New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

i'm still not convinced that the US market overall will accept a battery swap program.

tire rental doesn't really exist. but could be viable in the same regard at one-day track days.

people are too possessive of their cars stuff to 'rent'/'borrow' batteries while owning the rest of the car.

if we follow the beginnings of the gasoline vehicle, i really doubt we'll see any sort of standardization or calming of the market for at least the next 20 years. it's interesting to be a part of, but too many players all too aggressively fighting for a really tiny piece of pie.

Apple said the same thing about streaming music saying people want to own their music. Here we are with streaming services for music and video. Do young people own a music collection anymore? People lease cars. People rent vehicles. It doesn’t seem like a stretch. It all depends on liability.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

,,Do young people own a music collection anymore?

Actually, they do, but it is primarily as a "hobby". I have a early 20's son who has a vinyl collection that would surpass 90% of the same age kids in the late 60's, early 70's. Probably close to a 1000 albums. He has many friends with similar collections.

[soundman98]

i stream crap. in that i mean, anything i stream, i don't have much interest in owning. anything that i find entertaining/good, i will purchase. apple's issue was specifically a hard-stop at 'stream everything, own nothing', which doesn't work for a lot of people.

in a lot of ways, streaming has taken the place of how i used blockbuster video.

[NoHaveMSG]

Out of curiosity I wonder if carbon capture fuel tech can potentially change this ruling. F1 is working on this with their partner Aramco, and ran a Williams FW14B during a demo run last week. FIA's plan is to have all F1 cars running this by 2030. It doesn't reduce CO2 pollution, but pulls what is existing out of the air and works in standard ICE engines. I know that some of this tech is what is inticing engine manufacturers to entertain the idea of entering F1. It sounds like VW group is coming in, I know Porsche was working on an alt net zero fuel as well to allow them to continue ICE's. I know it is not ideal, but could potentially be a reasonable stop gap transition if it could be done effectively and in mass.

https://us.motorsport.com/f1/news/ve...fuel/10330558/

https://www.aramco.com/en/sustainabi...EaAlZHEALw_wcB

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

Out of curiosity I wonder if carbon capture fuel tech can potentially change this ruling. F1 is working on this with their partner Aramco, and ran a Williams FW14B during a demo run last week. FIA's plan is to have all F1 cars running this by 2030. It doesn't reduce CO2 pollution, but pulls what is existing out of the air and works in standard ICE engines. I know that some of this tech is what is inticing engine manufacturers to entertain the idea of entering F1. It sounds like VW group is coming in, I know Porsche was working on an alt net zero fuel as well to allow them to continue ICE's. I know it is not ideal, but could potentially be a reasonable stop gap transition if it could be done effectively and in mass.

https://us.motorsport.com/f1/news/ve...fuel/10330558/

https://www.aramco.com/en/sustainabi...EaAlZHEALw_wcB

We addressed the idea of carbon capture in the Expert Prognosis For The Planet thread below:

https://www.ft86club.com/forums/showthread.php?t=143867

I think carbon capture could be a good technology to aid in balancing CO2 in the environment. I don't know if it is the most efficient way of reducing CO2, and it probably would be ridiculous to try to use carbon capture to power all cars, but it could be used to power a subset of cars. Prices would need to come down with economy of scale because Engineering Explained has done a few videos on the topic with estimates that the fuel would cost $20+/gal, if I remember correctly, and I don't know if F1 needs to use carbon captured oil versus just using standard fuels because they aren't really a big contributor to the problem. In fact, they could probably use ethanol and be as close to carbon neutral for a fuel that they could ever get, even compared to carbon capture tech, especially if the carbon capture process didn't use renewable energy to operate the factory. I think it is good press for them.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

We addressed the idea of carbon capture in the Expert Prognosis For The Planet thread below:

https://www.ft86club.com/forums/showthread.php?t=143867

I think carbon capture could be a good technology to aid in balancing CO2 in the environment. I don't know if it is the most efficient way of reducing CO2, and it probably would be ridiculous to try to use carbon capture to power all cars, but it could be used to power a subset of cars. Prices would need to come down with economy of scale because Engineering Explained has done a few videos on the topic with estimates that the fuel would cost $20+/gal, if I remember correctly, and I don't know if F1 needs to use carbon captured oil versus just using standard fuels because they aren't really a big contributor to the problem. In fact, they could probably use ethanol and be as close to carbon neutral for a fuel that they could ever get, even compared to carbon capture tech, especially if the carbon capture process didn't use renewable energy to operate the factory. I think it is good press for them.

Ahh, I didn't participate in that thread.

F1 won't use a high blend of ethanol due to the low energy density. This is actually the first year that they have run any ethanol in the non-refueling era, they are running E10 this year.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

Ahh, I didn't participate in that thread.

F1 won't use a high blend of ethanol due to the low energy density. This is actually the first year that they have run any ethanol in the non-refueling era, they are running E10 this year.

They could all do it. It just means more refueling or 30% larger tanks and lines.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

They could all do it. It just means more refueling or 30% larger tanks and lines.

They could, I just don't think that is their goal.

[Dirty Harry]

I think carbon neutral fuel (eFuel) will be a thing, at least down here. Looks like a new commercial eFuel plant is opening in Tasmania with backing from Porsche.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/synthe...-for-tasmania/

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

I think carbon neutral fuel (eFuel) will be a thing, at least down here. Looks like a new commercial eFuel plant is opening in Tasmania with backing from Porsche.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/synthe...-for-tasmania/

Porsche owners probably won’t mind paying the premium for eFuel.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Porsche owners probably won’t mind paying the premium for eFuel.

With an EV as a daily I would be willing to pay a premium to keep my ICE toys running too.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

With an EV as a daily I would be willing to pay a premium to keep my ICE toys running too.

Is the fuel exclusive to Porsche owners? How do they distribute it? In drums or at exclusive pumps/stations?

“Synthetic fuels offer attractive prospects across transportation sectors, from the automotive industry to the aviation and shipping sectors.”

“Our global plan is to produce over 8 billion litres a year of carbon-neutral eFuels – enough to decarbonise five million vehicles,” HIF Global CEO Cesar Norton said at the announcement.

For perspective, Australia used $56 billion litres of fuel in 2019, and this factory wants to do 100 million litres per year, so Australia would need 560 factories to replace all of the fuel and enough green power facilities to run them. To do the 8 billion a year that they plan would be 80 factories and the needed renewables to support them.

The fuel will be dependent on the price of renewables plus the cost of manufacturing and cost for exclusive distribution, and they might have to compete with demand from industries that depend more on eFuel than recreational use, especially if the governments prioritize shipping vehicles over sports cars, for instance. I’m not saying it isn’t going to happen or be possible, and I’m sure Porsche owners putting 2k miles on their car per year will be fine paying $20+/gal like you said.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Is the fuel exclusive to Porsche owners? How do they distribute it? In drums or at exclusive pumps/stations?

From my understanding that was not the intent of the project.

[Dirty Harry]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Is the fuel exclusive to Porsche owners? How do they distribute it? In drums or at exclusive pumps/stations?



For perspective, Australia used $56 billion litres of fuel in 2019, and this factory wants to do 100 million litres per year, so Australia would need 560 factories to replace all of the fuel and enough green power facilities to run them. To do the 8 billion a year that they plan would be 80 factories and the needed renewables to support them.

The fuel will be dependent on the price of renewables plus the cost of manufacturing and cost for exclusive distribution, and they might have to compete with demand from industries that depend more on eFuel than recreational use, especially if the governments prioritize shipping vehicles over sports cars, for instance. I’m not saying it isn’t going to happen or be possible, and I’m sure Porsche owners putting 2k miles on their car per year will be fine paying $20+/gal like you said.

The renewables won’t be a problem as Tasmania is powered 100% by renewables, large hydro electric system there. Likely one of the main reasons they chose the site. Nearly all our fuel is imported at the moment so any fuel made locally, especially eFuel will be a bonus.

https://theconversation.com/tasmania...p-there-160927