast, wrencher, fabricator, street racer all the way up to today you are now evolved and different. So with all those years, all those cars and experience today you'd expect more from manufactures.

Also who has the money to pay to play? Who are the ones to buy this car? The new generation will be buying USED 02-06 WRX, 04-05 STI, 06-07 Civics, Evo 8s, Mazdaspeed 3s, Cobalts, SRT4s, anything fun, sporty, practical or under $16k. The majority will not have the money for a $25+k car, modifications and afford insurance.

So which brings me back to who is this car targeted at and can they afford it?

[Snoopyalien24]

What Toyota IMO should do is have a crazy sports car with a lot of potential a la 350z/370z and have a car like the 240sx (being the FR-S). Mazda sorta has this with the RX-8, but that isn't a highly modded car. On the other hand they have the MX-5, which is a very much liked car.

Toyota either had a low variant (AE-86, Celica, MR2) or a really high variant (Supras 89- 98) Really Lexus is the one in charge of the ones in the middle Soarer, Altezza's, etc. But here in the states, it is so rare to find one manual.

I think Toyota/Scion are doing a great move on focusing on that low hp FUN TO DRIVE area, but I also think they should focus on the meduim range to really compete against the 350z/370z, Mustang, Camaro, Evo's and such.

Just my 2 cents

[tripjammer]

Originally Posted by Kids Heart

There is only two things that will keep me from buying this car next year. The msrp for the base model is above $21,000 or if Nissan debuts an S chassis concept at TAS.

Dude there is not gonna be a base model...the Scion will be the Hi-Spec. All Scions come equipped at a good price relative to their competition. So think HI-Spec FR-S with optional accessories and TRD catalog access.

Think $24k starting price.

[PAImportTuner]

Originally Posted by tripjammer

Dude there is not gonna be a base model...the Scion will be the Hi-Spec. All Scions come equipped at a good price relative to their competition. So think HI-Spec FR-S with optional accessories and TRD catalog access.

Think $24k starting price.

Ouch, that would damn near be touching the Subaru variant.

Scion needs to offer it at $21,086(see it) with their "no haggle". Nothing would be cross shopped or in competition, they'd still make a killing and gain new customers.