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Old 08-15-2022, 01:29 AM   #463
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Maybe those unnamed problems plaguing society to which you are referring to aren't as universal as global food and water shortages.
That errantly assumes those issues are caused by man rather than natural phenomena like, oh I don’t know, solar cycles. Or maybe irresponsible utilization of resources related to your identified issues. Food for clean ICE fuel, lawns and swimming pools in historically desert dominated geographies along with excessive population density. Focusing on such bogus climate issues takes away from perpetuating equality and, in fact, does exactly the opposite further driving wedges between the west and the have not populations not to mention the wealthy and poor populations of the west.
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Old 08-30-2022, 02:37 AM   #464
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That errantly assumes those issues are caused by man rather than natural phenomena like, oh I don’t know, solar cycles. Or maybe irresponsible utilization of resources related to your identified issues. Food for clean ICE fuel, lawns and swimming pools in historically desert dominated geographies along with excessive population density. Focusing on such bogus climate issues takes away from perpetuating equality and, in fact, does exactly the opposite further driving wedges between the west and the have not populations not to mention the wealthy and poor populations of the west.
It is caused by man. Unfortunately, the issues related to global warming will require resources that may or may not negatively impact developing countries, yet the projections for the potential damage to food and water resources, infrastructure damage and air quality from fires from global warming will be far worse, and what’s more, the need for innovation and action to transform energy networks and infrastructure has the potential to spur economic growth and create high quality jobs, so it is not all doom and gloom.

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4761980/

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The values in Table 1 clearly confirm that the total greenhouse gases (GHG), especially the CO2, are the main drivers of the changing global surface air temperature. The radiative forcing caused by aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions is also important, but significantly smaller (0.2 vs. 0.3 nat/ut). Neither solar irradiance nor volcanic forcing contributes in a significant manner to the long-term GMTA evolution. This is true in spite of short episodes of volcanic forcing that are clearly visible in the time series as they are of insufficient strength to make significant long-term contributions to the GMTA dynamics.
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Using the IF concept we were able to confirm the inherent one-way causality between human activities and global warming, as during the last 150 years the increasing anthropogenic radiative forcing is driving the increasing global temperature, a result that cannot be inferred from traditional time delayed correlation or ordinary least square regression analysis. Natural forcing (solar forcing and volcanic activities) contributes only marginally to the global temperature dynamics during the last 150 years. Human influence, especially via CO2 radiative forcing, has been detected to be significant since about the 1960s. This provides an independent statistical confirmation of the results from process based modelling studies.
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Old 08-30-2022, 06:53 AM   #465
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That errantly assumes those issues are caused by man
It is not an assumption; there seems to be a significant amount of research supporting anthropogenic climate change. That is, it is not a hypothesis, it is a medium to strong theory.

Btw, the "97% of scientist say..climate change" is bogus. It is commonly quoted but it is a contrived number.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexeps...h=3896eb413f9f
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/...cientists-say/

Disclaimer: I do not have the knowledge to agree or disagree with anthropogenic climate change and I suspect most people don't.
This means we are subject to listening to people who are experts. And don't read "experts" as someone who knows everything about a field of study and is never wrong. An expert is someone who is very knowledgeable in their field. Expert knowledge changes. Experts are fallible but they're the best we have.

I have mentioned before I have spoken to a professor of geology who disagrees with anthropogenic climate change (it is not his area of expertise) and I have to respect his position because he is significantly more knowledgeable than myself BUT he would be the first to acknowledge his viewpoint maybe wrong; he is a scientist and all positions can be challenged.

Axiom for the day: opinion shopping is not research.
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Old 08-30-2022, 07:07 AM   #466
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and action to transform energy networks and infrastructure has the potential to spur economic growth and create high quality jobs, so it is not all doom and gloom.
In the book "The Limits To Growth" published 1972 there were 5 variables (population, food production, industrialization, pollution, nonrenewable natural resources) and twelve scenarios put forward. The "Business as Usual" scenario is the one that most closely matches our current position.
There has been 2? 3? follow ups (The Limits to Growth Revisited, Limits and Beyond: 50 years on from The Limits to Growth, what did we learn and what’s next? and Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data ) and one of the continuing themes is running out of non renewable resources.

"Although this result does not necessarily indicate an
impending collapse, both scenarios display a halt in growth and subsequent decline in
industrial capital, agricultural output, and welfare within three decades. This suggests that
humanity is on a path to having limits imposed on itself, rather than consciously choosing
its own. "
From pdf from above link.
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Old 08-30-2022, 08:15 PM   #467
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China’s Record Drought Is Drying Rivers and Feeding Its Coal Habit
Dry weather in southwestern China has crippled huge hydroelectric dams, forcing cities to impose rolling blackouts and driving up the country’s use of coal.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/b...y-climate.html

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Car assembly plants and electronics factories in southwestern China have closed for lack of power. Owners of electric cars are waiting overnight at charging stations to recharge their vehicles. Rivers are so low there that ships can no longer carry supplies.

A record-setting drought and an 11-week heat wave are causing broad disruption in a region that depends on dams for more than three-quarters of its electricity generation. The factory shutdowns and logistical delays are hindering China’s efforts to revive its economy as the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, prepares to claim a third term in power this autumn.

The ruling Communist Party is already struggling to reverse a slowdown in China, the world’s second largest economy, caused by the country’s strict Covid lockdowns and a slumping real estate market. Young people are finding it hard to get jobs, while uncertainty over the economic outlook is compelling residents to save instead of spend, and to hold off on buying new homes.

Now, the extreme heat is adding to frustration by snarling power supplies, threatening crops and setting off wildfires. Reduced electricity from hydroelectric dams has prompted China to burn more coal, a large contributor to air pollution and to greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming.
Many cities around the country have been forced to impose rolling blackouts or limit energy use. In Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province, several neighborhoods went without electricity for more than 10 hours a day.

Vera Wang, a Chengdu resident, said that just to charge her electric car, her boyfriend waited in a long line overnight at a charging station that was only partly operating. It was 4 a.m. by the time he reached the front of the line.

“The line was so long that it extended from the underground parking lot to the road outside,” she said.

The heat wave has scorched China for more than two months, stretching from Sichuan in the southwest to the country’s eastern coast and sending the mercury above 104 degrees on many days. In Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in the southwest with around 20 million people, the temperature soared to 113 degrees last week, the first time such a high reading had been recorded in a Chinese city outside the western desert region of Xinjiang.
The searing heat set off wildfires in the mountains and forests on Chongqing’s outskirts, where thousands of firefighters and volunteers have worked to put out blazes. Residents said the air smelled of acrid smoke.

The drought has dried up dozens of rivers and reservoirs in the region and cut Sichuan’s hydropower generation capacity by half, hurting industrial production. Volkswagen closed its 6,000-employee factory in Chengdu for the past week and a half, and Toyota temporarily suspended operations at its assembly plant.

Foxconn, the giant Taiwanese electronics manufacturer, and CATL, the world’s largest maker of electric car batteries, have both curtailed production at factories in the vicinity.

In Ezhou, a city in central China near Wuhan, the Yangtze River is now at its lowest level for this time of year since record-keeping began there in 1865. People’s Daily, the main newspaper of the Communist Party, reported on Aug. 19 that the Yangtze River had fallen to the same average level it normally reaches at the end of the winter dry season.

But the disruptions from the hydropower shortfall are being felt far from the southwest, including in China’s eastern cities, which are buyers of hydropower. Some factories and commercial buildings in cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai are rationing electricity.

Kevin Ni, an online marketing worker in Hangzhou, said that his office was stifling because few air-conditioners were allowed to run.
“We have to eat ice pops and drink iced drinks,” he said. “I just put my hands on the ice pops, that cools me the most.”

The falling water levels in major rivers that serve the region’s main transport hubs have also led to delays elsewhere in the supply chain. The Yangtze River has receded so much that many oceangoing ships can no longer reach upstream ports. The upper Yangtze basin normally gets half its entire annual rainfall just in July and August, so the failure of this year’s rains may mean a long wait for more water.

That is forcing China to divert large numbers of trucks to carry their cargo. A single ship can require 500 or more trucks to move its cargo.

“We’re losing a few months of really efficient shipping,” said Even Rogers Pay, a food and agriculture analyst at Trivium, a Beijing consulting firm.

The heat wave and drought are also starting to drive food prices higher in China, especially for fruit and vegetables. Farmers’ fields and orchards are wilting. Sichuan is a leading grower in China of apples, plums and other fruit, and fruit trees that die could take five years to replace. The price of bok choy, a popular cabbage, has nearly doubled in Wuhan this month.

“That’s going to create more economic pain, which is the last thing the leadership wants to see,” Ms. Pay said.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and four other departments issued an emergency notice warning on Tuesday that the drought posed a “severe threat” to China’s autumn harvest. China’s cabinet on Wednesday approved $1.5 billion for disaster relief and assistance to rice farmers and another $1.5 billion for overall farm subsidies.

The government has urged local officials to seek out more water sources and allocate more electricity to support farmers and promote the planting of leafy vegetables, which are highly perishable, in big cities. Fire trucks have been used to spray water on fields and deliver water to pig farms.

The extreme weather sweeping across China also has potential implications for the world’s efforts to halt climate change. Beijing has sought to offset at least part of the lost hydropower from the drought by ramping up the use of coal-fired power plants. China’s domestic mining of coal has been at or near record levels, and customs data shows that its imports of coal from Russia reached a new high last month.

But China’s reliance on the fossil fuel raises questions about its commitment to slowing the growth of its carbon emissions.

“In the short term in China, the very, very painful realization is that only coal can serve as the base” for the electricity supply, said Ma Jun, the director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, a Beijing environmental group. Sichuan Province has lured energy-intensive industries like chemical manufacturing for many years with extremely low electricity prices, he said, and some of these industries have squandered power through inefficiency.

Mr. Ma struck an optimistic note, however, about the direction of China’s climate strategy, saying that in the medium term, “China is very committed to carbon targets and renewable energy.”

The government has sought to mitigate the effects of global warming on its economy. The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning ministry, set up a working group last winter to analyze the effects of climate change on water-related industries like hydroelectric dams.

While such efforts may help China preserve the viability of renewable energy programs, they may not prompt China to limit the burning of coal this year as a quick fix, said Ed Cunningham, the director of the Asia Energy and Sustainability Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School.

“They’re much more comfortable with coal,” Mr. Cunningham said, “and the reality is that when there’s a shortage of hydro, they use coal.”
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Old 08-31-2022, 01:07 AM   #468
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It is not an assumption; there seems to be a significant amount of research supporting anthropogenic climate change. That is, it is not a hypothesis, it is a medium to strong theory.

Btw, the "97% of scientist say..climate change" is bogus. It is commonly quoted but it is a contrived number.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexeps...h=3896eb413f9f
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/...cientists-say/

Disclaimer: I do not have the knowledge to agree or disagree with anthropogenic climate change and I suspect most people don't.
This means we are subject to listening to people who are experts. And don't read "experts" as someone who knows everything about a field of study and is never wrong. An expert is someone who is very knowledgeable in their field. Expert knowledge changes. Experts are fallible but they're the best we have.

I have mentioned before I have spoken to a professor of geology who disagrees with anthropogenic climate change (it is not his area of expertise) and I have to respect his position because he is significantly more knowledgeable than myself BUT he would be the first to acknowledge his viewpoint maybe wrong; he is a scientist and all positions can be challenged.

Axiom for the day: opinion shopping is not research.
Ok, then have said expert explain the warming after the ice age, warming that lead to the Viking expansion, cooling in the middle of the last century and other such events when man could not have been an influence. Or how Europe is finding lost historical structures as water levels recede. Clearly these water levels could not have been so low because of man’s influence. Climate change (assuming the current data isn’t being manipulated and it’s often proven it is) is a naturally occurring phenomenon outside of man’s influence. Climate change as it’s being discussed as all the rave is a political distraction, nothing more.
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Old 08-31-2022, 01:42 AM   #469
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Old 08-31-2022, 02:23 AM   #470
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Ok, then have said expert [1] explain the warming after the ice age, warming that lead to the Viking expansion, cooling in the middle of the last century and other such events when man could not have been an influence. Or how Europe is finding lost historical structures as water levels recede. Clearly these water levels could not have been so low because of man’s influence. Climate change (assuming the current data isn’t being manipulated and it’s often proven it is [2]) is a naturally occurring phenomenon [3] outside of man’s influence [4]. Climate change as it’s being discussed as all the rave is a political distraction [5], nothing more [6].
1/ Which expert?
The media often portrays scientist as wearing a white lab coat, working diligently over a microscope seeking the truth.
And this stereotype is often correct BUT scientists are human, prone to the very same frailties as everyone else. So we get some scientists who cherry pick data, submit publications to less than reputable journals, who cling on to their theories because they are emotionally invested in same.

But as I mention above experts are the best we have. Who else are we going to believe? Some random people on a forum who have spent 5 minutes on a search engine then calling themselves an expert?
How can a person tell if something is true or false if that person doesn't have knowledge in that field?
Story time. Two good acquaintances of mine were studying philosophy at university. One was doing her degree, the other his masters. I was there when they were discussing something philosophy. It was incomprehensible. I didn't have the knowledge to understand what they were saying.

This can be applied to any higher level of study.

2/ Two possibilities: it is being manipulated (see above point about human fallibility) OR new ways have been discovered of interpreting/presenting the same data. You say "it's often proven". How often, what about the data that isn't proven to be manipulated? Once a paper/study has been published it is open to scrutiny. How do you know the data has been manipulated? Because someone has studied the data and found it wanting.

3/ Given what I have read I don't think anyone is disputing climate doesn't change. But why can't there be climate change that is caused by a combination of naturally occurring and man made? I don't see any mutual exclusivity.

4/ Given the evidence of I read of (note what I said: read of, not "read") man, woman and non-gender specif people can change climate.

5/ Yes, there is political games being played and the democratic process is a shambles but that doesn't mean climate change is going away anytime soon.

6/ Capitalism and democracy are social constructs. There are alternatives (I am not saying they are viable alternatives, just that people have agreed to these institutions) but people cannot live without food, water or living in elevated temperatures.
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Old 08-31-2022, 08:50 AM   #471
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1/ Which expert?
The media often portrays scientist as wearing a white lab coat, working diligently over a microscope seeking the truth.
And this stereotype is often correct BUT scientists are human, prone to the very same frailties as everyone else. So we get some scientists who cherry pick data, submit publications to less than reputable journals, who cling on to their theories because they are emotionally invested in same.

But as I mention above experts are the best we have. Who else are we going to believe? Some random people on a forum who have spent 5 minutes on a search engine then calling themselves an expert?
How can a person tell if something is true or false if that person doesn't have knowledge in that field?
Story time. Two good acquaintances of mine were studying philosophy at university. One was doing her degree, the other his masters. I was there when they were discussing something philosophy. It was incomprehensible. I didn't have the knowledge to understand what they were saying.

This can be applied to any higher level of study.

2/ Two possibilities: it is being manipulated (see above point about human fallibility) OR new ways have been discovered of interpreting/presenting the same data. You say "it's often proven". How often, what about the data that isn't proven to be manipulated? Once a paper/study has been published it is open to scrutiny. How do you know the data has been manipulated? Because someone has studied the data and found it wanting.

3/ Given what I have read I don't think anyone is disputing climate doesn't change. But why can't there be climate change that is caused by a combination of naturally occurring and man made? I don't see any mutual exclusivity.

4/ Given the evidence of I read of (note what I said: read of, not "read") man, woman and non-gender specif people can change climate.

5/ Yes, there is political games being played and the democratic process is a shambles but that doesn't mean climate change is going away anytime soon.

6/ Capitalism and democracy are social constructs. There are alternatives (I am not saying they are viable alternatives, just that people have agreed to these institutions) but people cannot live without food, water or living in elevated temperatures.
That’s the thing and point everyone on this band wagon seem to be ignoring There is more than sufficient evidence to counter the claim that man is the cause. There is also plenty of evidence that those calling out the doom and gloom of man made climate change are simply drumming up ‘business’ to pay for their bogus jobs so they can keep piddling instead of finding an outlet that generates personal income sufficient to maintain their life style while also providing real value to society. They’re sucking grant money and taxes that could actually go to viable causes for man and the planet. For the record I am also networked with plenty of accomplished phd’d level individuals who can much better lay out support to my position. Some have to come to me for approval of their spending.
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Old 08-31-2022, 09:17 AM   #472
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For the record I am also networked with plenty of accomplished phd’d level individuals who can much better lay out support to my position. Some have to come to me for approval of their spending.
Is one of them Dr Chipmonk?
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Old 08-31-2022, 09:19 AM   #473
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There is more than sufficient evidence to counter the claim that man is the cause
But this is science. Theories are debated, analyzed, debunked, accepted, refuted.
Your statement "There is more than sufficient evidence" is unreferenced hyperbole. I could counter with an equally pointless statement "there is more than enough evidence to support man made climate change".

You make a lot of broad generalizations which do not encompass the whole field.
Take this example:"There is also plenty of evidence that those calling out the doom and gloom of man made climate change are simply drumming up ‘business’ to pay for their bogus jobs".
I do not doubt for a moment that some unknown percentage of climate activists are padding their jobs but this can be said of any field. My good wife works in HR and the stories she tells me of some employees makes me cringe.
See my comment above about human fallibilities but you can't extrapolate to say all employees are padding their jobs.

Would you care to link some sites explaining why the theory of anthropomorphic climate change is wrong?

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I am also networked with plenty of accomplished phd’d level individuals
I didn't doubt that for a moment.
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Old 08-31-2022, 09:21 AM   #474
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Is one of them Dr Chipmonk?
To the best of my knowledge Dr Chipmonk doesn't handle spending approvals. You would have to refer to Dr Spock.
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Old 08-31-2022, 09:21 AM   #475
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Is one of them Dr Chipmonk?

That statement has "Source: Trust me bro, I know people" written all over it. Just made me chuckle.
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Old 08-31-2022, 10:29 AM   #476
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But this is science. Theories are debated, analyzed, debunked, accepted, refuted.
Your statement "There is more than sufficient evidence" is unreferenced hyperbole. I could counter with an equally pointless statement "there is more than enough evidence to support man made climate change".
Isn't the real answer "There is more than enough evidence to show that the current interglacial stage of the existing Ice Age, combined with the increased contribution of industrialization to levels of CO2 in the environment are contributing factors to the current warming trend."?

Or, put another way, "No single raindrop blames itself for the flood"
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