Bad Sign for Future Twins, or Blessing? [Article]

[Koa]

Could Japan's now-official recession spell doom and gloom for Fuji Heavy/Toyota?

Or is this an opportunity for us to get more value for our foreign currency (written as an American/foreigner to Japan)?

Discuss!

http://online.wsj.com/articles/japan...ion-1416182404

[rice_classic]

"To read the full story you must subscribe or login".

Well, I guess it's just not that important then...

[NemesisPrime909]

maybe the prices will go down

[NemesisPrime909]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30077122

full story

[rice_classic]

Originally Posted by NemesisPrime909

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30077122

full story

Thanks.


THIS RIGHT HERE. This is the crux of the problem with just about ANY recovery. WAGES HAVE TO INCREASE.

Originally Posted by news article

But the gamble has not paid off. Japanese consumers have stopped spending and the economy is back in recession. Why? The fall in the yen gave a huge cash windfall to Japanese exporters. But instead of increasing the wages of their employees, they have sat on the money.

Economies that are heavily dependent on consumerism as a critical factor in government revenue don't just need high employment figures (japan has those) they need wage growth. Give the people at the bottom and the 'lower-middle' better wages and more spending happens at the same time you can bring others off of government welfare programs.

So you want to know what's a bad sign for the Twins? The incredible lack of wage growth, just about everywhere.

[Rampage]

Originally Posted by rice_classic

Thanks.


THIS RIGHT HERE. This is the crux of the problem with just about ANY recovery. WAGES HAVE TO INCREASE.


Economies that are heavily dependent on consumerism as a critical factor in government revenue don't just need high employment figures (japan has those) they need wage growth. Give the people at the bottom and the 'lower-middle' better wages and more spending happens at the same time you can bring others off of government welfare programs.

So you want to know what's a bad sign for the Twins? The incredible lack of wage growth, just about everywhere.

While I do not disagree with your assessment, the truth of the matter is that Wage Growth is often an illusion. People may think they are better off because they get a raise or make more money than they did last year but the reality is that their buying power usually remains consistently the same. The normal cycle is that when wages go up then prices (inflation) also go up at least as much and the middle class and low income families gain nothing. Psychologically, they may feel like they are ahead for a time and spend money but that usually leads to over spending on their part which leads to high personal debt because they actually do not have more money to spend.

It is a vicious cycle that is a real part of the capitalist economic system. Unions and pro-labor pundits always call for higher minimum wage and wage growth but in reality it never solves the issue of buying power. It just makes people feel like they are making progress temporarily when in truth the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen. The only real answer is to increase buying power. This can be done by lowering prices with steady wages or raising wages but locking prices. Then the corporations and rich do not get the benefit instead of the consumers. An example of that is the falling oil prices. I have seen numbers that say the average family is saving about $700 USD per year due to that. Watch the spending this holiday season. I predict that it will reflect people willingness to buy based on those saving.

[Skurge]

i doubt it will change a thing, toyota has more money than they know what to do with, i doubt they are hurting at all

[Dimman]

Originally Posted by rice_classic

Thanks.


THIS RIGHT HERE. This is the crux of the problem with just about ANY recovery. WAGES HAVE TO INCREASE.


Economies that are heavily dependent on consumerism as a critical factor in government revenue don't just need high employment figures (japan has those) they need wage growth. Give the people at the bottom and the 'lower-middle' better wages and more spending happens at the same time you can bring others off of government welfare programs.

So you want to know what's a bad sign for the Twins? The incredible lack of wage growth, just about everywhere.

Henry Ford had this figured out ages ago.

[Levi]

The problem is capitalism, or at least the way it is today. But well don't want to get into economic theory. However, Japan's recession, is only the tip of the ice-berg. West (EU-US) is no better off, Russian economy is hurt, China is slowing down, not to mention other issues.

To answer to OP, it is defenitely a bad sign, but not only for the twins. For the Supra and SC too. But also for the NSX. But it goes futher as it is also not good for BMW.

Remember all the cars that were green lighted or almost ready for production, but were canceled due recession: HSV (NSX V10), M8, CS,...

[Rampage]

The silver lining is that if you want parts from Japan then now would be a good time to buy based on the value of the yen vs the USD.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dimman

Henry Ford had this figured out ages ago.

And where did that eventually get the North American car manufacturers?

[Dimman]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

And where did that eventually get the North American car manufacturers?

There is a significant difference between what Henry Ford chose to do in a very different economic time, and the excesses of today (both by terrible management and UAW together).

[reni]

Originally Posted by Levi

Remember all the cars that were green lighted or almost ready for production, but were canceled due recession: HSV (NSX V10), M8, CS,...

Note really a valid comparison, as those were due to a global recession -- being that Japan exports many more cars than it sells domestically, there was nobody to sell to anywhere. This time it is a local issue caused by a drop in spending due the domestic sales tax hike.

[NemesisPrime909]

Originally Posted by Rampage

The silver lining is that if you want parts from Japan then now would be a good time to buy based on the value of the yen vs the USD.

possibly true