New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[Spuds]

Interesting take on EV reliability. Counterintuitive, but the data says they are less reliable.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars...s-a1047214174/

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by bcj

Previous user experience with re-chargeable batteries isn't overwhelmingly positive.
My laptop was sort of OK for a year or two. Now it doesn't go for more than 10 minutes unplugged.
Having to pitch out a phone with a dead un-replaceable battery is a burden even now.

if you are referring to the drive battery in EVs, they are all warranted for 8 years/100,000 miles to at 75% or higher of their initial capacity.

In practice, they lose a little bit over 2% of capacity each year. Here's a chart where you can put in a vehicle/year and it will show you the degradation based on actual data. Some vehicles don't have enough history to show yet. It varies by model because battery chemistry varies.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Interesting take on EV reliability. Counterintuitive, but the data says they are less reliable.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars...s-a1047214174/

Well, the data isn't in this article, and it doesn't say EV powertrains are less reliable. It says the overall reliability is lower for EVs, which is not a surprise because Tesla build quality is still poor for a premium brand, and it makes up the vast number of people being surveyed, if this truly was a random survey. It says some of the most common issues was powertrain issues, but then says Tesla's powertrains are pretty solid. "Most common" is the same as saying, 'it came up the most' in statistics, or rather, in the mean, median and mode, it is the median thing. Depending how they broke up the car, anything having to do with the powertrain including needing a new 12v battery to having a loose coolant connection to having a software issue could potentially be lumped together, but having a window motor issue, a handle issue, a brake light issue, etc could all be separate issues, so even if trivial things are braking more than major things, the "most common" problems could be powertrain. They also said the PHEV Rav-4 was one of the most reliable cars, even though PHEVs are the least reliable. They don't say the cost of these reliability repairs, if these problems are fundamental to the performance and safety or if they are aesthetic and livable. There is not much here except for percentages. But I do agree that we would expect new technology and new brands like Rivian or Ford's F150 Lightning to be going through early growing pains. Based on their volume, they are just getting started with these vehicles/systems. I don't think these things are a reflection of what will be the case in five, ten, twenty or more years, and I think anyone buying a 100k mileage used car in the future will feel more comfortable with the potential reliability of buying a used Tesla over a comparable high-mileage 3-series BMW, for instance.

[WolfpackS2k]

Stop calling Tesla a premium brand. They're not!

[Dadhawk]

If you want some more up to date number, you can look at this PDF report.

Through the third quarter EV sales are up 48% from 2022. A lot of that has to do with companies other than Tesla finally delivering the goods.

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by WolfpackS2k

Stop calling Tesla a premium brand. They're not!

I would agree that they are not luxury, but they are definitely premium. I don’t know of anyone who matters who considers them an economy brand. Most refer to them as a luxury brand, but that is mostly for price and because media, evaluators, reviewers, etc often use premium and luxury interchangeably.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

If you want some more up to date number, you can look at this PDF report.

Through the third quarter EV sales are up 48% from 2022. A lot of that has to do with companies other than Tesla finally delivering the goods.

Looks like Tesla had roughly 50% of the sales across the board, regardless of year or quarter. Looks like total sales is up, but Tesla kept its market share, which means the report is going to be dominated by a single brand.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I would agree that they are not luxury, but they are definitely premium. I don’t know of anyone who matters who considers them an economy brand. Most refer to them as a luxury brand, but that is mostly for price and because media, evaluators, reviewers, etc often use premium and luxury interchangeably.

Yea, we've already beaten this horse to death on a couple of occasions. I consider them mid-tier with an upscale price. Even the upscale price has sort of faded recently.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Looks like Tesla had roughly 50% of the sales across the board, regardless of year or quarter. Looks like total sales is up, but Tesla kept its market share, which means the report is going to be dominated by a single brand.

The drop between YTD (56.5%) to 50.0% precent Q3 for Tesla could show the beginning of a trend, but I think it's mainly that others have grown sales, not that Tesla decreased.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Yea, we've already beaten this horse to death on a couple of occasions. I consider them mid-tier with an upscale price. Even the upscale price has sort of faded recently.

Yeah, it's a point I don't think is worth debating. Buyers who pay premium prices are the ones that decide. It is subjective, even if there are objective reasons why something is more complex, more refined, more whatever.

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

The drop between YTD (56.5%) to 50.0% precent Q3 for Tesla could show the beginning of a trend, but I think it's mainly that others have grown sales, not that Tesla decreased.

Yeah, Tesla added 100k more vehicle sales. Others are just increasing their sales.

Again, cool, but my point remains that Tesla was dominating the cars being surveyed in that Consumer Reports, which shows that it is a little bogus. Half the cars have Tesla build quality, and the other half are brand new, but that doesn't mean drivetrains are less reliable. No real details or comparisons. No repair costs, critical vs aesthetic vs quick fixes, etc. They say contradictory things; EVs have common motor issues, but Teslas have solid drivetrains. I mean, way to say a lot without really saying anything.

[weederr33]

I had a battery in a phone die once

[Lantanafrs2]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/tesl...uis-study.html

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by weederr33

I had a battery in a phone die once

I upgraded my prior MacBook Pro (mid-2010 edition) with a Samsung SSD, and I upped the ram from 4g to 16g, which extended it's life for several more years before I passed it onto my wife when I bought a new model. Apparently that year had battery swelling issues, which began in 2019 unbeknownst to me, and it became obvious this year, when it couldn't charge and began lifting the trackpad. It made it thirteen years, as a high-use item--not bad.

Most of my iPhones have started throttling around two years, but never did they entirely bite the dust or refused to last a good chunk of the day, but these batteries see heavy use (several hours in the day) and fast charging at least once a day, plus night charging. This would be like driving a car more than just hours because car batteries are proportionally so big. This would be like driving 350 miles and fast charging all the time. Most people don't do that.

The average person will trickle charge the battery at home to top off the 35 miles they drove, or they will wait ten days between charges, and in that case they will charge 35 times in a year, which is much different than 365 phones charges. If a phone battery lasts over a thousand charge cycles in several years before its performance and "range" suffers then a car battery could last 28 years. Really rough math because it would depend on the battery chemistry, discharge and recharge rate, usage, weather, etc, but phones are a heavy use item, so their batteries see a lot of abuse.

For reference, lithium iron phosphate batteries have near zero fire risk, are cheap, are plentiful, are good for most driver's basic needs, are good at charging, not the best battery range, but will last 2000-3000 cycles, with the best case scenarios lasting 10,000 cycles. Those best case scenarios are grandma drivers who recharge at home using 120-220v low amp charge rates, who live in LA, California climates, who only charges from 20% to 80%. For that example, if 20%-80% represented 150 miles of range with 30 miles per day, that would be 5 days per cycle, so 73 cycles in a year, so that would be 136 years worth of cycles. It would be 27 years if the battery only lasted 2000 cycles.

[Spuds]

Not sure where to put this, so here it is lol. Just some thoughts...

So I actually visited a Lucid dealership today. First time sitting in the Air [midrange whatever it's called]. Super nice interior and looks great in the lighter colors, even white. Didn't have time to go for a drive but got to play around with the controls a bit. Not really a fan of things like lights and wipers being on a touchscreen, but otherwise everything was in just the right place to reach. Cabin is large with plenty of leg and headroom, but there isn't a ton of trunk/frunk space. Rear seats do fold flat for more cargo room though. I didn't like the glass roof thing on the Model X I checked out once, but it's implementation on the Air is pretty cool. Seats were excellent and had all the adjustability I could want, including extended thigh support which I've used before in another car and are nice to have on long drives.

Zero pressure salesman, though it might have helped that I was the only non-employee there. We just chatted about the car and such.