Are you willing to push your car off a cliff?

[Sportsguy83]

I'll just leave this here...

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BECharVgjk0"]Track Day Crashes - A Compilation (HD) - YouTube[/ame]

[ultra]

Originally Posted by ayau

Are you willing to push your car off a cliff?
.

It's never 100% safe. The odds of something bad happening rise mathematically each time you go out BUT just like driving on the street there are things you can do to manage risk to 'acceptable levels'.

My personal checklist includes:

- Check to ensure that the car is mechanically sound. Fluids, tires, pads, rotors, bolts. Every time.

- Similar to the above, check the condition of your safety gear. Helmet, eyewear, gloves, shoes, seat, seatbelts, clothing, fire extinguisher.

- If you don't know the track, a ride along with an instructor is useful regardless of your perceived skill level.

- Even if you do know the track inside out, build up your speed gradually.

- Observe etiquette. If a faster guy comes up on you then let him pass. If a slower guy is in front of you don't ride his bumper or divebomb him. If you can't pass him safely then back off and have a word with the clerk of the course after the session if necessary.

- If you're out and you encounter people being reckless then exit the track. It's not worth it.

- Don't stay too close to other cars. Always tey to maintain a safe gap in front and behind (as per above).

- Always keep your eyes wide open. Look ahead and watch the flags like a hawk.

- Always leave a margin for error. Never take it for granted that there's not an incident waiting around the next bend such as a spun car, oil spill or dust.

- Don't assume anything. Don't assume that you're faster than the guy in the slower car and don't assume that faster cars are better driven.

- Check the ego at the door. You're there to go fast, learn, have fun and return home in one piece. You are not there to get 'kills' on ither cars to brag about, or race for money, or for championship points.

Still, bad things can and do happen. If they do then your priority is first to ensure that you avoid or prevent injury to yourself and others and worry about minimizing damage to the car second. In the end of the day the car's only metal.

[Dave-ROR]

^^ All great advice.

[rice_classic]

Originally Posted by ultra

It's never 100% safe. The odds of something bad happening rise mathematically each time you go out BUT just like driving on the street there are things you can do to manage risk to 'acceptable levels'.

Great post and

I just wanted to address this "mathematical odds" comment. If you compare it to flipping a coin the odds that it lands heads-up is 50% every time so even if you flip it 100 times and it lands on tails all 100 times, the next time you flip it the "mathematical odds" are still 50% for the 101st flip, and every subsequent flip. The "odds" never change.

Same thing applies here with the exception of additional (and unknown) variables but those unknown variables in the past have zero bearing on the odds of today. So every time you show up to track the "odds" of something going wrong are only related to that day, that driver, that car/prep.

If you neglect car prep, your odds for mechanical failure increase.
If you neglect driver prep and talent level, your odds for driver failure increase.
If you neglect awareness, your odds of being a bad situation increase.

All the drivers in the track-day-crashes video above neglected one of those 3 things.

I don't want anyone reading this thread to think that every time they go to the track they're one step closer to a ticking-time-bomb. That isn't the case.

[7thgear]

Originally Posted by rice_classic

Great post and

I just wanted to address this "mathematical odds" comment. If you compare it to flipping a coin the odds that it lands heads-up is 50% every time so even if you flip it 100 times and it lands on tails all 100 times, the next time you flip it the "mathematical odds" are still 50% for the 101st flip, and every subsequent flip. The "odds" never change.
.

Hey now! That's not entirely true. Statistics is a sneaky little devil and your scenario is open for interpretation.

If the question is what are my chances at landing tails after each subsequent toss then the answer is 50%

If the question is what are my chances at landing two, three, four, five tails in a row then the answer is 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.125% respectively


This, really, is a question of how you perceive our universe

If you're a Karma type of person and believe that on a long enough time line everything will happen to everybody, then each subsequent attempt of something will increase the probability of an event happening.

At the same time it's much like the Schrodinger's cat paradox, you won't know your odds until you get into a car crash.

As far as an argument stands, there is something or someone out there keeping track of the odds but you'll never be privey to them


I am of the opinion that each subsequent visit to a race track will have a higher chance of you fucking up if you haven't fucked up all these years

However the level of the fuckup will be inversely proportional to how much effort you put into not fucking up, so in a sense you control your destiny but math will catch up eventually.

[ayau]

Originally Posted by 7thgear

Hey now! That's not entirely true. Statistics is a sneaky little devil and your scenario is open for interpretation.

If the question is what are my chances at landing tails after each subsequent toss then the answer is 50%

If the question is what are my chances at landing two, three, four, five tails in a row then the answer is 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.125% respectively


This, really, is a question of how you perceive our universe

If you're a Karma type of person and believe that on a long enough time line everything will happen to everybody, then each subsequent attempt of something will increase the probability of an event happening.

At the same time it's much like the Schrodinger's cat paradox, you won't know your odds until you get into a car crash.

As far as an argument stands, there is something or someone out there keeping track of the odds but you'll never be privey to them


I am of the opinion that each subsequent visit to a race track will have a higher chance of you fucking up if you haven't fucked up all these years

However the level of the fuckup will be inversely proportional to how much effort you put into not fucking up, so in a sense you control your destiny but math will catch up eventually.

I'm inclined to believe this. Each time you track your car and not crash, you'll naturally push yourself harder. Eventually, you'll go over the limit and spin your car. You may be lucky that you spin the car and not hit anything, but you can never predict that. The best way to prevent this from happening is never to drive over 8/10th IMO.

[rice_classic]

Aren't 63% of statistics made up anyway?

[robispec]

the BEST stat...for us older guys was that you were safer in viet nam ON A FIREBASE than in the USA driving on our highways (deaths/100K males aged 18-25) in fact we killed more young men EVERY year on our highways than the Whole "Police action" Not alot of comfort with the rounds zinging overhead and the whistle of incoming shells all around you but true neverthless lol

[Surok]

Originally Posted by rice_classic

Aren't 63% of statistics made up anyway?

I believe its closer to 75%

[cf6mech]

Originally Posted by 7thgear

Hey now! That's not entirely true. Statistics is a sneaky little devil and your scenario is open for interpretation.

If the question is what are my chances at landing tails after each subsequent toss then the answer is 50%

If the question is what are my chances at landing two, three, four, five tails in a row then the answer is 25%, 12.5%, 6.25%, 3.125% respectively


This, really, is a question of how you perceive our universe

If you're a Karma type of person and believe that on a long enough time line everything will happen to everybody, then each subsequent attempt of something will increase the probability of an event happening.

At the same time it's much like the Schrodinger's cat paradox, you won't know your odds until you get into a car crash.

As far as an argument stands, there is something or someone out there keeping track of the odds but you'll never be privey to them


I am of the opinion that each subsequent visit to a race track will have a higher chance of you fucking up if you haven't fucked up all these years

However the level of the fuckup will be inversely proportional to how much effort you put into not fucking up, so in a sense you control your destiny but math will catch up eventually.

Cool !.......I like your philosophy .... but could you explain your Avator? Is this a rendition of Marxs?

[7thgear]

Originally Posted by cf6mech

Cool !.......I like your philosophy .... but could you explain your Avator? Is this a rendition of Marxs?

yes, the hammer and sickle + 5-point star on a red background is a universal symbol for the rights of the proletariat before their masters.

[cf6mech]

Looking at my sentence again it came out wrong,....but ok.

[Black Tire]

Originally Posted by ayau

Thanks for the advice. Could I get a ride along the next time you're up at BIR (no intention to drive)?

Sure, if I go up there with another group other than the BMWCCA. The rules don't allow ride alongs during BMWCCA HPDE's unless you are a student, or unless (sometimes) it is a parade lap at low speed. It would probably be easier to give you a ride along at DCTC during our next advanced car control clinic. PM me if you would like more details.

[ayau]

@CSG Mike

What happened to your BRZ?

http://www.s2ki.com/s2000/topic/1004...pw-115k-miles/