New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[soundman98]

I'm more concerned about all the other metals that go into ex's. Copper ain't getting cheaper to name one.

There's been some headway on graphene batteries, just not at the scale for automotive use

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

I'm more concerned about all the other metals that go into ex's. Copper ain't getting cheaper to name one.

There's been some headway on graphene batteries, just not at the scale for automotive use

Tesla mentions cobalt, nickel and iron in the supercut of the battery day. They made a strong plan for the anode and cathode materials. They will be harvesting their own products and bringing materials to market in a much more efficient way right here in America.

Elon Musk was asked at one point how many gigafactories are needed to electrify the world. His answer was logarithmic when he said, ‘not ten and not a thousand’...’one hundred to two hundred.’ That was old. The new form factor of his factories means it is closer to the ten mark like when he said, “tera is the new giga.” The new factories will have a smaller footprint, but produce 10x the product or something.

[soundman98]

But that doesn't change the raw materials needed

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

https://carbuzz.com/news/evs-just-ou...rce=apple.news .... Norway, on the other hand, is banning sales of combustion cars as early as 2025. The country is already on track to achieve this target, too, because 54 percent of all new cars sold in Norway in 2020 were fully electric, up from 42.1 percent in 2019.

Norway has an easier task of it than the US does.

Not sure how much International driving Norway citizens do, but their country is only about the same sq miles as New Mexico, and is approximately 1000 miles x 260 miles at it's outside dimensions.

The average Norwegian drives about 21 miles a day, or 7,600 miles a year. That's less than half the US average, and only about 21% of what I drive per year.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Norway has an easier task of it than the US does.

Not sure how much International driving Norway citizens do, but their country is only about the same sq miles as New Mexico, and is approximately 1000 miles x 260 miles at it's outside dimensions.

The average Norwegian drives about 21 miles a day, or 7,600 miles a year. That's less than half the US average, and only about 21% of what I drive per year.

I'm missing your point about the size of Norway. If the article was about Colorado in stead of Norway then would it be different to you because it would be just as significant to me?

Doubling that to 50 miles a day isn't prohibitive for someone getting an EV, and are you saying no one drives far in Norway to commute? If someone had a level 2 charger at home then they could drive hundreds of miles a day. If they had a level 2 charger at work too then they could travel even further. If all someone had was a level 2 home charger on a Model 3 standard range plus at 263 miles of range, and they depleted the battery, then it would take 8.76 hours to fully charge the car. If someone owned the long range at 353 miles and had a 60 amp wall charger then they could charge the car in just 8 hours. We have chargers at work in our parking structure, so anyone commuting far to work has 8-12 hours to charge there.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I'm missing your point about the size of Norway. If the article was about Colorado in stead of Norway then would it be different to you because it would be just as significant to me?

I'm saying it's a much smaller geographic area, and the Norwegians tend to drive shorter distances, hence EVs make more sense in the short term. It's also easier to build a meaningful charging infrastructure for such a relatively small area than it is something the size of the US.

Can I use an EV and drive it for my extended commute? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US if I wanted to? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US the way I want to? No.

I regularly take day trips or weekend trips that exceed the range of even the best EVs. I don't believe I'm unique in that in the US. That is probably not nearly as likely for a Norwegian.

As I've said, I see the writing on the wall, and I'm good with it. It's just not something that is anywhere close to practical in the US in the next 4 years (blocking the sale of new ICE vehicles). It is very much so in Norway.

[Wally86]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I'm missing your point about the size of Norway. If the article was about Colorado in stead of Norway then would it be different to you because it would be just as significant to me?

Doubling that to 50 miles a day isn't prohibitive for someone getting an EV, and are you saying no one drives far in Norway to commute? If someone had a level 2 charger at home then they could drive hundreds of miles a day. If they had a level 2 charger at work too then they could travel even further. If all someone had was a level 2 home charger on a Model 3 standard range plus at 263 miles of range, and they depleted the battery, then it would take 8.76 hours to fully charge the car. If someone owned the long range at 353 miles and had a 60 amp wall charger then they could charge the car in just 8 hours. We have chargers at work in our parking structure, so anyone commuting far to work has 8-12 hours to charge there.

I think he's saying it's apples and oranges because no one in norway is taking a 3000 mile road trip across the country for fun. I've driven from maine to miami and from maryland to california and back. I can't imagine how many days would have been added to my trip to make it happen. Granted, I know the Tesla would tell me exactly which super charger to drive to and for how long i'd need to be there but I can't imagine making my 41 hours trip from palm springs to annapolis again with electric cars where they're at. Not quite. We're almost there though.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I'm saying it's a much smaller geographic area, and the Norwegians tend to drive shorter distances, hence EVs make more sense in the short term. It's also easier to build a meaningful charging infrastructure for such a relatively small area than it is something the size of the US.

Can I use an EV and drive it for my extended commute? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US if I wanted to? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US the way I want to? No.

I regularly take day trips or weekend trips that exceed the range of even the best EVs. I don't believe I'm unique in that in the US. That is probably not nearly as likely for a Norwegian.

As I've said, I see the writing on the wall, and I'm good with it. It's just not something that is anywhere close to practical in the US in the next 4 years (blocking the sale of new ICE vehicles). It is very much so in Norway.

Ahh, so I hear what you are saying. I get what you are trying to argue, but I disagree. I thought maybe you were implying something else.

The difference between driving 21 miles a day average in Norway vs 30 miles a day in the US, or even 50 miles a day, isn't significant enough to suggest EVs are any more practical in Norway versus the US or even parts of the US like California.

As you can see below, Norway is about 80% of the size of California, but it has 5.5 million people vs 37 million, so electrifying California would actually be easier than Norway because of population density, financial resources, manpower, etc. Their population density doesn't seem particularly high compared to other areas of Europe, so Norway doesn't look unique to me.

Norwegians average more vacation days than workers in the US, so who knows if they do road trips often to visit parts of Europe. They probably fly more than drive, but I don't know the statistics on road trips.

https://www.newsinenglish.no/2014/07...ns-on-holiday/

I think when we look at several age groups and the gender difference, we see that many people average far less miles, so a large number of age groups and many females in all age groups could probably drive EVs.



Other countries may not be capable of transitioning to all EVs for new car sales by 2025, but they could make huge improvements with tax incentives and fees like Norway. EV sales in the US made up just 2% of total car sales, which leaves a lot of room for improvement.

Originally Posted by Wally86

I think he's saying it's apples and oranges because no one in norway is taking a 3000 mile road trip across the country for fun. I've driven from maine to miami and from maryland to california and back. I can't imagine how many days would have been added to my trip to make it happen. Granted, I know the Tesla would tell me exactly which super charger to drive to and for how long i'd need to be there but I can't imagine making my 41 hours trip from palm springs to annapolis again with electric cars where they're at. Not quite. We're almost there though.

You don't think anyone is traveling from Norway to all over Europe? I know Europe has a lot more public transportation options, so it might be less common to use a personal vehicle, but I'm sure people do that, and with so many places in Europe to stop, destination charging would make the trip reasonable enough.

We have a far way to go to get to 100% new car sales being EVs from the current 2%. Realistically, we could go to 50-60% new car sales being EVs, and no one would have to modify their driving.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Norway has an easier task of it than the US does.

Not sure how much International driving Norway citizens do, but their country is only about the same sq miles as New Mexico, and is approximately 1000 miles x 260 miles at it's outside dimensions.

The average Norwegian drives about 21 miles a day, or 7,600 miles a year. That's less than half the US average, and only about 21% of what I drive per year.

i mentioned it last time that this came up, but norway subsidized the hell out of ev's when their government made the desicsion to push for an electric future.they also heavily invested in a charging network(here in the US, we can't get past arguing whose responsibility it is to install even a few stations), not to mention that vehicle taxes/tarriffs are extremely expensive there, and were waived for ev's. iirc, a base model golf starts at $50-60k...

the american equivalent would be "buy any ev, you don't pay any property taxes for 5 years". for most people there, it was was financially stupid not to buy any ev over any ice.

when one reads into it, their ev take rate had less to do with what the people wanted, and everything to do with what the government subsidized.

[Kodename47]

Originally Posted by soundman98

when one reads into it, their ev take rate had less to do with what the people wanted, and everything to do with what the government subsidized.

Indeed. Here in the UK the cost of the car includes a £3k government subsidy, it was £5k but has dropped. If you have a company car, then you don't pay tax on it, compared to around 20% (CO2 dependent) for a full ICE car.

Us Brits like to commute, Covid withstanding, but the company car tax Benefit In Kind makes an EV mighty attractive as a company provided vehicle.

[Wally86]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

You don't think anyone is traveling from Norway to all over Europe? I know Europe has a lot more public transportation options, so it might be less common to use a personal vehicle, but I'm sure people do that, and with so many places in Europe to stop, destination charging would make the trip reasonable enough.

We have a far way to go to get to 100% new car sales being EVs from the current 2%. Realistically, we could go to 50-60% new car sales being EVs, and no one would have to modify their driving.

I've lived in plenty of places in europe and asia and every takes trains to go any kind of long distances. Heck, even some short distance trips were easier by train than car. It's just a different style of living on the other side of the earth.

You sure love rebuttals and not changing your mind

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Wally86

I've lived in plenty of places in europe and asia and every takes trains to go any kind of long distances. Heck, even some short distance trips were easier by train than car. It's just a different style of living on the other side of the earth.

You sure love rebuttals and not changing your mind

I change my mind super fast in the face of compelling evidence. I have no wish to hold onto false beliefs.

Like I said, there is a huge gap between the US (2%) and Norway (54%) that can not be explained by the differences in our driving patterns, which are similar for the vast majority of Americans. As Soundman98 mentions, it is because of incentives that Norwegians are buying electric cars, but if electric cars were truly prohibitive for their needs then there would be huge public dissent, and people would buy ICE or used cars.

We can say the same thing about California. Why does California have half of the registered EVs in the country, but they only have around 10% of the population? Do Californias commute less than the rest of the country? The difference between California and the state with the most miles driven, is 20 miles a day, which is less than 10% of the charge of the smallest batteries in cars like the Model 3, Leaf or Bolt. Do Californians not go on road trips as much as people from other states? Well, it helps that California hasn't blocked Tesla from selling cars in their state. In fact, the Tesla Model 3 is the top selling car in the state, ahead of the Corolla, Camry, Accord and Civic, and part of that is from incentives, but also because EVs are embraced in the state, which is probably also the case in Norway.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20190...sh-in-question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_...rship_disputes

https://www.bts.gov/statistical-prod...le-trips-state

https://electrek.co/2020/05/29/tesla...ar-california/

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Like I said, there is a huge gap between the US (2%) and Norway (54%) that can not be explained by the differences in our driving patterns...

I think it would be interesting to see how percentage of EV owners only own an EV, particularly in California. It may be high, I don't know.

Also, for clarity, I do think the bigger difference in Norway and the US is the incentives and the build out of infrastructure. We could debate whether incentives should be paid by the government but I'm afraid that would step into politics so lets not go there.

As I implied earlier, I recognize the Mustang EV is out of the barn, and it's going to happen. My only point is its not going to happen as quickly in the US as it will in Norway (2025). And yes, it is partially due to our driving habits.

[AnalogMan]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Like I said, there is a huge gap between the US (2%) and Norway (54%) that can not be explained by the differences in our driving patterns, which are similar for the vast majority of Americans.

I think a lot of it comes down to perception vs. reality. The reality might be that the daily drives of most Americans could generally be met by the range of EV's. But the perception of many people may be different. Many people just don't want to be constrained by the range limitations or exhorbitant charge times of EVs, regardless of how often they might actually face them.

I admittedly fall into this camp. Things are certainly different during the pandemic, when I rarely drive at all and when I do, an EV would certainly suffice for the occasional 2 mile drive to do curbside pickup of food. But I'm definitely not going to spend the non-trivial money for a BEV as an additional car for that sporadic use (besides, the 30 miles a month I now drive, about a gallon, isn't putting out enough pollution to measure in the grand scheme of things).

Pre-pandemic (and hopefully, if we live through it, post pandemic) we would make drives exceeding the range of most BEVs about once a week. It's also the paucity of charging stations, and charge times, that hold me back.

One of my friends in the neighborhood bought a Nissan Leaf a couple of years ago (at the behest/brow-beating/nagging of his wife). Pre-pandemic, they took the car on a day trip of 150 miles each way. What would have been a total 7 hour day in a gas engine car (3 hours each way + 1 hour for the business they had to attend to) turned into a 22 hour long nightmare worthy of a book or major motion picture.

In the dead of a New England winter, they discovered first-hand, and the hard way, that the advertised range of the Leaf did not match the real world. Their voyage from hell required a total of 7 (seven) stops for recharging, with the multiple complicating factors of reduced range in cold weather, broken chargers, slower than anticipated charging, charging stations that wouldn't accept their credit cards etc., lines at charging stations, being cut off after an hour at several charging stations, and other problems. They made it there and back, but needing 22 hours to make a trip that would have reliably taken 7 hours in an IC car isn't viable (he since sold the Leaf and bought a Toyota Yaris).

The network of charging stations might be adequate in California, but it certainly is limited in most of the rest of the country.

Compared with Europe, public and mass transit are also much less developed here. When I used to live in Portland Oregon, the city planners and elected leaders were vehemently anti-car, and espoused strategies to make driving more difficult in Portland (reducing available parking spaces, etc.) to 'force' people to take mass transit. Yet, their own data (at the time) showed that less than 20% of the jobs in Portland could be reached by their employees using mass transit. What were the other 80% supposed to do? Bicycling is not for everyone, especially when long distances are involved, and in the perpetually rainy climate of the Pacific Northwest.