03-28-2023, 08:18 AM | #85 | |
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03-28-2023, 09:20 AM | #86 |
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Maybe flack isn't the right word but eventually, assuming regulations and such stay in place, Toyota is going to be behind the industry on this though so not sure it's a long term strategic plan to not get on the train.
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03-28-2023, 11:48 AM | #87 |
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Waiting for better battery technology seems like a pretty sound strategy to me.
Let's be honest, do you see them giving up the sales crown any time soon? I don't.
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03-28-2023, 12:08 PM | #88 |
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Leaving each MFG to spitball the entire battery build from dirt to sparks isn't helping the planet much.
So far. Even getting a standard plug is worse than herding cats. Laptop standards certainly haven't improved.
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03-28-2023, 01:24 PM | #89 |
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^pay no attention to the man in the corner, lol.
Anyway, MR2! Between this or a GR86 getting the G16 engine I give it 50/50.
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03-28-2023, 02:14 PM | #90 | |
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Since a bunch of their models are getting redesigns in 2024/2025, im guessing in the 2030ish timeframe the next redesign or refreshes is when they'll make a bigger push with EV's. The EV landscape should be more saturated, and infrastructure shouldnt be much of an issue anymore, but i highly doubt it'll be the fantasy world thinking of the majority of road going cars are EV's. i could see 50% adoption rate not being a outside the realm of possibility though. Besides by that time rolls around, even if they dont get the "first in line" EV buyers, they'll have the true EV platform, better electric tech and battery tech ready. plus like phones i dont think you'd want to be stuck with a last generation product being vastly inferior to the next generation product (until the point of diminishing returns is reached, then having a several generation old product wont feel so out of date). Last edited by Sasquachulator; 03-29-2023 at 03:43 PM. |
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03-28-2023, 10:09 PM | #91 | |
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03-29-2023, 08:44 AM | #92 |
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Yes, it's hard to keep sheep calm.
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03-29-2023, 01:04 PM | #93 | |
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The big difference for the future could be vertical integration versus a fractured approach; eg, like Apple vs Windows/Android. Both production methods might be fine, but Tesla could gain a market advantage in profit, or they could pass that on to consumers with a better value car. It will be hard for manufactures to play catchup if they aren't working on their own battery factories and instead rely on multiple different battery manufactures to build batteries for their products. We will see which strategy pans out.
Plug-in hybrids will probably be the big thing for the industry where the range is maybe 50 miles and a weak engine powers the battery directly. This means there is no need for a transmission/driveshaft/axles to directly power the wheels from the engine, but just an engine attached to a converter in any position making packaging simpler; the electric motor will power the wheels. While this is inherently less efficient and costs more emissions, the advantage is no range anxiety and having a smaller battery and lighter car than having to carry round a huge battery capable of 400 miles of range only to be using 50 miles a day in range. Toyota is betting on hydrogen. They will do EVs too, but their long term strategy is hydrogen, and Japan is investing in red hydrogen (nuclear) production to deliver on that strategy. Quote:
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03-29-2023, 04:18 PM | #94 | |
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No.
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03-29-2023, 07:25 PM | #95 | |
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Revenue is going to be from car sales, warranty sales, replacement part sales, maybe service sales, etc (1), the majority of which is from their automotive segment over their energy segment. Much of this will overlap across manufactures or might be negligibly different. Tesla has the benefit of receiving subsidies to boost sales/price, and they have carbon tax credits to sell (2), which was about half of their profit. They sell direct without paying for advertising, so their costs are lower. They are vertically integrated, so there are less middle men to drive up the prices on their cars. For all of those reasons, they have matched the profit of Toyota with 8x less sales. Regardless of the how, I'm sure Toyota is probably considering how they can close the gap. If the government was to end subsidies and carbon credits then the gap would significantly close on how profitable Tesla is compared to Toyota, yet Tesla's profit per car might also grow from advancement in other sectors like the fact that they are building a lithium refining factory (3) and plan to mine lithium from Nevada. With the cost of lithium likely to explode even more, this could be critical to their success. As they said in their investor meeting, part of their advantage (besides vertical integration) is that they are able to negotiate cheap and long term contracts with suppliers of parts and materials because Tesla has committed to an EV future. Other manufactures have still not taken the plunge. Some are starting to invest in battery manufacturing, but most are dependent on third party suppliers providing a product for their cars, which means they are subject to the improvements in battery chemistry or production from those third party manufactures (similar idea to why Apple departed with Intel for better vertical integration and less dependency on third party development and production timelines). Tesla is continuing to innovate in car manufacturing, factory size/efficiency, material production, and so on. Everything is built on making the car cheaper and/or better from a first principles and material cost perspective. The gigafactories are turning into terafactories with a smaller footprint. The cars are built using giant castings in subsections that can have multiple robots/people performing tasks on the car at the same time to speed production and efficiency. They are aggressively working on reducing material cost and waste, and they are changing their cars so fast, it is hard to think of another manufacture being able to keep up. This all goes to money in their pocket and/or a price savings to the consumer.
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03-29-2023, 08:52 PM | #96 |
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Like anything else, evs will have to succeed on merit. Right now they're an alternative made more attractive by tax credits and woke dog whistling. 100k for an unproven electric truck with questionable range when actually used like a truck? Not there yet.
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03-29-2023, 10:29 PM | #97 | |
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(2), or exploitative/cheap labor (3) (4). Another perspective is that the government is investing into a future product and encouraging faster adoption because it is advantageous not to wait for adoption to occur over a longer timeline in a mature market. The S curve (5) for electric vehicle adoption is highly dependent on demand, but unlike the cellphone or the internet or the TV or radio before them, EVs aren't needed or significantly compelling to the average consumer yet, but in the interest of time, we don't really want to wait for EV adoption to occur naturally, as the effects of GHGs become ever more taxing to the average consumer, or when the rising price of non-renewable resources like oil pressure the market to evolve (6). Also, what type of trucks are you referring to because it was unclear what you meant by unproven? Tesla Semis are in operation (6), and there is no mystery how EV trucks will work in terms of range and towing ability; the physics is laid out on the forces needed to tow, the rate of heat production by the batteries/cooling needed, and the range that they will have based on the load. The infrastructure for charging is the biggest obstacle, but for manufacturers, most will be setting up their own charging networks at their distribution and receiving centers. As it pertains to EV personal trucks, well, 75% of truck owners tow 0-1 times per year, and 70% go off-road 0-1 per year, and 35% use the truck bed 0-1 times per year (7), so most truck owners will be fine with an EV truck, but tests have been done (8). Ultimately, towing distance is far less important to most truck owners, who rarely tow and tow for short distances, when most truck owners use their truck like a car and mostly like the perception that the truck can tow, haul, go off-road and is safe and rugged, which can be marketing points for EVs just like ICEs (9).
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03-30-2023, 12:54 AM | #98 | |
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