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#463 | |
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#464 | ||
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Feeling like thinking....
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What I do find people dismissing is the fact that, in the overwhelming majority of cases, having the virus is a non-event. If one has symptoms or has reason to believe they've been exposed, get tested and self-isolate until you get the results. If positive, self-quarantine. Take precautions that make sense to you; avoid dense gatherings especially indoors and get the vaccine if you're comfortable with doing so. In reality, all the things any responsible person would do for any other flu. That's it. The article on the Columbia site to which I had previously linked estimates that on December 31, 2020 in the U.S., one out of approx 130 people was currently infected and contagious.. 0.77%. Depending upon how many people one contacts in a given day, that can either be a completely insignificant risk/amount, or can be quite significant. Then, there's the fact that coming in contact with an infected person does not mean you will become infected... just that it's possible. THEN, there's the fact that, if you do become infected, chances are greater, by far, that you will experience little or no discomfort than that you will become gravely ill or pass away. By FAR. Soo... let's not dismiss the fact that the chances of coming in contact with a person who is currently contagious can be quite low to begin with, unless you work or frequent congested populous environments. Then let's not dismiss the fact that contact does not equal automatic infection. Then let's not dismiss the fact that infection does not equal intense suffering or a death sentence. Of course we should also not dismiss the widely known and accepted fact that individuals who are mothers, fathers, and people's loved ones can and do suffer greatly and pass away either directly from Covid even when otherwise healthy (although that is EXTREMELY rare), or from Covid's exacerbation of comorbidities, which is the overwhelming majority of deaths attributed to Covid. I am NOT, nor have I ever, suggesting/suggested, that we should not be cognizant of the risk we may present to others who ARE at risk for severe complications, nor should we discourage anyone from taking precautions THEY feel are justified for their own comfort, regardless of whether or not those precautions have scientifically debatable effectiveness.
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#465 |
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Yea, I agree.
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#466 | ||
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In the face of this evidence, I often hear the corollary, which is the assumption that deaths would be inappropriately attributed to COVID instead of a different cause or someone posts a few anecdotal cases that have been report, yet I haven't seen any studies or shown any data to suggest the exceptions are prolific. Again, the evidence suggests we are far undercounting. Do you have a study that estimates the number of deaths that are inappropriately attributed to COVID? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm From May 2021: Estimation of excess mortality due to COVID-19 http://www.healthdata.org/special-an...ovid-19-deaths See tables below, and note that some countries have no data, or for areas like India, their adjusted estimate is still likely low given the ridiculously low data that is available in rural areas where most deaths regularly go unreported. Quote:
We can discuss death rates by age. We can talk about hospital rates by age. We discuss the studies that discuss long term complications and damage done to those who have asymptomatic cases all the way to the those who have severe cases. We know one of the biggest threats from people who have COVID is that they may have low oxygen saturation and can be acutely unaware, and we know there are objective damage that this virus has to people of all ages. For many people, the evidence is strong to suggest they don't ever want to get this virus, irregardless of their perceived severity. They might survive COVID or not be hospitalized, but they don't want other effects that have been reported in survivors. There are the other groups of people that understand this virus will mutate and can potentially mutate to effect younger people like we have seen with the Spanish Flu and other pandemics. With an average death toll of around 35k (estimated; measure is much less) per year for the flu, this pandemic has killed in a year and a half what the flu does (with vaccines) in twenty years. When we isolate the fact that the flu overwhelming kills 80+ and not so much 50-80 year olds, this twenty year statistic is closer to fifty years for that younger group. We can try to downplay the severity or risk for the individual or for the youth, but it ignores the larger effect. It also ignores the potential this virus has to mutate into new variants. It ignores the potential this virus has to cause long term damage to the body, and it ignores the statistics not really reported like we know 650k have died, but how many have been hospitalized because of COVID? Based on your estimations that severity doesn't equal deaths, it is likely that millions have been hospitalized with COVID. How are we going to get out of this situation? Vaccines and better treatments. Post all the data you want, and I always welcome data because I am not trying to subvert data, but the larger message doesn't change that this is a destructive virus, and the only way to move past this pandemic is through vaccinations. My point of commenting on the data is to give context. The biggest context is that the severity of the Delta variant is likely much higher given the data that we are seeing, and the 0.3% mortality doesn't really speak to the full destructive nature of this virus. For most people, the difference of 0.8% to 0.3% doesn't mean much. It doesn't mean much for those who don't want a vaccine, and it doesn't mean much for those who have had a vaccine or who maintain social distancing measures and precautions. That is all I am saying: "Cool [data]. Although, I don’t really know if it matters at this point."
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#467 |
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Wish I could find the study behind this BBC article. Very light summary, really.
To summarize the summary: complications from the vaccines are shared with the virus, but significantly lower Risk from the vaccine. Risk of blood clots, for example, is nearly 200 times higher from the virus than the AZ vaccine. Thats the biggest gap, a few others are listed.
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#468 | |
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Debating whether we're counting deaths right is just... I don't even have the words.
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#469 | ||
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Feeling like thinking....
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Do you find any of the responses to the virus that have taken place socially destructive?
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As far as the debate over accurate recording of data, regardless of how heart-breaking or distasteful that process may be, that's how science works. If we are more interested in feelings than accuracy, then our research and conclusions will always be flawed, at least in areas where data is important...and I can't think of a branch of science where it isn't.
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#470 | |
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Speaking of facts, there still isn't agreement that the substances being put into people fits the CDC definition of a vaccine, among other questionable assumptions. An MD speaks to some of those facts: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog..._is_going.html |
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#471 | |||||
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Basically, a teacher who was infected came to school and shed the virus off on their students, those students then brought it back home to their relatives. Quote:
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So how exactly does it matter that the chances are low unless you are in a congested environment? What about grandparents (theorizing here) who are legal guardians of said children or immunocompromised parents who would be home a majority of the time, yet are exposed because just one teacher had some symptoms and decided not only to continue coming into one environment, but also removing their mask to read aloud (which you can do just fine while wearing a mask)?
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#472 | ||
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ProCrastinationConsultant
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i was telling my dad i'd like to see something charted showing the relationship between those that are heavy social media users, and anti-vax. i think there's a lot of correlation that these people are getting sucked into a digital feedback loop of their own doing, and not even realizing it. i know that i barely get any new youtube recommendations anymore, and by those standards, have essentially reached the 'end' of youtube in a very short while-- which should be technically impossible given the size and scope of youtube as a video platform... Quote:
i especially understand grade schools going back to in-person due to the great number of issues with kids(transport, supervision, attention, area to work, scheduling to name a few), but anything of the higher-education stuff, where it's capable adults participating, i just don't see the point. it seemed like collegiate courses were initially transitioning to a online format that would make ease-of-access a priority, and encourage even those in lesser job/financial positions to participate and gain the benefit of a degree program. but as soon as they could, they went back to the status quo...
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#473 |
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MuseChaser alluded a few pages back that one shouldn't be dismissive of Ivermectin as a therapeutic treatment for Covid19.
Yesterday I read an article where a prison doctor tried to make 20 inmates take Ivermectin without them knowing. He was fired. Then I read about an anti vax activist that promoted Ivermectin use, who sadly has passed from Covid19. I'd be dismissive of using Ivermectin. In fact I don't even see any connection between it and treating any of the Covid19 symptoms or acting on the virus itself in any way. Won't work on the common cold either, which is also a corona virus.
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#474 | |||
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Plexiglass barriers work for some things; it turns out they're not a very helpful answer in this case - but that's only come to light as we've learned more about transmission, and the inconvenience is relatively low; they DO work for other things. So a reasonable deployment early on, I think - and not particularly onerous and certainly not dangerous, so... eh. Though not everywhere bothered with well-engineered installations so there are probably places where they are outright bad. And distancing measure, etc; the problem here is a social one. Guidelines have to be SIMPLE and EASY. Very few people are going to go through a 10-step safety checklist every time. So they're generalized and miss an awful lot in an attempt to mitigate issues broadly. Like my statements, there's an awful lot of detail missing but it's not really the point. The general blanket statement still holds true. Quote:
The problem is no longer the same, at least in the US. We have alternatives to some of the more severe restrictions (stay at home, etc are indeed restrictive and problematic and VERY much lack balance, but they bought some time when we had no better ideas how to find it). They're being ignored. We still need time, because this is clearly a worldwide problem - but there is no reason for emergency rooms to be over capacity with covid patients at this time, here. Debating is fine. Continued analysis is good. Adapting and updating are indeed part of the scientific process. Are numbers high or low? Not sure. All of the data I've taken time to look at (and I admit, I gave up some time ago) pointed to probable under-counting, but I'm open to being wrong. The PROBLEM here is how it's being used to confirm questionable and outright false ideas. So a stay-at-home order NOW is NOT being done for the same reason it was before (the hoped-for outcome is the same - a reduction in pressure on the system and a flattening of the curve); Previously it was because we had no other options. NOW? It's because a huge swath of our society believes their opinion is worth as much as a whole mountain of data. NOW? Those people are responsible for prolonging this thing they've been incredibly loud complaining about. Creating their own misery and refusing to acknowledge it. Gaslighting themselves (and of course, others).
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#475 | |
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#476 | |
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Feeling like thinking....
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In response to my question regarding seeing any other social destructiveness due to our response to the vaccine, you wrote..
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I'm assuming by now pretty much everyone, at some point, has noticed and/or wondered why they don't seem to hear quite as well when they wear a mask and other folks are more difficult to understand. It's not an illusion, but it's not caused by your hearing being affected. It's the result of not being able to see each other's lips move and see each other's expressions. Context is a HUGE part of what we say, and that context is framed by facial expression. On top of that, even those with the most acute hearing still innately use all senses at their disposal when communicating, and reading each others lips is a part of that. Yes, it's not strictly necessary (radio, spoken books, etc), but the visual does aid in comprehension and the desire to pay attention closely. We are experiencing a great deal of social destruction; on this we agree. Some is caused by the virus itself; we agree on that, too. I hope you can agree that a significant amount is caused by our decisions in how we react to the virus. We may not agree on whether or not that price is worth it, or which causes more destruction.
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