BRZ and FR-S Sales Numbers Thread

[DarkSunrise]

It looks like we may be starting to see a decline in sales for the Twins. Given it's a niche sports car that's been out ~ 2.5 years with no significant updates, that's probably about right.

If Toyota wants to maintain FR-S/GT86 sales, I think it's time for a refresh. The chassis is still fantastic with awesome balance and feedback, so I would leave that alone to reduce development costs on the refresh.

I feel like they could make the biggest splash by increasing power. Maybe spend a little money bumping the base engine to 210 hp (which should be achievable through small exhaust and tuning revisions). Then figure out a way to release a $35k FI version making 280-300 hp.

To add a volume seller to the lineup (and subsidize development costs of the FI powertrain), create a lightweight $32k RWD sedan off the FI platform. That's the cash cow that will keep this profitable.

[babydriver]

Originally Posted by travisb

For September, Subaru sold 506 BRZ and Scion sold 920 FR-S, down from August sales of 720 and 1429 respectively.

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Including my 2015 FR-S!

I suspect that many of the August sales were "back to school" presents for college (and even high school) students. At least the highest density around here seems to be at my daughter's high school.

[UtahSleeper]

Originally Posted by DarkSunrise

It looks like we may be starting to see a decline in sales for the Twins. Given it's a niche sports car that's been out ~ 2.5 years with no significant updates, that's probably about right.

If Toyota wants to maintain FR-S/GT86 sales, I think it's time for a refresh. The chassis is still fantastic with awesome balance and feedback, so I would leave that alone to reduce development costs on the refresh.

I feel like they could make the biggest splash by increasing power. Maybe spend a little money bumping the base engine to 210 hp (which should be achievable through small exhaust and tuning revisions). Then figure out a way to release a $35k FI version making 280-300 hp.

To add a volume seller to the lineup (and subsidize development costs of the FI powertrain), create a lightweight $32k RWD sedan off the FI platform. That's the cash cow that will keep this profitable.

While there is a decline, all they really need to do as do the standard facelift stuff to get interest back. Everything I have read is that FI is not an option and I really don't see a reason for them to since you can buy a twin and FI it for less then what the OEM would nail you for. Plus, with that market this car appeals to, a 32 to 35k sports car is probably not going to move very well since they are not moving very quick at 25k.

Same thing happened to the RX8.
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01...s-figures.html

The S2000 didn't have stellar numbers either:
[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_S2000"]Honda S2000 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

Really, it's expected. I agree though that if the play with the tune and exhaust, with a small facelift, they can potentially revive interest in the car with people that don't own one already. Or, release a race prepped version and cut out things like AC, stereo or some other crap and try to get the car closer to 20k. Yes, it would be gimmicky, but it would save some people here time lol.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by DarkSunrise

It looks like we may be starting to see a decline in sales for the Twins. Given it's a niche sports car that's been out ~ 2.5 years with no significant updates, that's probably about right.

If Toyota wants to maintain FR-S/GT86 sales, I think it's time for a refresh. The chassis is still fantastic with awesome balance and feedback, so I would leave that alone to reduce development costs on the refresh.

I feel like they could make the biggest splash by increasing power. Maybe spend a little money bumping the base engine to 210 hp (which should be achievable through small exhaust and tuning revisions). Then figure out a way to release a $35k FI version making 280-300 hp.

To add a volume seller to the lineup (and subsidize development costs of the FI powertrain), create a lightweight $32k RWD sedan off the FI platform. That's the cash cow that will keep this profitable.

Part of the drop in sales numbers will be the availability of used cars now.

[DarkSunrise]

Originally Posted by UtahSleeper

While there is a decline, all they really need to do as do the standard facelift stuff to get interest back. Everything I have read is that FI is not an option and I really don't see a reason for them to since you can buy a twin and FI it for less then what the OEM would nail you for. Plus, with that market this car appeals to, a 32 to 35k sports car is probably not going to move very well since they are not moving very quick at 25k.

Same thing happened to the RX8.
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01...s-figures.html

The S2000 didn't have stellar numbers either:
Honda S2000 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Really, it's expected. I agree though that if the play with the tune and exhaust, with a small facelift, they can potentially revive interest in the car with people that don't own one already. Or, release a race prepped version and cut out things like AC, stereo or some other crap and try to get the car closer to 20k. Yes, it would be gimmicky, but it would save some people here time lol.

I guess where you and I differ is, I don't really see a continuing market for this car.

- The people who wanted a cheap, lightweight RWD car pretty much bought one already (or as Tcoat mentioned, any stragglers will go to the used market).

- Most of the guys waiting on the fence now are holding out for significantly more power, which I think only FI can address.

- I think FI can be a viable option if they can figure out another high volume platform to adapt the FI engine to. I think that could be a lightweight 86-based RWD sedan that would have much more universal appeal (i.e., sales volume) than the coupe. We know Toyota has given this some thought and done some preliminary development work on.

- Alternatively, perhaps the FI engine could be shoehorned into the upcoming Scion iM hatch to create a Speed3/FoST type competitor, which should also generate significant sales.

I think the mild power bump and facelift that you're describing is low risk in terms of development cost, but that's largely the route Honda and Mazda took with the S2000 and RX-8, and those cars didn't fare so well.

From what I've seen, the coupes in the market that stand the test of time and can justify their own development cost are largely tied to some sedan variant, such as the BMW coupes/sedans, Audi, MB, Infiniti, etc. I think that's a big reason why stand-alone sports cars like the RX-7/RX-8, S2000, 240sx, etc. have failed. The only time sports cars are profitable enough as stand-alone platforms are when the company itself is dedicated primarily to making sports cars, e.g., Porsche, Lambo, Ferrari.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by DarkSunrise

I guess where you and I differ is, I don't really see a continuing market for this car.

- The people who wanted a cheap, lightweight RWD car pretty much bought one already (or as Tcoat mentioned, any stragglers will go to the used market).

I think you are materially correct, if there is no significant change in the model. I'm not sure I would agree though that everyone that wants one, bought one. I have 3 sons who all want one, but they can't afford it. There are always people coming in and out of a market but the question is, is that sufficient enough volume to sustain the model. Also, what is the likelihood of previous owners buying a new one. I'd say pretty low unless there is a significant change or refresh. That is true with just about any car, even the best selling ones.

Originally Posted by DarkSunrise

From what I've seen, the coupes in the market that stand the test of time and can justify their own development cost are largely tied to some sedan variant, such as the BMW coupes/sedans, Audi, MB, Infiniti, etc. I think that's a big reason why stand-alone sports cars like the RX-7/RX-8, S2000, 240sx, etc. have failed. The only time sports cars are profitable enough as stand-alone platforms are when the company itself is dedicated primarily to making sports cars, e.g., Porsche, Lambo, Ferrari.

All true. Notice that the "stand-alone" models sell at a significantly higher price and they are also supported by other lines of revenue (branding, licensing of products, etc).

[DarkSunrise]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I think you are materially correct, if there is no significant change in the model. I'm not sure I would agree though that everyone that wants one, bought one. I have 3 sons who all want one, but they can't afford it. There are always people coming in and out of a market but the question is, is that sufficient enough volume to sustain the model. Also, what is the likelihood of previous owners buying a new one. I'd say pretty low unless there is a significant change or refresh. That is true with just about any car, even the best selling ones.



All true. Notice that the "stand-alone" models sell at a significantly higher price and they are also supported by other lines of revenue (branding, licensing of products, etc).

All good points.

[Rampage]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Part of the drop in sales numbers will be the availability of used cars now.

That is probably correct. I am one of those that, should I decide to buy one, would go used. A lightly used 2-3 year old car from a non-snow(road salt) state is the sweet spot. You do not take the big depreciation hit and the car will still probably have some drivetrain warranty left. IMO perfect.

[strat61caster]

It's outperforming pretty much every other Japanese sports car sold here in the past 15 years.

Typical Toyota will let the sales fall off a cliff before doing the cautious and economical thing of a mild update to drive a couple more sales and pay for the platform. Just look at the MR2 generations which disappeared from the US for several years. Look at Scion as a brand which Toyota told dealerships they can drop penalty free.

The longevity of this platform will hinge on the JDM. The US can justify enough sales for import imo, but whether or not it deserves a long lifespan or significant development will depend on how much Japan is clamoring for more.

Like someone else has said, they built the car they wanted to build, there ain't much to improve on. For every 100 internet commentators saying it needs moh powah I bet one of them would actually shell out for a >$30k FI Toyobaru with their 'required 200 rwhp'.

Originally Posted by Tcoat

I have never been able to find any Canadian sales numbers so if anybody knows whereto look I would appreciate it.

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/05...s-figures.html

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by DarkSunrise

I think that's a big reason why stand-alone sports cars like the RX-7/RX-8, S2000, 240sx, etc. have failed. The only time sports cars are profitable enough as stand-alone platforms are when the company itself is dedicated primarily to making sports cars, e.g., Porsche, Lambo, Ferrari.

I don't think that "failed" is the proper word. More like "discontinued" as per the manufacturer's plan.
People seem to have the impression that cars are developed, released, upgraded and discontinued based on some sort of year by year decision. This is not the case by far.

Car runs including upgrades and model year changes are planned for years and in some cases even decades. These marketing plans can be made before they are even off the drawing board.

I would bet that in a securely locked boardroom someplace in Japan is a timeline drawing of the FRS plans from initial release to end of run. This diagram will show every single proposed upgrade, special edition and model year change already. There is very probably even an "end of model" year already chosen.

Now, market changes may have some influence upon these changes but they would have to be significant in order to have any impact.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Rampage

That is probably correct. I am one of those that, should I decide to buy one, would go used. A lightly used 2-3 year old car from a non-snow(road salt) state is the sweet spot. You do not take the big depreciation hit and the car will still probably have some drivetrain warranty left. IMO perfect.

You mean all this time and you still don't have one????
I guess I presumed since you are on here so much.

Pffffffft Peasant!

But ya, used can work for many but I would always wonder just how "lightly used" any of these cars would be.

[daiheadjai]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Exactly. Up here the Toronto and Vancouver areas seem to be teeming with them but in 6 months I have only seen 5 in my area.

I think there's a correlation between the size of the Asian population of a region, and the number of 86 twins in that region (at least in Canada).
It's not a surprise that I see plenty of FRS/BRZs Markham/Scarborough/Richmond Hill (which boast large Chinese/Korean populations), but significantly less where I live (Eglinton/Leslie/midtown area).

Asians just tend not to see Mustangs or Camaros as alternatives - if we/they want a sports car or a sporty coupe, they will go with the Japanese (or Korean) choices.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by strat61caster

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/05...s-figures.html

Holly crap! I knew there were fewer but 10% of the U.S. sales is crazy!!!!

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by daiheadjai

I think there's a correlation between the size of the Asian population of a region, and the number of 86 twins in that region (at least in Canada).
It's not a surprise that I see plenty of FRS/BRZs Markham/Scarborough/Richmond Hill (which boast large Chinese/Korean populations), but significantly less where I live (Eglinton/Leslie/midtown area).

Asians just tend not to see Mustangs or Camaros as alternatives - if we/they want a sports car or a sporty coupe, they will go with the Japanese (or Korean) choices.

That would certainly explain part of it. I have no clue on the demographics of the Toronto area but can imagine you hit it right on.
Thanks!