New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

The market will go electric regardless. He doesn’t have to ban them, but it is highly unlikely ICEs will last long, even if he doesn’t ban them. Not choosing to modernize could be a problem for the future of the country.

last i checked, the czech republic isn't exactly known to be a hub of cutting edge innovation. i always thought they were somewhere about 30 years behind most other countries...

other than some political fining and general hand-wringing by the EU they agreed to be part of, what were you thinking of how this would come back on them?

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

last i checked, the czech republic isn't exactly known to be a hub of cutting edge innovation. i always thought they were somewhere about 30 years behind most other countries...

other than some political fining and general hand-wringing by the EU they agreed to be part of, what were you thinking of how this would come back on them?

Did you even read the link?

Babis reportedly goes on to say that the Czech Republic will support an EV infrastructure but refuses to subsidize actual EV production.

According to Bloomberg, one-third of the country's economy is tied to the automotive industry, with the Volkswagen Group-owned, homegrown Škoda brand operating two domestic factories in addition to other plants churning out Toyota and Hyundai products. So, any radical change in the European automotive landscape would likely also mean major disruption for the livelihoods of the Czech people. The report also points out that Babis is up for re-election next month.

https://www.thedrive.com/news/42399/...ion-engine-ban

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

i'm not entirely opposed to ev's. i'm just opposed to outright abandonment of 1 legacy fuel source, for what is a very fledgling fuel source because the current benefits appear better.

there's a lot of questions yet about natural resources, and utilities that haven't been put to rest for me.

Well, the abandonment would not come for a while. The talk has been to eliminate new ICE sales in fifteen years for personal vehicles, which means ICEs will be on the roads for a long time. Fossil fuels would still be needed for decades for personal vehicles, and of course, oils are used for plastic production, fertilizers, large machinery, etc, so we won't be going cold turkey on fossil fuels for decades longer.

Utilities have decades to move to green energy, and based on the projected needs, we have grown our energy production faster in the past than what we need to do in the time we have, so energy growth shouldn't be a concern. Engineering Explained has a great video breaking it all down that I posted here.

If we understand that there is a finite supply of oil then we would need to conclude that the world needs to move away from that resource to alternatives long before approaching the end of the supply. As the world moves away from oil, the supply increases relative to the demand, which means the price of the oil may drop or stay flat. At the same time, as the resources become depleted, the price of extracting oil becomes more and more expensive. At some point, there becomes a point where extracting oil is no longer a profit, so even if it is there, it isn't worth extracting. Even if it was possible to make a profit, not all of the known oil could be extracted. This is why we get different predictions and quotes about how much oil is in the world because there is the absolute amount, there is the amount that can be extracted, and there is the amount that can be extracted at a profit.

At some point, an EV will just be cheaper to own and operate by such a large margin that an ICE vehicle running on fossil fuels just won't make sense. Right now the cost of renewables is cheaper than coal, so in a similar way, an EV running on cheap or near free electricity someday might make the prospect of paying for gas seemingly illogical. Thus, economics might make ICEs and oil go away far before oil ever gets used up, irregardless of the emission reasons.

[soundman98]

you address oil as a natural resource, but don't say anything about copper and/or aluminum(really the only viable electrical wiring methods for the past 30+ years), lithium, and cobalt that are also limited natural resources, all of which have some very destructive mining practices. what good does it do to us to migrate entirely to lithium power if there's not enough lithium in the mines to supply the world of the power? and all these battery-powered cars need wires to work, what good does it do if we've stripped the world already of copper and aluminum resources?

trading one natural resource availability for another isn't a win in my book. i've got the same problem with 'burning water' for hydrogen production.

while there's some lithium iron recycling that is set to begin in 2022 in NY(they promise 95% metal recovery), there's still a very large gap between batteries produced, and viable methods to material recovery.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

you address oil as a natural resource, but don't say anything about copper and/or aluminum(really the only viable electrical wiring methods for the past 30+ years), lithium, and cobalt that are also limited natural resources, all of which have some very destructive mining practices. what good does it do to us to migrate entirely to lithium power if there's not enough lithium in the mines to supply the world of the power? and all these battery-powered cars need wires to work, what good does it do if we've stripped the world already of copper and aluminum resources?

trading one natural resource availability for another isn't a win in my book. i've got the same problem with 'burning water' for hydrogen production.

while there's some lithium iron recycling that is set to begin in 2022 in NY(they promise 95% metal recovery), there's still a very large gap between batteries produced, and viable methods to material recovery.

Battery recycling comes in many fashions, but one of the best methods for extending battery use is grid storage. A repurposed car battery can provide storage for quite a bit longer beyond the typical vehicle lifetime. Grid storage isn’t dependent on peak efficiency or on max capacity, nor are they constrained by packaging or weight. Yes, mining will eventually turn into recycling, especially as the world population stabilizes and demand plateaus. There may also be a point where recycling becomes significantly more profitable than mining or legislation limits mining, which makes recycling necessary. This is somewhat already the case for copper and aluminum where cooper recycling accounts for a third of cooper production. We will likely just take an old electric car and turn it into a new car or just attach a new battery to an old car with a minimum addition of new mining products.

With faster charging or battery advances, batteries don’t need to be as big. In a green future with abundant green energy production, excesses will be used to make hydrogen, which will also reduce demand on copper because batteries will be smaller. With ride sharing of different types and autonomous taxis coming, many people might not have a vehicle. Why own something that spends most of the time just sitting there? For cities, this will be much more common.

How much research have you done on global supplies and advances in the industry? Have you watched Tesla’s battery day? The plan is to use lithium clay in Nevada using salt and water for extraction. Musk has said there is enough lithium in the world to meet all the world’s needs and then some, so it isn’t a limiting factor. He said Nevada alone could supply all the lithium the US needs. They also use lithium iron phosphate batteries that are cobalt free. Cobalt isn’t needed for BEVs to replace ICEs.

I think it is worth reading these articles for a taste of what is going on in the industry and watch the battery day presentation, so you can see what the plans are.

“Tesla endorsed the lithium claystones,” Bowering said. “Tesla engineers have been all over the planet for years looking at lithium sources. They are now making a bet on Nevada… [which] has several sedimentary lithium deposits that are the future of lithium mining and in a mining-friendly environment. Nevada sits on top of a major caldera of super volcanoes that populated the sediments with minable concentrations of lithium like nowhere else in the country.”

Tesla said its plan in Nevada involves mixing clay with table salt and then adding water. The company said the process causes a reaction where the salt would leach out with lithium, and the lithium then would be extracted. The leftover clay would be put back in the ground to mitigate environmental damage, much like the current mining industry practice of returning rock to the earth after minerals are extracted.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/electre...n-process/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune...materials/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eng...234534595.html

[soundman98]

[Irace86.2.0]

Get your head out of the sand sir.

Oil could be a renewable if we were to enact massive carbon capture. This would balance oil consumption with oil production, yet there are inherent inefficiencies, and there would be a greater need for green utilities that make EVs more appealing, but only if there aren’t limits like you discussed. The other renewable possibility is biofuel, but this is less efficient than EVs, and it is far more damaging to ecologies to level land for crops. We would be talking about massive areas of the country used to create fuel from a homologous crop. Not a viable option.

Like I said, I don’t think it’ll come to that because I believe the population will plateau, which means most mining can be turned into recycling, yet oil would still be required for ICEs for a long time. Unless carbon capture dramatically advances, and only if EVs get more expensive, I don’t see ICEs lasting far into the future.

[Dadhawk]

Chevy announced they will be unveiling the Silverado EV on 1/5/2022 at CES.

I'll be seriously looking at that one.

[Irace86.2.0]

[soundman98]

they estimate that it takes 40,000 miles for a hummer ev to equal the carbon emissions of a ram trx while including the manufacturing process...

https://www.thedrive.com/news/electr...than-you-think

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

they estimate that it takes 40,000 miles for a hummer ev to equal the carbon emissions of a ram trx while including the manufacturing process...

https://www.thedrive.com/news/electr...than-you-think

It’s only going to get better for EVs, especially if battery tech really improves. I’m thinking of my lithium ion battery at 4.5lbs and how it replaced the lead acid battery that was 30lbs. What if sodium sulfur batteries could replace lithium ion and have a similar effect or lithium sodium or whatever combination. If we saw an EV battery with Plaid power and Plaid motors, but only a current 30kWh battery in weight, meaning Nissan Leaf-like weight, then range would go up and performance would be ridiculous. If they can do sodium sulfur batteries then the carbon footprint, cost and feasibility would dramatically change things in favor of EVs. We would be talking fast charging, long range, lightweight and more powerful all coming together with reliability that would make Lexus impressed. Game over for ICEs outside of nostalgic classics.

If a current 400mile battery could go 1200-1600 miles because it was 3-4x as energy dense, that is like 10 recharges a year for 12k-16k miles/year of driving, which means a 1000 cycle battery could last 100 years, meaning one battery could last you for your whole life and then be gifted to your kids or repurposed for grid storage.

https://news.umich.edu/1000-cycle-li...ehicle-ranges/

[WolfpackS2k]

I'd advise anyone looking to consider an EV to wait until solid state batteries are mainstream.

Additionally, for anyone that honestly cars about the environment, they're better off waiting for EVs that don't rely on precious metals.

[spcmafia]

Originally Posted by WolfpackS2k

I'd advise anyone looking to consider an EV to wait until solid state batteries are mainstream.

Additionally, for anyone that honestly cars about the environment, they're better off waiting for EVs that don't rely on precious metals.

Additionally. If it doesn't go like "Broom..BROOOM BROOOM" and it doesn't also go like "BRAAAAAAAP...STUTUTUTUTU" it is not a vehicle worth getting.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by spcmafia

Additionally. If it doesn't go like "Broom..BROOOM BROOOM" and it doesn't also go like "BRAAAAAAAP...STUTUTUTUTU" it is not a vehicle worth getting.

Well, they can do that, with the right programming and audio clips.