GR 86: Orders /Reservation /Waitlist Chat

[TheDonEffect]

On one hand I get having stock on hand to capture the impulse purchase, or the consumers that approach car buying as ok Saturday is the day I'm going to buy a car, so I will be a car on Saturday. And it's good to have options to show a customer who will buy right then and there, and also creates opportunities to upsell.

On the other hand, this creates terrible inefficiencies, namely real estate. I never saw the need of having 300 cars on the lot, especially if they're redundant. Larger lots means you need more staff coverage, etc etc. Better approach would be is to have a good representation of what's on hand in a comfortable showroom, and have the stock somewhere else or build as needed, and then deliver it. Having a large dealer, in a desirable location that has good traffic, only creates a higher overhead which then dealers turn to less than savory ways to capture profit.

I'd much rather go to a fixed pricing model, and I see more and more dealers adopting this. Just like with anything else, things go on sale, deals can be had, but this price discrimination model that we have now needs to stop, just creates too many pain points during the experience.

Anyway, where the **** is my 86, lol.

[Liquidsnake]

I’m exhausted!!! In most cases I can’t even get the dealer to call me back after they confirm that a car is not reserved or I throw some numbers at them. They’re all like OK I’ll call you back and then I never hear from them again where is the negotiating where is the talking where is the wheeling in dealing

[Robertw]

Meanwhile I have dealerships hounding me when I call to put a deposit down immediately for a car knowing full well they have no chance in hell getting me the car I want.

[Decep]

Tcoat since you work in the industry is there any insight on how long backlogs are, or are all the estimates BS? My father works with chip suppliers at his job and they're saying 2024 now but no one knows

[Doc_Bch_Stkrs]

Is anyone else seeing more inventory in their area either VIA the Toyota Inventory search or dealer site? Last week there were 4 86's, 3 of them ATs. Now they're showing 9, 8 of them MTs. I'm trying to watch the market in my area to see how much inventory my local dealers get and how long it typically hangs around for. I'm in the Mid-Atlantic region.

I'm OCONUS for a little longer and hoping to get one sometime this fall when I return. I have a Jeep I can daily drive while I wait, but hoping I can make the timing work between putting in for an allocation and picking it up. Are the ones on the Toyota inventory tool available for dealers to get through allocation, or does that include allocation for 'pre selected' cars that people put deposits on?

[fredzy]

Originally Posted by Doc_Bch_Stkrs

Is anyone else seeing more inventory in their area either VIA the Toyota Inventory search or dealer site? Last week there were 4 86's, 3 of them ATs. Now they're showing 9, 8 of them MTs. I'm trying to watch the market in my area to see how much inventory my local dealers get and how long it typically hangs around for. I'm in the Mid-Atlantic region.

I'm OCONUS for a little longer and hoping to get one sometime this fall when I return. I have a Jeep I can daily drive while I wait, but hoping I can make the timing work between putting in for an allocation and picking it up. Are the ones on the Toyota inventory tool available for dealers to get through allocation, or does that include allocation for 'pre selected' cars that people put deposits on?

I've noticed several pop up in the VA area recently from an automated search. Seems to be a bit of a hot spot - hopefully the trend continues elsewhere.

What you found are allocations already assigned to dealers. They most likely had customers waiting for those allocations so were never really available, but call the dealer to be sure, you never know.

[drivejumpfly]

Pavement 6 speed MT premium on Autotrader right now for $5K markup in KY showing available from what I can see.

A Neptune 6 speed MT premium also on Autotrader but a TEN THOUSAND DOLLAR markup in Texas!

Early bird gets the worm! Good luck!

There is also a steel base 6 speed in a classifieds on another similar forum for $32K with all kinds of warranties and 1700 miles. Not a bad deal.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Decep

Tcoat since you work in the industry is there any insight on how long backlogs are, or are all the estimates BS? My father works with chip suppliers at his job and they're saying 2024 now but no one knows

OK. So I could write a 5,000 word essay on this subject but will try to keep it as short as possible. Even then I know that many of the internet "experts" will say it is not accurate as the flip the burgers and ask "do you want fries with that" at their day job.

First off the chip shortage is the thing you hear about the most but it is really just the tip of the iceberg. The news makes it sound like the shortage just affects the final product in the vehicles. It actually goes way beyond that and has become sort of an Old Lady That Swallowed a Fly scenario (Look up the song if you don't know). The shortage has impacted the equipment needed to make the parts for the machines that are used to make the parts for those final products. This includes the equipment to make the chips themselves. It is a vicious circle of electronics manufacturing downtime at this point. If it was the only issue then car manufacturing would stabilize as soon as the electronics issues do. Unfortunately it is not.

The next part of our current situation started back in 2008-9. During that "recession" the automotive parts industry took a massive hit. The slowdown in sales and cancellation of orders ultimately took out over 30% of the smaller parts suppliers worldwide. The larger companies had to scramble to take up the slack while still operating at reduced capacities or risk bankruptcy as well. This did leave the survivors stronger but also considerably reduced the number of facilities that were even able to produce parts. It also focused the whole industry on the Just In Time and Kan Ban.
The days of huge warehouses full of ready to go parts are long gone now. If the assembly plant need 100 plastic clips to make 400 cars per shift then just before the start of that shift a truck will pull up and drop off 4,000 plastic clips. For example this morning we received the materials to make parts this afternoon that will be on vehicles in the assembly plant by tomorrow afternoon. Our plant in Windsor that preassembles complete suspensions for a vehicle works on a hour lead time. In other words when a vehicle hits the assembly line our plant receives a VIN and assembles the suspension for that specific vehicle. It then gets shipped to the assembly plant and hits the line just in time to be bolted onto the assigned vehicle. The same applies to engines, transmissions and anything else with a VIN on them. Those numbers are not put on as they reach the line they are made with that number and brought to the line for that car. This idea that there is a warehouse full of built engines that I read on the internet so often is just wrong. As you can imagine these systems do not lend them selves to ANY interruption!

Unfortunately the interruptions right now are far more than just the chips. First off, contrary to popular belief, COVID has not just gone away. There have been many parts slowdowns due to COVID and THEY ARE STILL HAPPENING. It doesn't take a whole plant to shut down to cause parts shortages. If a plant needs 20 people to make those plastic clips and 4 are off for COVID they can scramble to make up the numbers but the odds are they will fall behind. There are parts plants in the US that still get shutdown due to outbreaks to this day and China is just coming out of a month long lockdown so many many parts are behind schedule.
The other huge impactor is transport. All those parts have to get to the plants by rail, ship and truck. All of these transport methods have taken a huge hit over the last two years and delays are way more common than in peacetime history (WW2 was the last time world wide transport was so badly interrupted). This issue also applies to the finished products. It is great to have a bunch of cars made but sitting on a dock in Japan with no way of getting them anyplace. Every day I drive past the plant where the Chevy Equinox is assembled and look at the several hundred cars sitting in the fields and lots around it. The problem they are having is simply not enough trucks to even get them to the rail heads to get shipped out. They have millions of dollars of cash flow tied up in product just sitting there and they can't get it to market.
Finally is the new wrinkle in the system. The Russian war in the Ukraine has put a stop to many of the raw materials used for parts. Although neither place actually makes many parts they are major exports of things like nickel, lead, cobalt, and many other materials needed to make car parts. Not only has that supply been cut off by sanctions the prices of the remaining sources have gone through the roof with increase of up to 250% happening overnight. Companies with contracts to provide parts (i.e. batteries) at a certain price are going to take a huge hit and car prices down the road are going to reflect this.

Multiply all these issues by the thousands of components and subcomponents and subsubcomponents (add several more sub levels here) in a car and there will be delays in the final product. Worldwide there are 106 cars made every minute. The average for Toyota is 20 a minute! A slight delay of parts for even an hour is 1,200 cars. So far the Toyota plants have been shut down for a total of about 6 WEEKS. This does not include spot delays or just shift reductions. I will let you do the math.

So... As you can see, there is far more than just the chip shortage at play here. These statements are not my opinion, theory, or any other personal feelings but the cold hard facts as presented just last week by the CEO of one of the top five automotive parts companies in the world.
To answer your original question yes, things are expected to LEVEL OFF by 2024. Will they be "better"? Probably, if nothing else happens and all the current issues get corrected soon.
Will they be like 2019 and earlier? No, never again. Like pre 2008 those days for the industry are changed forever.
Everybody needs to understand that when they ask "How does Toyota/Subaru do this or that" it is now a meaningless question because it no longer applies. Patience is all that will help those waiting on cars in this new age.

[Liquidsnake]

Excellent write up^^^^^^

[Sasquachulator]

A cold hard dose of reality.

So if things are expected to taper off (rather than back to normal) then we can expect "pre-pandemic normal" to actually be a few years after that? so like say 2026?

[Liquidsnake]

Originally Posted by Sasquachulator

A cold hard dose of reality.

So if things are expected to taper off (rather than back to normal) then we can expect "pre-pandemic normal" to actually be a few years after that? so like say 2026?

By that time gas cars will be extinct. So it doesn’t look good for any of us.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Sasquachulator

A cold hard dose of reality.

So if things are expected to taper off (rather than back to normal) then we can expect "pre-pandemic normal" to actually be a few years after that? so like say 2026?

The "pre pandemic normal" will never be seen again as there are fundamental changes happening in the industry that just will not go back.

One of the things I believe we will see (and is already happening actually) is a reduction in dealerships and the stock that they hold. Don't know about your area but here Toyota, Hyundai and even Subaru are all advertising "order the car you want now and get it by summer". There are almost constant radio ads for the three and probaly other manufacturers that I just haven't noticed. This is going to be the way the industry is going to end up even when all this is "over". It actually makes a lot of sense in the world of Amazon and Costco since it saves them a pile of overhead and maintains far better cash flow.
It does suck for the people that need or want a car right away though. Also will kill the impulse market (I would never have bought my first FRS if I hadn't stumbled across it in the showroom) but I figure they know and accept that part.

See the trend (in Canada at least)?

[nextcar]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

The "pre pandemic normal" will never be seen again as there are fundamental changes happening in the industry that just will not go back.

One of the things I believe we will see (and is already happening actually) is a reduction in dealerships and the stock that they hold. Don't know about your area but here Toyota, Hyundai and even Subaru are all advertising "order the car you want now and get it by summer". There are almost constant radio ads for the three and probaly other manufacturers that I just haven't noticed. This is going to be the way the industry is going to end up even when all this is "over". It actually makes a lot of sense in the world of Amazon and Costco since it saves them a pile of overhead and maintains far better cash flow.
It does suck for the people that need or want a car right away though. Also will kill the impulse market (I would never have bought my first FRS if I hadn't stumbled across it in the showroom) but I figure they know and accept that part.

See the trend (in Canada at least)?

So in other words: Tesla paved the way again. (BTW, I don't particularly care for Tesla, but it certainly changed/led the way in the industry). Small showrooms, no inventory, direct order, and separate service centers appears to be the future.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by nextcar

So in other words: Tesla paved the way again. (BTW, I don't particularly care for Tesla, but it certainly changed/led the way in the industry). Small showrooms, no inventory, direct order, and separate service centers appears to be the future.

Yep. They of course have to get through the delivery issues but that will come in time. People are not going to want to wait 6 months for their base model Corolla like they would for a Tesla.