2018 BRZ Orders Open. tS and 50th Anniversary Due April

[deejaylew]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Any difference in deprecation will probably be minimal at best if you base it on the previous special editions. If worried about this subject you are best to stay away from new cars. They always depreciate and it can be unpredictable. Your 2017 WRX could plummet in value when they release the next gen on the new platform. Or it could skyrocket if the new version sucks. You just can't predict what will go up or down no matter what logic you try to apply.

Agreed on all fronts, just hoping we had some sort of data to back up a possible reason why this might hold value strong. Its always risky buying a car with the expectation of not keeping it long term, that's why I come to you guys for any insight no matter how small.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by deejaylew

I paid MSRP, sold for about 10k less from what i remember. Thats a significant % loss and what does the fact that the going rate for a BRZ was MSRP+ change? Expectations was a ~5k loss. That's just not what happened. If you're insinuating negligence for buying a brz early that's ok I'm not perfect.

I expected subaru resale value, many of us did. We were wrong, not sure why everything I say seems to be controversial?

It is only controversial because of how you presented it. The influx of FRSs are not to blame for the value of the BRZ since they were really the same car. Without that influx the BRZ would not have existed in the first place. Not all Subarus held their value well. If you were expecting the resale of some select high end models then I can see how you were disappointed. Even then a drop of $10K over two years is still right about average and not as bad as you make it out to be.

[deejaylew]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

It is only controversial because of how you presented it. The influx of FRSs are not to blame for the value of the BRZ since they were really the same car. Without that influx the BRZ would not have existed in the first place. Not all Subarus held their value well. If you were expecting the resale of some select high end models then I can see how you were disappointed. Even then a drop of $10K over two years is still right about average and not as bad as you make it out to be.

I think where we differ is in how we see the 10k drop. For a sub 30k non German vehicle that just seems a little crazy to me.

Where the FRS comes into play here is those people were selling lower for obvious reasons. I think it accelerated the BRZ value decline, those of us selling just couldn't compete. If you think about it we made the mistake by buying the brz over the FRS, we paid a slight premium and lost that value immediately because of the shared chassis.

[dowroa]

Originally Posted by deejaylew

Agreed on all fronts, just hoping we had some sort of data to back up a possible reason why this might hold value strong. Its always risky buying a car with the expectation of not keeping it long term, that's why I come to you guys for any insight no matter how small.

Is the premise that this is a garage queen car that stays stock and sits or is actually used for intention?

2017 Yellow.Series Current Used Avg Depreciation (27k avg) - 9.0756%

2016 Hyper.Blue Series Current Used Avg Depreciation (21k avg) - 26.2%

2015 Series.Blue Current Used Avg Depreciation (21k Avg) - 30.6587%

2014 Monogram Series Average Depreciation (~17k USD): 37.956%

2013 Series 1.0 Used Average Depreciation (~16K USD): 41.8076%

Those are for cars that were used.

I think you can plot a general trend from the limited used car data available and see relevance to limited pricing and where the tS would arrive:

• New - $33,495
• 0 - 1 yr - 30145.5
• 1 - 2 yrs - 24786.3
• 2 - 3 yrs - 23228.7825
• 3 - 4 yrs - 20781.6378
• 4 - 5 yrs - 19491.5443

It is a gross extrapolation based on limited data points. However, I think that is a reasonable guesstimate for a car actually driven. It may be higher, as I was calculating without TTL, but ball park.

[deejaylew]

Originally Posted by dowroa

Is the premise that this is a garage queen car that stays stock and sits or is actually used for intention?

2017 Yellow.Series Current Used Avg Depreciation (27k avg) - 9.0756%

2016 Hyper.Blue Series Current Used Avg Depreciation (21k avg) - 26.2%

2015 Series.Blue Current Used Avg Depreciation (21k Avg) - 30.6587%

Those are for cars that were used.

I think you can plot a general trend from the limited used car data available and see relevance to limited pricing and where the tS would arrive:

• New - $33,495
• off the lot - 1 yr - 30145.5
• 1 - 2 yrs - 24786.3
• 2 - 3 yrs - 23228.7825

It is a gross extrapolation based on limited data points. However, I think that is a reasonable guesstimate for a car actually driven. It may be higher, as I was calculating without TTL, but ball park.

Impressive... seriously! I would end up driving it to and from work, the wife's impreza does the heavy lifting in the family. Based on the past limited ed models this might be a bad purchase in my particular situation. I may end up eating the grunt of the depreciation before it levels off.. years after i've gotten rid of it.

My only other option for getting back in a BRZ is to wait for the used market in my area to make sense.. Can't snag a 13-14 near the KBB value. The southern "no salt on the roads therefore our cars are better" tax. I'd love to just have a brz as a second car, the car is brilliant in the curves.

Hell of a post man, Much appreciated. That's as close to hard data on an imperfect science as you can get.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by deejaylew

Cars depreciating is normal what I saw from the BRZ was not normal. People who weren't around when the car came out don't remember this was a HOT car. Dealers were selling for msrp or msrp+ 2-3k. after a year and a half the used market was flooded with lower priced FRS'. Those of us who wanted out early got shafted. So no.. what I'm referring to is not normal. After 10+ car purchases I can say that confidently.

What you may be missing (or may not) is that there were way more FRS than BRZs and all the FRS's were sold at MSRP because of "Pure Pricing". Subaru dealers could put a premium on them above the already higher price because they didn't have the pure price model. When the used market hit its stride two years later, the FRS was selling for a fair used price, and so was the BRZ. It's just that it appeared different because some people were willing to pay the ADP (Additional Dealer Profit) markups on the BRZ.

ADP is like the sales tax on a car...it's money that has no relationship to the resale value of the car.

Perfect example in another model. When the 2005 Mustangs came out (this was the first year of the "retro" model) you couldn't get one the first few months for less than $5,000 over sticker in the Atlanta area. By the time we bought the one MomHawk still drives in Oct, 2005, we got it for $1,500 under sticker price. Her car was worth just as much in 10/2006 as the one some guy bought when he had to pay the ADP in 01/2005.

[deejaylew]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

What you may be missing (or may not) is that there were way more FRS than BRZs and all the FRS's were sold at MSRP because of "Pure Pricing". Subaru dealers could put a premium on them above the already higher price because they didn't have the pure price model. When the used market hit its stride two years later, the FRS was selling for a fair used price, and so was the BRZ. It's just that it appeared different because some people were willing to pay the ADP (Additional Dealer Profit) markups on the BRZ.

ADP is like the sales tax on a car...it's money that has no relationship to the resale value of the car.

Perfect example in another model. When the 2005 Mustangs came out (this was the first year of the "retro" model) you couldn't get one the first few months for less than $5,000 over sticker in the Atlanta area. By the time we bought the one MomHawk still drives in Oct, 2005, we got it for $1,500 under sticker price. Her car was worth just as much in 10/2006 as the one some guy bought when he had to pay the ADP in 01/2005.

In 2013 I don't think Scion had an equivalent for the BRZ Limited. Starting price was 500 higher than the starting price for the FRS base model for base model, but the BRZ was higher priced anyway because many opted for the limited (It was really the only reason to buy a BRZ other than the badge). This really has nothing to do with ADP, the market atmosphere just adjusted the BRZ price on it's own. The used market just wasn't willing to pay extra for a BRZ when every publication was telling them "It's the same car".

[jorgerendonjr]

Originally Posted by deejaylew

In 2013 I don't think Scion had an equivalent for the BRZ Limited. Starting price was 500 higher than the starting price for the FRS base model for base model, but the BRZ was higher priced anyway because many opted for the limited (It was really the only reason to buy a BRZ other than the badge). This really has nothing to do with ADP, the market atmosphere just adjusted the BRZ price on it's own. The used market just wasn't willing to pay extra for a BRZ when every publication was telling them "It's the same car".

In 2013 Scion had the series 10

[mazeroni]

Originally Posted by jorgerendonjr

In 2013 Scion had the series 10

Aye. They made 2500 of them. Retail was 27,495 for the MT. The BRZ limited was also 27,495, according to autoblog.

Except the Series 10 does not have leather or heated seats. I think that is the only real difference, besides the spoiler design and lighted emblems.

My car was made April or May of 2013 - can't remember precisely. Dunno when first owner bought it or how much they paid.

I got it in August of 2015 and paid something like $20,500 before tax, registration, and dealer stuff. So it had around a 30% drop in price. That's with 26K miles on the clock.

I'm not entirely following this conversation, but maybe this helps to add some clarity?

[dowroa]

Originally Posted by mazeroni

Aye. They made 2500 of them. Retail was 27,495 for the MT. The BRZ limited was also 27,495, according to autoblog.

Except the Series 10 does not have leather or heated seats. I think that is the only real difference, besides the spoiler design and lighted emblems.

My car was made April or May of 2013 - can't remember precisely. Dunno when first owner bought it or how much they paid.

I got it in August of 2015 and paid something like $20,500 before tax, registration, and dealer stuff. So it had around a 30% drop in price. That's with 26K miles on the clock.

I'm not entirely following this conversation, but maybe this helps to add some clarity?

They appear to be going for a median right now of about 16k.

The 2014 Monogram appears to be going for 17k.

Reference:https://cargur.us/k_F49

• 2014 Monogram Series Average Depreciation (~17k USD): 37.956%
• 2013 Series 1.0 Used Average Depreciation (~16K USD): 41.8076%

Edit: Found it!

[Clutch]

Originally Posted by HKz

pretty sure that color is Steel (86)/Ice Silver Metallic (Subaru)

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[Veloist]

Originally Posted by Clutch

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IMO this should have been the 50th Anniversary color

[mazeroni]

Originally Posted by dowroa

They appear to be going for a median right now of about 16k.

The 2014 Monogram appears to be going for 17k.

Reference:https://cargur.us/k_F49

• 2014 Monogram Series Average Depreciation (~17k USD): 37.956%
• 2013 Series 1.0 Used Average Depreciation (~16K USD): 41.8076%

Edit: Found it!

Eh, well, I dunno about those trims. According to KBB, with 'good' quality my Series 10 is work $9-11K on trade in with 60K miles.

[dowroa]

Originally Posted by mazeroni

Eh, well, I dunno about those trims. According to KBB, with 'good' quality my Series 10 is work $9-11K on trade in with 60K miles.

I am using actual used car prices in the market, not assumed values. That is from Nation-wide searches and averaging the results I found with varying mileage of those 60k and under (actual market yield).

As stated, a rough estimate.