Motor Trend: 2016 Miata vs 2015 BRZ

[ben721364]

Originally Posted by ZDan

Erm, really they are the reincarnation of the DOHC S13 240SX.

If they would do the right thing and make a cab-rearward 2-seat version, with the engine/trans/firewall/windshield/driver moved aft a good 18" or so (which should give it 50/50 or better weight distribution) then *that* would be a spiritual successor to the 240Z. Give it double wishbone front suspension, lower hoodline and fender peaks, and voila, you'd have a modern Toyota 2000GT!

"...50/50 or better..."I'm not sure I would feel comfortable driving a tail happy car unless it had lots of rear tire and a 911 suspension. Even at that it might be a handful.

[ZDan]

Originally Posted by ben721364

"...50/50 or better..."I'm not sure I would feel comfortable driving a tail happy car unless it had lots of rear tire and a 911 suspension. Even at that it might be a handful.

Rearward weight bias doesn't necessarily imply tail-happiness. Roll stiffness distribution is easily tweaked to tune under/oversteer tendencies. Nothing special about the 911's suspension. McPherson struts up front, multilink rear. For sure the spring and roll rates are optimized around its ~40f/60r RR weight distribution. You wouldn't want that on an FR car with ~48f/52r.

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by ben721364

I based my comment on AutoWeek 6/12/2015 which says 2015 sales of the BRZ are off 39%= and FR-s are off 27%+.

I agree with AutoWeek that the pie remains the same size and will be sliced into three and then into 4 pieces when the Fiat twin to the MX-5 arrives, if it does...

autoweek.com/.../5-cars-have-seen-2015-sales-plummet

That article has zero frame of reference and no research done.

Before analyzing the market you must actually do some research on the market, any car even remotely like the 86 has experienced an identical trend, the Miata, 350Z, RX-8, S2000. Literally the only RWD Japanese Sports Car to outsell the 86 at any point in the last 15 years has been the 350Z, period. We will see if the Miata sales surpass the 86's but it too will fall prey to the same curve and see clickbait articles about it's 'sales crash despite initial success' 3 years from now.

[ben721364]

Originally Posted by ZDan

Rearward weight bias doesn't necessarily imply tail-happiness. Roll stiffness distribution is easily tweaked to tune under/oversteer tendencies. Nothing special about the 911's suspension. McPherson struts up front, multilink rear. For sure the spring and roll rates are optimized around its ~40f/60r RR weight distribution. You wouldn't want that on an FR car with ~48f/52r.

OK

[ben721364]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

That article has zero frame of reference and no research done.

Before analyzing the market you must actually do some research on the market, any car even remotely like the 86 has experienced an identical trend, the Miata, 350Z, RX-8, S2000. Literally the only RWD Japanese Sports Car to outsell the 86 at any point in the last 15 years has been the 350Z, period. We will see if the Miata sales surpass the 86's but it too will fall prey to the same curve and see clickbait articles about it's 'sales crash despite initial success' 3 years from now.

The 'frame of reference' is reported sales. You don't think AutoWeek made up the numbers? LOL

[totopo]

I think the comparisons to the old z or s chassis are flat off wrong. The old z's had decent hp for their era, significantly more than similar priced non sports cars, and relatively light weight. The frs doesn't sit in a similar market for the time period. It weighs less but has quite a lot less hp than similarly priced non sports cars. Engine tech and safety standards have progressed too far. I don't think we will ever see cheap lightweight good hp cars anymore.

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by ben721364

The 'frame of reference' is reported sales. You don't think AutoWeek made up the numbers? LOL

No the numbers are real, they are reflected in the graphs I posted.

If you expected the 86 to sell like a Camry, Prius, Mustang or BMW 3 series you are delusional. It's a niche car, a sales decline is inevitable and historically proven time and time again in cars with similar features in the same market at different times in the past 15 years.

Toyota and Subaru should have predicted this and planned accordingly, the sales are very far from 'horrible'.

[ben721364]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

No the numbers are real, they are reflected in the graphs I posted.

If you expected the 86 to sell like a Camry, Prius, Mustang or BMW 3 series you are delusional. It's a niche car, a sales decline is inevitable and historically proven time and time again in cars with similar features in the same market at different times in the past 15 years.

Toyota and Subaru should have predicted this and planned accordingly, the sales are very far from 'horrible'.

Did you deraw that impression from my quotation from AutoWeek?

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by ben721364

Did you deraw that impression from my quotation from AutoWeek?

Originally Posted by ben721364

Sales of the twins are way off [in NA at least]

I am simply responding to your previous statements: they are not in a proper frame of reference, expecting the 86 to be immune from proven historical trends is foolish.

[totopo]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

I am simply responding to your previous statements: they are not in a proper frame of reference, expecting the 86 to be immune from proven historical trends is foolish.

I think though their original goal wasn't for it to follow the trend of the niche sports cars. I think I remember I read something saying how their goal was to have durable steady sales more like the mustang/camaros and compete in that market with young single males. So with all the hype a lot of manufacturers were interested if it would work, and it didn't. It can't compete w the high hp us cars in the US market, and it is still too expensive for the Japanese market. So Nissan cancelled the idx and Honda and Toyota are now planning for cars a tier below.

[strat61caster]

Originally Posted by totopo

I think though their original goal wasn't for it to follow the trend of the niche sports cars. I think I remember I read something saying how their goal was to have durable steady sales more like the mustang/camaros and compete in that market with young single males. So with all the hype a lot of manufacturers were interested if it would work, and it didn't. It can't compete w the high hp us cars in the US market, and it is still too expensive for the Japanese market. So Nissan cancelled the idx and Honda and Toyota are now planning for cars a tier below.

The closest I've seen to that is the target of 100k units worldwide based on initial demand:

http://www.ft86club.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4283

The initial goal was 5,000 units per month produced or 60k per year, worldwide, by comparison Mustang's lowest annual sales in the last 15 years has been 66k in North America alone.

Again, I think they were well aware of the history and set expectations accordingly, armchair quarterbacks haven't.

[abraxis]

Originally Posted by totopo

I think I remember I read something saying how their goal was to have durable steady sales more like the mustang/camaros and compete in that market with young single males.

Prove it. I've followed this car from it's inception and have never seen any Toyota Japan exec of rep mention the Camaro or Mustang in anything. Maybe you overheard a Scion valet talking out his ass at some point by accident. Toyota knows very well it has no chance or desire to compete with cheap push-rod led sleds favored by dixie boyz. Toyota could make the best Mustang ever and almost nobody would buy it because it's Japanese or says Toyota on it. You'd have to be inane to think you could compete with that market as a foreigner. Dodge already has enough trouble doing that and it has a more 'attractive' nameplate for that market.

They have always planned for a cheaper car under the 86 as well as a more expensive one over it. This is nothing new and has nothing to do with your speculation about market reactions or poor planning. Toyoda wanted to make a cheap sports car because it's in his DNA. Period. He did it despite resistance from Subaru initially because he has huevos. This is fact, not fiction. You sound like you've been reading a little too much Left Lane News.

So yeah, people can rail against Toyota the appliance maker all they want, but GM and Nissan have pussied out of this market. Only Mazda and (maybe) Honda are left.

Honestly, I'm not even sure WTH market Nissan does well in these days at all.

[ben721364]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

I am simply responding to your previous statements: they are not in a proper frame of reference, expecting the 86 to be immune from proven historical trends is foolish.

You have completely lost/confused me. I won't attempt to argue with you. The facts [sales results] speak for themselves.

[ZDan]

Originally Posted by Levi

A lot of nonsense.

Not at all. What is nonsense: suggesting that an 80s Alfa sedan represents the pinnacle of FR sports car architecture. I guess we should all have inboard rear brakes as well!

Show me evidence about that for the Corvette.

Specs are readily available, and just looking at pics you can see that the C5's rear wheels moved aft relative to the driver, which negated any F/R weight distribution of moving the transmission aft. C4 = 51/49 on a 96.2" wheelbase, C5 = 51/49 on a 104.5" wheelbase.

Why would MX-5/S2000/GT86 not benefit from transaxle? I just don't understand how you come to the conclusion that transaxle increases wheel base. The GT86 has a wheelbase of 2.570 mm, the Porsche 944 has a wheel base of 2.400 mm. Same for the Alfa 75 it is a sedan with shorter wheel base than GT86.

Not an issue in those cars, they have back seats. It's not as big a deal to encroach on rear seat width by having a transaxle in front of the diff. Rear seats are fixed and in the kinds of cars we're talking about aren't expected to be comfortable for full-size humans. Front seats need a wider space to live in as 95th %ile humans have to fit and also the seats also have to be adjustable fore/aft at least. With a transaxle in a 2-seater you either have to make the car much wider or longer to have the required space for the seats.

What would be the disadvantage of a transaxle MX-5? Not weight increase, not wheelbase increase, not worse handling but on the contrary even better, but just price for customer, but that is the company's fault.

Dedicated small, lightweight 2-seat FR sports car, you want the rear wheels as close to the driver's backside as possible. With a transaxle in front of the diff, you either have to make the car significantly wider or shove the rear wheels aft as the tunnel dimensions to cover a transaxle has to be a lot bigger than tunnel dimensions to cover a drive shaft.

A Corvette can be wide, and can have a longish wheelbase, as it's more of a supercar. But the Miata should be SMALL. Wider or longer would make it less of a minimalist sports car.

Another point in favor of keeping the trans where it is: shifter is ON the transmission. With a transaxle the shifter is not directly attached to the trans, action has to go through linkages or (worse) cables.