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Old 06-30-2021, 03:24 PM   #2955
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Ok UM we need something measurable. How do we measure that?

I suppose we could include cases of histoplasmosis from the inhalation of all the chicken shit.
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:24 PM   #2956
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So let's think about it for a bit.

What we'd like to do is to specify a model that would incorporate as many potential causes/explanations for the number of excess deaths as possible.

What sorts of things/events could we include?

Natural disasters?

Famines?

unrelated healthcare system collapses (we know many health systems collapsed - due to the covid crush) but might there be non-covid related instances?

Outbreaks of other diseases? Which ones?

Covid aside, what about 2020 was special? What would make so many more people die of cardio-pulmonary (or other) diseases than would normally be expected?

What do you guys think?
Potential post Covid baby boom...
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:31 PM   #2957
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Ok UM we need something measurable. How do we measure that?
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:41 PM   #2958
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@Dadhawk. A lot of folks have talked about "overreporting" covid deaths. It seems to this is a definitional problem. Can you help me understand exactly what you're referring to.
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:51 PM   #2959
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@Dadhawk. I'm not trying to be flippant. On the preceding page you mentioned overreporting as being due to Covid bringing to the fore a pre-existing problem. If someone has such a problem but would not have died at that time but for Covid, did Covid kill them?
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:54 PM   #2960
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@Dadhawk. A lot of folks have talked about "overreporting" covid deaths. It seems to this is a definitional problem. Can you help me understand exactly what you're referring to.
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@Dadhawk. I'm not trying to be flippant. On the preceding page you mentioned overreporting as being due to Covid bringing to the fore a pre-existing problem. If someone has such a problem but would not have died at that time but for Covid, did Covid kill them?
There was a lot of talk about persons passing away from other reasons (such as a heart attack) but were tested and had COVID at the time so the death was attributed to COVID in whole or in part, that type of thing. Again, it was early in the pandemic and I haven't seen anything about it recently.

Basically its the different side of the same coin.
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Old 06-30-2021, 04:10 PM   #2961
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There was a lot of talk about persons passing away from other reasons (such as a heart attack) but were tested and had COVID at the time so the death was attributed to COVID in whole or in part, that type of thing. Again, it was early in the pandemic and I haven't seen anything about it recently.

Basically its the different side of the same coin.
Yeah. There was a lot of disinformation about attribution of cause of death early on.

The key and major difficulty drawing a connection between Covid and the cause of death. There's an interesting rule in personal injury law called the "eggshell skull rule." Essentially, if you have a serious underlying condition and I negligently aggravate that condition resulting in your death I am responsible for killing you. The fact that you were fragile to begin with is irrelevant. To make it work, you (in this case your estate) have to draw a connection between whatever I did and your demise.

The Covid situation strikes me as a variation on this theme. Perhaps the excess death question is a way to disentangle some of the threads.
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Old 06-30-2021, 05:13 PM   #2962
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Some people most likely avoided going to the e.r. if they were feeling distress leading to worse outcomes for cardiac or other life-threatening episodes. Some cancers or other conditions might have gone undiagnosed or untreated where prognoses could have been better. A result of a clogged healthcare system and circulating fear from the pandemic. Also don't overlook this seems to have taken place in marginalized and low income communities. This makes me think aboriginal or rural. Also maybe multi family immigrant type dwelling situations. Pretty sure suicides have increased as well. Some people have lost jobs, and possibly their homes from this pandemic.
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Old 07-01-2021, 09:12 AM   #2963
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If we (as a country) were smart, we would learn from the experiences of others (as well as our own recent past). We would see what is happening in other countries due to the Delta (and other) variants and proactively take action to prevent another surge, rather than let it happen and then bemoan the consequences.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/w...nt-global.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/28/how-...or-the-us.html

But, we're not. As my wife has said from the start of this mess, the only thing that gets people's attention are bodies piling up. It's such a tragic shame that it will likely take a rising death count before a lot of people will pay attention and do what's necessary.

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Old 07-01-2021, 10:09 AM   #2964
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I recall my friend whining to me by text why aren't we opening everything up back on March 18. Telling me we are clueless here, FL has the right idea, blah blah blah. I argued it's the deaths and hospitalizations. And this is just as we were getting into the third wave. He gave me all the arguments that it's only old people dying to put a bubble over them and carry on, that we will cause more deaths and suicides otherwise. Insulted me a few times saying I don't know shit about legislation politics etc. I do know a bit about infectious disease though and and lawyers dont work in the ICU. Sadly I think that argument probably damaged our friendship.
PS not into politics, especially when talk is really cheap.

It would be REALLY disheartening if we stood by and watched a 4th wave run through as a result of some other variant at this stage. We are over 70% first shot and 25% second shot here in Ontario. If we let things go, then we will all need a 3rd vaccine for sure within a year or less, I'd predict.

Happy Canada Day.
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Old 07-01-2021, 01:22 PM   #2965
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We have a clear window into who are homicidal/genocidal people... Yet we try to reason with them? F*** that. It doesn't work. If thinning the herd is the answer, they should be the ones to go.

Though at the rate we're going we'll not have enough water to go around soon...
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Old 07-01-2021, 04:23 PM   #2966
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If we (as a country) were smart, we would learn from the experiences of others (as well as our own recent past). We would see what is happening in other countries due to the Delta (and other) variants and proactively take action to prevent another surge, rather than let it happen and then bemoan the consequences.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/w...nt-global.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/28/how-...or-the-us.html

But, we're not. As my wife has said from the start of this mess, the only thing that gets people's attention are bodies piling up. It's such a tragic shame that it will likely take a rising death count before a lot of people will pay attention and do what's necessary.
Honestly/sadly not even this, because people find/make up excuses like "comorbidities" and whatever to hand-wave it off.
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Old 07-01-2021, 05:54 PM   #2967
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I recall my friend whining to me by text why aren't we opening everything up back on March 18. Telling me we are clueless here, FL has the right idea, blah blah blah. I argued it's the deaths and hospitalizations. And this is just as we were getting into the third wave. He gave me all the arguments that it's only old people dying to put a bubble over them and carry on, that we will cause more deaths and suicides otherwise. Insulted me a few times saying I don't know shit about legislation politics etc. I do know a bit about infectious disease though and and lawyers dont work in the ICU. Sadly I think that argument probably damaged our friendship.
PS not into politics, especially when talk is really cheap.

It would be REALLY disheartening if we stood by and watched a 4th wave run through as a result of some other variant at this stage. We are over 70% first shot and 25% second shot here in Ontario. If we let things go, then we will all need a 3rd vaccine for sure within a year or less, I'd predict.

Happy Canada Day.
Actually, I do know a bit about legislation and politics. Based on that, I suspect your "friend" is suffering from a terminal case of "cranial proctitis."
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Old 07-02-2021, 09:02 AM   #2968
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Honestly/sadly not even this, because people find/make up excuses like "comorbidities" and whatever to hand-wave it off.
Unfortunately, you're absolutely right. Even a body pile won't convince a lot of people. We've already seen the yowling about how 'they died of something else', and 'hospitals only say it was COVID because they get paid more that way'.
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