New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

I don't understand the woke marketing strategy for evs. The demographic seemingly targeted will never be able to afford a 50 grand ev by smashing storefronts and looting walmarts.

The target is everyone with money. The average age of new car buyers is 53 with the 55+ demographic increasing their market share 15 percentage points since 2000. Instinctively people would say that older people may not want an EV, but many older people have homes to be able to charge, have interest in a reliable, low-maintenance vehicle, have interest in something with a reliable cost, especially if they are on fixed incomes. Older people loved the Prius because of the reduced range. Add in a quiet, comfortable ride, and I can see a lot of older people choosing an EV.

You don’t need to loot many stores to afford a Tesla. Factor in the savings from gas and maintenance to the federal and state subsidies, and the car might be sub $20k.

In California, the Tesla Model 3 Is Now Cheaper Than a Toyota Camry
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/t...ry-california/

[Lantanafrs2]

A lot of older people are buying teslas. I know that. Mostly for the driving experience, not virtue signaling. They however don't spend as much on makeup as a middle aged drag queen. Please, no ai responses on the demographics of makeup consumers.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

That statement could be applied to many things; it is rather vague. This is a California law, as far as I can tell. It regulates the sale of diesel trucks and vehicles in the fleet of companies in California. From what I have read in a few articles, I believe it says nothing about vehicles passing through the state, which could be diesel vehicles purchased out of state:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/cali...s-by-2036.html

As of Jan 1 this year, big rigs older than 10' are not allowed in CA. This heavily affected getting shipments out of port this year as a lot of chassis carriers are independents and some of the biggest ports on the west coast are in CA. This has heavily congested Tacoma and Seattle's ports as well as the rail yards as containers have to be distributed by other means. Drayage on containers has gone through the roof because of it. To get a full 40' container out of Long Beach to OR cost me as much as it does to ship it across the ocean now.

EDIT: I shouldn't say drayage has gone up because of this, it just hasn't helped the already messy situation over the course of the last 3 years. It was salt on a wound.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Musk is cozy with Republican candidates, so I don’t see his business going anywhere, even if federal incentives go away.

yeah, that didn't work out so good for republican GM dealership owners in 2009... nearly wiped out the dealer network in the midwest at the time.

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

The target is everyone with money. The average age of new car buyers is 53 with the 55+ demographic increasing their market share 15 percentage points since 2000. Instinctively people would say that older people may not want an EV, but many older people have homes to be able to charge, have interest in a reliable, low-maintenance vehicle, have interest in something with a reliable cost, especially if they are on fixed incomes. Older people loved the Prius because of the reduced range. Add in a quiet, comfortable ride, and I can see a lot of older people choosing an EV.

the 55 demographic has always been a problem, i'm sure we all know the story considering the fr-s' scion origins. but it's also an issue with how it's measured--by new car sales only.

the only way to change it is for a large amount of young people to buy, and there's simply not a ton of young people with new car money--scion was toyota's best chance at lowering that statistic, and they failed pretty miserably. especially once the xb gained traction with old people for being easy to get in/out of.

the 'old people' problem is just reality. 40-60 is when people finally have enough disposable income to get whatever they want brand new, instead of buying used the majority of the time.

i've never heard of anyone loving the prius because of the reduced range, but everyone loves the prius for the rear hatch, lack of noise, and comfortable ride, and how the hybrid feature saves on gas..

[MyHybridBurnsGasAndTires]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

I don't understand the woke marketing strategy for evs. The demographic seemingly targeted will never be able to afford a 50 grand ev by smashing storefronts and looting walmarts.

add it to the incredibly large list of things you dont understand


https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/...10888657567747

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by soundman98

The 55 demographic has always been a problem, i'm sure we all know the story considering the fr-s' scion origins. but it's also an issue with how it's measured--by new car sales only.

How else should it be measured?

There is some value in knowing what sells used, but used stats changes nothing in terms of what is produced new. Dealers might care a little about "certified used" vehicles, but the OEMs don't.

I understand used sales may help drive new sales. Have a good used experience you might buy that same brand new next time. However, that doesn't change what is sold new, just how much reliability is built into it.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

yeah, that didn't work out so good for republican GM dealership owners in 2009... nearly wiped out the dealer network in the midwest at the time.



the 55 demographic has always been a problem, i'm sure we all know the story considering the fr-s' scion origins. but it's also an issue with how it's measured--by new car sales only.

the only way to change it is for a large amount of young people to buy, and there's simply not a ton of young people with new car money--scion was toyota's best chance at lowering that statistic, and they failed pretty miserably. especially once the xb gained traction with old people for being easy to get in/out of.

the 'old people' problem is just reality. 40-60 is when people finally have enough disposable income to get whatever they want brand new, instead of buying used the majority of the time.

i've never heard of anyone loving the prius because of the reduced range, but everyone loves the prius for the rear hatch, lack of noise, and comfortable ride, and how the hybrid feature saves on gas..

I said reduced range, but what I meant to say was old people like the reduced cost to fuel/increased fuel economy (more likely to be frugal and look for savings); I don’t know how I got that all mixed up when I typed it out. For fixed incomes, volatile gas prices can be concerning, so the Prius absorbed those fluctuations. Similarly, EVs are subject to less volatility because electricity is a more stable, domestic product. I’m sure EVs are very appealing, especially when autonomous driving gets perfected.

Again, the share of cars purchased by older demographics has increased fifteen points in a short period and continues to go up. This is probably a reflection of the growing income divide and the general rising cost of car ownership. I don’t see those trends changing, which suggests that the older demographics will be influencing much of the car market. As such is the case, EVs are more likely to fit into that demographic, even though we think of modern technology being favored by younger demographics; it is, but they just don’t have money for new cars. With that said, the Tesla Model 3 is cheaper that a $26k Camry or 86 for that matter, so cost should be less of a factor with all the subsidies.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

How else should it be measured?

There is some value in knowing what sells used, but used stats changes nothing in terms of what is produced new. Dealers might care a little about "certified used" vehicles, but the OEMs don't.

I understand used sales may help drive new sales. Have a good used experience you might buy that same brand new next time. However, that doesn't change what is sold new, just how much reliability is built into it.

He may have been referring to older people buying cars for younger people like their children, which suggests that the interests of younger demographics could be more influential than what the straight numbers suggest.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

He may have been referring to older people buying cars for younger people like their children, which suggests that the interests of younger demographics could be more influential than what the straight numbers suggest.

Agh, that makes sense.

One of my sons just purchased a new Honda Accord. Because he has been fiscally responsible, has not debt and was "only" putting down $10,000, his credit score wasn't good enough to buy it on his own.

If you look at the vehicle it appears I am the primary purchaser so likely it fell into this trap.

[Irace86.2.0]

Toyota woke up and chose aggression. Apparently they will be trying to beat Tesla at Tesla's own game.


Toyota unveils sweeping plans for new battery tech, EV innovation

https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...it-2023-06-13/

Toyota (7203.T) will introduce high-performance, solid-state batteries and other technologies to improve the driving range and cut costs of future electric vehicles (EVs), the automaker said on Tuesday, a strategic pivot that sent its shares higher.

Toyota said it aims to launch next-generation lithium-ion batteries from 2026 offering longer ranges and quicker charging.

It also trumpeted a "technological breakthrough" that addresses durability problems in solid-state batteries and said it is developing means to mass produce those batteries, targeting commercialisation over 2027-2028.

At the high end of the market, Toyota said it would produce an EV with a more efficient lithium-ion battery offering a range of 1,000 km (621 miles). By comparison, the long-range version of the lithium-ion-powered Tesla Model Y, the world's best-selling EV, can drive for about 530 km based on U.S. standards.

An EV powered by a solid-state battery would have a range of 1,200 km and charging time of just 10 minutes, Toyota said. By comparison, the Tesla Supercharger network - the largest of its kind - offers the equivalent of 321 km of charge in 15 minutes.

Toyota said it was developing a dedicated EV platform to reduce the cost of new models and a heavily automated assembly line that would do away with the conveyor belt system that has defined auto production since Henry Ford over 100 years ago.

In Toyota's "self-propelling" assembly line, cars under production would drive themselves through the process.

It also said it would use Giga casting to cut production costs, adopting an innovation pioneered by Tesla using massive, aluminium casting machines to reduce vehicle complexity.

[MyHybridBurnsGasAndTires]

well this should have been posted but here's a link bypassing the stupid wapo paywall:

17 fatalities, 736 crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot
https://archive.ph/8KkBB

Tesla’s 17 fatal crashes reveal distinct patterns, The Post found: Four involved a motorcycle. Another involved an emergency vehicle. Meanwhile, some of Musk’s decisions — such as widely expanding the availability of the features and stripping the vehicles of radar sensors — appear to have contributed to the reported uptick in incidents, according to experts who spoke with The Post.

The uptick in crashes coincides with Tesla’s aggressive rollout of Full Self-Driving, which has expanded from around 12,000 users to nearly 400,000 in a little more than a year. Nearly two-thirds of all driver-assistance crashes that Tesla has reported to NHTSA occurred in the past year.

also this came out a couple weeks ago too:


https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ta-breach-leak

1. The files include thousands of complaints and descriptions of crashes allegedly from customers.

In an article titled “ ‘My autopilot almost killed me,’ ” Handelsblatt said it received 100 gigabytes of data and 23,000 files including 3,000 entries about customers’ safety concerns and descriptions of more than 1,000 crashes. The complaints cover Teslas manufactured from 2015 to March 2022, the article said. The files contain more than 2,400 complaints about sudden acceleration and more than 1,500 complaints about braking problems, including unintentional emergency braking and so-called “phantom stops,” when the car suddenly brakes for no apparent reason, according to the article.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Toyota woke up and chose aggression. Apparently they will be trying to beat Tesla at Tesla's own game.

I wouldn't bet against Toyota to be able to do it. They always play the long game, hopefully it won't hurt them this time.

Still, good news.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by MyHybridBurnsGasAndTires

well this should have been posted but here's a link bypassing the stupid wapo paywall:

17 fatalities, 736 crashes: The shocking toll of Tesla’s Autopilot
https://archive.ph/8KkBB

also this came out a couple weeks ago too:

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ta-breach-leak

This probably should be in the Tesla thread and not in a general EV thread because autonomous systems can be in BEV and ICE vehicles.

The article is a little ehh. Nothing really concrete in there. Just a bunch of speculation. The "recall" was a software update. If the crash data was conclusive that the system was at fault and not the fault of the driver then it would probably lead to a decent lawsuit victory or settlement. In general, considering the large increase in Tesla vehicles on the road, there should be a proportional increase in incidents. There are 46k car fatalities per year, so I don't know if 17 is large or not. There are seatbelt failures, airbag failures, and other type of failures in vehicles components or systems, so again, I don't know if a semi-autonomous system is a problem from these articles, even if they are slanted to sound like they are problems.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I wouldn't bet against Toyota to be able to do it. They always play the long game, hopefully it won't hurt them this time.

Still, good news.

Musk has said multiple times, sometimes ad nauseam, that they are laying out a template for other companies to follow, with the benefit, I might add, that those companies can take advantage and leapfrogging past the milestones Tesla has needed to take during its growth. Toyota seems to be doing just that, and I don't doubt that they have the resources and expertise to make compelling and competitive BEVs. I think they are right to maintain a position still producing ICE-dominant hybrids and EV-dominant plug-in hybrids, as those will still be around for decades.