New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[WildCard600]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

The “vast majority” won’t want an EV tomorrow, next year, in ten years, in fifty years…when are you applying this statement? The thread is about new sales needing to be EVs by 2035. Many manufacturers are pledging to go fully EV by then, before then or near then. At that point in time, an original 2012 Model S will be 23 years old, which is like driving a car from 1998. Just saying—things can change a lot in another fourteen years. Driving an ICE might seem antiquated. Also, the landscape of infrastructure will likely change a lot. More parking spaces will have chargers making charging at work or while shopping easier. New homes will likely include 240 outlets in garages or built in chargers, along with solar or maybe a battery home charger.

And the world might run out of easily available rare earth metals to build all the battery packs required.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-ne...pply-of-cobalt

Two of the largest, most populous states in this country can hardly keep the lights on when the wind blows too hard or it gets a little cold. The infrastructure track record in this country is piss poor and I don't see a miraculous change coming in the next 10-15 years.

If anything, I expect a recession and further stagnation ahead. Have you priced a sheet of plywood or roll of romex wire lately ? A lot of businesses shuttered in the last year and many are still on the ropes due to the coof. Commercial real estate is a ticking timebomb because of WFH and the first shoe hasn't even begun to drop.

The vast majority of your posts are out of touch fantasy "what if" dreaming and speculation.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Is it necessary? Would AWD be fine? Are people actually using the locking differential for the intended benefit, or is this just a feature they have to make them feel better? Do people even switch to 4WDL/H versus 2WD? How many trucks are sold in RWD only?

you know, there's an entire country outside of california. just sayin'.

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

The “vast majority” won’t want an EV tomorrow, next year, in ten years, in fifty years…when are you applying this statement? The thread is about new sales needing to be EVs by 2035. Many manufacturers are pledging to go fully EV by then, before then or near then. At that point in time, an original 2012 Model S will be 23 years old, which is like driving a car from 1998. Just saying—things can change a lot in another fourteen years. Driving an ICE might seem antiquated. Also, the landscape of infrastructure will likely change a lot. More parking spaces will have chargers making charging at work or while shopping easier. New homes will likely include 240 outlets in garages or built in chargers, along with solar or maybe a battery home charger.

it's funny, considering i sorta need to be involved in all of this, i'm not seeing anything like that. we've done 3 car chargers in the last 10 years. 3. been asked if we install them 5 times.

ev is just the latest-greatest bandwagon. in an era that there's barely enough copper to keep up with house and vehicle production already.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by WildCard600

And the world might run out of easily available rare earth metals to build all the battery packs required.

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-ne...pply-of-cobalt

Two of the largest, most populous states in this country can hardly keep the lights on when the wind blows too hard or it gets a little cold. The infrastructure track record in this country is piss poor and I don't see a miraculous change coming in the next 10-15 years.

If anything, I expect a recession and further stagnation ahead. Have you priced a sheet of plywood or roll of romex wire lately ? A lot of businesses shuttered in the last year and many are still on the ropes due to the coof. Commercial real estate is a ticking timebomb because of WFH and the first shoe hasn't even begun to drop.

The vast majority of your posts are out of touch fantasy "what if" dreaming and speculation.

Tesla to make EV battery cathodes without cobalt

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2...nickel-ev-cost

You should watch the Tesla Battery Day, so you could catch up.

Watch the Engineering Explained episode posted earlier on how the US grid could support electric cars, and you can catch up. We can build our energy grid fast enough. We have in the past. It takes investment. We have a military budget that is greater than the next ten countries combined. It is a matter of making a priority towards a green future.



The lumber demand is a product of high demand and less supply, but it will change. I don't think it is reflective of some doom and gloom scenario.

Have you calculated the timeline for when we will run out of oil? When demand will exceeds production, regardless of supply? Do you know how many industries depend on oil for products, yet we are burning through millions of gallons a day and putting millions of tons of CO2 in the air. This can't last. Wake up.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

you know, there's an entire country outside of california. just sayin'.

We have snow.

The world drove cars for decades in the snow before AWD. AWD isn't necessary. It can be better, but not necessary. Anyways, nothing amount AWD requires SUV or truck dimensions--to reference the original topic. An AWD EV is fine.

All-wheel drive is about getting your car moving from a dead stop—not about braking or steering*—and you should be aware of its limitations.

Through weeks of driving in snowy, unplowed conditions at Consumer Reports’ 327-acre test center in Connecticut, we found that all-wheel drive didn’t aid in braking or in certain cornering situations. Our evaluations conclusively showed that using winter tires matters more than having all-wheel drive in many situations, and that the difference on snow and ice can be significant.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/...snow/index.htm

Is it not saying something that Norway has the most EV's per capita in the world with 83% of new sales in May going to electric? I mean Norway does get a lot of snow. Just saying.

Norway, the leading country in the electric transport revolution, saw plugin electric vehicles take 83.3% share in May 2021, up from 65.6% in May 2020. Non-plugin powertrains, including old-school combustion and plugless hybrids, are all fading away. Overall auto volumes were back to pre-Covid seasonal norms, at 14,063 units in May. The Ford Mustang Mach-E saw a big push and was Norway’s overall bestselling vehicle in May.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/02...ll-bestseller/

Originally Posted by soundman98

it's funny, considering i sorta need to be involved in all of this, i'm not seeing anything like that. we've done 3 car chargers in the last 10 years. 3. been asked if we install them 5 times.

ev is just the latest-greatest bandwagon. in an era that there's barely enough copper to keep up with house and vehicle production already.

It is an inevitability. Oil is finite fuel source. Supplies are not projected to last long. At best, oil demand will exceed supply within a century. Dumping millions and millions of tons of CO2 in the air is equally as silly. What is your solution to these issues? If not electric then what other sustainable/renewable?

[WildCard600]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Tesla to make EV battery cathodes without cobalt

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2...nickel-ev-cost

You should watch the Tesla Battery Day, so you could catch up.

Watch the Engineering Explained episode posted earlier on how the US grid could support electric cars, and you can catch up. We can build our energy grid fast enough. We have in the past. It takes investment. We have a military budget that is greater than the next ten countries combined. It is a matter of making a priority towards a green future.



The lumber demand is a product of high demand and less supply, but it will change. I don't think it is reflective of some doom and gloom scenario.

Have you calculated the timeline for when we will run out of oil? When demand will exceeds production, regardless of supply? Do you know how many industries depend on oil for products, yet we are burning through millions of gallons a day and putting millions of tons of CO2 in the air. This can't last. Wake up.

LOL. Green future eh ? Let's just move the point of pollution from the tailpipe to the power station, the strip mining operations in africa and china, the dangerous waste byproducts of refining the materials mined for batteries and solar panels in africa and china, and to every junkyard that will end up storing these toxic batteries each becoming a superfund site when all these wonder cars become wrecked, broken or obsolete.

Just to recap : nobody actually uses their trucks, elon musk is our savior and CO2 is going to kill the planet but strip mining of toxic materials is "green".

Top notch.

[Wally86]

"From 2010-2014, global production increased 1.215 million b/d per year, despite The Great Recession, compared to 889,000 b/d from 2000-2009. And beyond just crude oil, which is about 83% of total supply, there is a rapidly expanding stockpile of biofuels, natural gas liquids, synthetic fuels, and other sources that will continue to broaden the availability of liquid fuels.

The reality is that ALL energy systems are evolving, so ALL technologies must be allowed to compete in our goal to: 1) grow our economy, 2) increase our energy security, and 3) reduce GHG emissions. If not, we greatly increase the risk of not deploying the most economical and cleanest sources of energy."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judecle...rld-have-left/

[Wally86]

I've never looked up how much oil is left in the world but the stuff I posted above and this are interesting to me.

"And while it may sound counterintuitive, low oil prices tend to spur greater improvements in oil extraction as companies strive to boost the efficiency of drilling while maintaining—or even lowering—costs."

"Notably, demand for electricity is expected to expand by 62% by 2050, according to Bloomberg NEF. While a lot of the additional generation capacity will come from renewables, oil will continue to feature heavily in the global energy mix, which makes it safe to assume production will continue growing for some time."

"So, as the difficulty level in oil extraction increases, so do costs. When these rise to a point when a company cannot extract the oil at a profit, the deposit becomes economically unrecoverable. Even if it remains technically recoverable, this is one more reason to take any global oil reserve estimate with a pinch of salt. Whatever technically recoverable oil the world has – is not all economically recoverable."

https://drillers.com/how-much-oil-is-left-in-the-world/

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Clearly, the vast majority of people buying trucks aren't needing trucks for truck features. .

I guess it boils down to "so what?". I really don't see or understand your point here. As I said, people buy what people buy for the reasons they buy them, and none of that really matters in the end.

Every vehicle has "features" people don't use to their fullest. Heck, I don't think my passenger side window has ever been in anything but the up position (with the exception of when the door is opened and closed). I also don't "need" electric windows for that matter but there they are.

Where is your "break even" point on when someone should buy a function because they occasionally need it?

I do agree that trucks may be the "killer app" for EVs, bringing more into the fold. But, that is because it's the vehicle people want.

As far as the "most people could live with an EV", well most people buy vehicles for the 20% need not the 80%. If you can only afford one, or even two, cars you are going to buy the car you can take summer vacation in, not the one that you need to drive to work every day. Bottom line is people that own cars don't rent cars for special purposes unless forced to do so (flying to a new town on vacation/business/etc).

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Is it not saying something that Norway has the most EV's per capita in the world with 83% of new sales in May going to electric? I mean Norway does get a lot of snow. Just saying.

Yes, but Norway's conversion isn't out of consumer demand, it is a government program that has basically made it impractical to do anything but buy a new EV if you want a new car.

[Wally86]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Yes, but Norway's conversion isn't out of consumer demand, it is a government program that has basically made it impractical to do anything but buy a new EV if you want a new car.

Good lord, I've never looked into norway's taxes but they're number 2 in the world for the highest???

https://www.nationmaster.com/country.../Tax/Tax-rates

[Stonehorsw]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

We have snow.

The world drove cars for decades in the snow before AWD. AWD isn't necessary. It can be better, but not necessary. Anyways, nothing amount AWD requires SUV or truck dimensions--to reference the original topic. An AWD EV is fine.



https://www.consumerreports.org/cro/...snow/index.htm

Is it not saying something that Norway has the most EV's per capita in the world with 83% of new sales in May going to electric? I mean Norway does get a lot of snow. Just saying.



https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/02...ll-bestseller/



It is an inevitability. Oil is finite fuel source. Supplies are not projected to last long. At best, oil demand will exceed supply within a century. Dumping millions and millions of tons of CO2 in the air is equally as silly. What is your solution to these issues? If not electric then what other sustainable/renewable?

The world drove decades catless, withou abs, seatbelt, airbag, crash testing, eletronic controls on powertrain to reduce emissions and so on. So, your point makes no sense.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I guess it boils down to "so what?". I really don't see or understand your point here. As I said, people buy what people buy for the reasons they buy them, and none of that really matters in the end.

Every vehicle has "features" people don't use to their fullest. Heck, I don't think my passenger side window has ever been in anything but the up position (with the exception of when the door is opened and closed). I also don't "need" electric windows for that matter but there they are.

Where is your "break even" point on when someone should buy a function because they occasionally need it?

I do agree that trucks may be the "killer app" for EVs, bringing more into the fold. But, that is because it's the vehicle people want.

As far as the "most people could live with an EV", well most people buy vehicles for the 20% need not the 80%. If you can only afford one, or even two, cars you are going to buy the car you can take summer vacation in, not the one that you need to drive to work every day. Bottom line is people that own cars don't rent cars for special purposes unless forced to do so (flying to a new town on vacation/business/etc).

I’ve already stated the point several times. I know because I have said “the point” or even said, “The big point,” while underlining it, but I’ll say it again, which is that the argument that the vast majority of people couldn’t live with an EV because they need the utility of a truck has been demonstrated to be a myth. EV trucks can tow and haul. The vast majority of people who buy trucks will not require the longer towing range of an ICE truck. If they do then they will likely be able to rent one.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by WildCard600

LOL. Green future eh ? Let's just move the point of pollution from the tailpipe to the power station, the strip mining operations in africa and china, the dangerous waste byproducts of refining the materials mined for batteries and solar panels in africa and china, and to every junkyard that will end up storing these toxic batteries each becoming a superfund site when all these wonder cars become wrecked, broken or obsolete.

Just to recap : nobody actually uses their trucks, elon musk is our savior and CO2 is going to kill the planet but strip mining of toxic materials is "green".

Top notch.

Watch the battery day. Get updated.

Read the Expert Prognosis thread in the Off Topic forum. Look up battery recycling. Eventually we will be mining batteries for products. We already are starting. That, and we are using car batteries for grid storage. Moreover, materials are changing as battery technology improves and changes.

Regardless, our current path is not sustainable, so it will require changing and soon.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Yes, but Norway's conversion isn't out of consumer demand, it is a government program that has basically made it impractical to do anything but buy a new EV if you want a new car.

Consumer demand and consumer needs are two separate things. Regardless, I just demonstrated that the demand is for luxury trucks. People don’t use the utility of a truck much. Expect EV trucks to be great.

This is true. They are incentivizing people to get EVs. It seems to be working out fine.