|
Other Vehicles & General Automotive Discussions Discuss all other cars and automotive news here. |
|
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
06-11-2020, 12:27 PM | #29 |
1st86 Driver!
Join Date: Feb 2012
Drives: '13 FR-S (#3 of 1st 86)
Location: Powder Springs, GA
Posts: 19,811
Thanks: 38,817
Thanked 24,936 Times in 11,375 Posts
Mentioned: 182 Post(s)
Tagged: 4 Thread(s)
|
and Price = Sales. Right now, the cost of current levels of autonomy add substantially to the price of a lower end vehicle where the majority of sales are, and where there is a lot of sensitivity. You raise the price of the cars in the bottom 50% of the market, you eliminate new buyers who move to used, where autonomy isn't available, therefore driving full adoption further into the future. The average age of a vehicle registered in the US was 11.6 years in 2016 and growing (I've seen it reported as high as 11.8 years in 2019). That creates a very long transition period, and even longer if the manufacturer isn't the "responsible party" in an accident under full autonomy.
__________________
Visit my Owner's Journal where I wax philosophic on all things FR-S Post your 86 or see others in front of a(n) (in)famous landmark. What fits in your 86? Show us the "Junk In Your Trunk". |
The Following User Says Thank You to Dadhawk For This Useful Post: | why? (06-12-2020) |
06-11-2020, 01:26 PM | #30 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,883
Thanks: 5,668
Thanked 5,804 Times in 3,299 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
Certain levels of autonomy are not expensive. Even full autonomy doesn’t need to be expensive and definitely will be cheap in the future. Expensive stuff didn’t stop the mass adoption of more expensive things like automatic transmissions or SUVs, but level 5 autonomy is a few years away, yet you are right that mass adoption will take some time. Many things will influence that.
__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
|
06-11-2020, 02:44 PM | #31 | |
1st86 Driver!
Join Date: Feb 2012
Drives: '13 FR-S (#3 of 1st 86)
Location: Powder Springs, GA
Posts: 19,811
Thanks: 38,817
Thanked 24,936 Times in 11,375 Posts
Mentioned: 182 Post(s)
Tagged: 4 Thread(s)
|
Quote:
SUVs have also been around forever (the longest selling car moniker is "Suburban" after all) but I agree adoption rates grew exponentially in the last couple of decades after the minivan fell out of favor.
__________________
Visit my Owner's Journal where I wax philosophic on all things FR-S Post your 86 or see others in front of a(n) (in)famous landmark. What fits in your 86? Show us the "Junk In Your Trunk". |
|
The Following User Says Thank You to Dadhawk For This Useful Post: | why? (06-12-2020) |
06-11-2020, 03:25 PM | #32 | ||
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,883
Thanks: 5,668
Thanked 5,804 Times in 3,299 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
Quote:
My point was that expense hasn't stopped people from mass adopting something they want. The same argument can be said of paying for smart phones and more expensive data plans, cable TV, etc. Expense is a big factor, but there is nothing overtly expensive about autonomous capabilities. The cost is in developing the neural network, but that isn't inherently expensive either. https://fortune.com/2016/03/14/self-driving-car-honda/ https://automobiles.honda.com/sensing The S curve for mass adoption depends on the price, availability, etc for what you are defining. I'm not really concerned about trying to speculate about mass adoption. That will depend on interest, government regulation, price (but that is already cheap), public acceptance, etc. I'm more interesting in talking about when the technology will reach viability for full/level 5 autonomy. I think we are there already or within a year or two of being there. Quote:
Technically, self-driving tech has been in development in one form or another for almost as long as automobiles have been around, so it isn't like we need more time. We are there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car
__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
|
||
06-12-2020, 07:26 AM | #33 | ||
Only happy when it rains.
Join Date: Feb 2013
Drives: series.blue
Location: Harnett county NC
Posts: 1,995
Thanks: 5,698
Thanked 1,263 Times in 749 Posts
Mentioned: 25 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
Quote:
Because people don't want to pay that much money, and some people will never be able to drive. There is a gigantic difference in aptitudes needed for driving all across the USA. If you live in farm country in the middle of nowhere where there is absolutely nothing to hit, you don't need to drive as well as if you live in the middle of a city. Quote:
Even if it is technically possible in the next year, I doubt it would be legal. They have to prove it can do everything and not cause accidents. |
||
06-12-2020, 08:08 AM | #34 | |
1st86 Driver!
Join Date: Feb 2012
Drives: '13 FR-S (#3 of 1st 86)
Location: Powder Springs, GA
Posts: 19,811
Thanks: 38,817
Thanked 24,936 Times in 11,375 Posts
Mentioned: 182 Post(s)
Tagged: 4 Thread(s)
|
Quote:
__________________
Visit my Owner's Journal where I wax philosophic on all things FR-S Post your 86 or see others in front of a(n) (in)famous landmark. What fits in your 86? Show us the "Junk In Your Trunk". |
|
06-12-2020, 11:13 AM | #35 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Drives: '12 C63 P31, '23 GRC
Location: NC
Posts: 3,200
Thanks: 2,935
Thanked 2,072 Times in 1,185 Posts
Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
Good points above.
Also it's worth pointing out that building an SUV doesn't cost more than building a (similarly sized) sedan. If anything it costs less. But consumers are tricked into thinking they're a more premium product and thus pay more. If someone that's used to only driving around farm country can't handle driving in a big city...then don't. If its a big city they don't need their car anyway. This isn't rocket science. If you can't grasp basic properties of physics then you shouldn't drive. People are lazy. (also I'm not talking about handicapped or elderly)
__________________
Current: 2023 GRC Circuit Edition, 2012 C63 AMG P31
Past: (2) 2000 MR2 Spyder, 2017 GTI Sport, 2006 Porsche Cayman S, Supercharged 2013 BRZ-L, 2007 Honda S2000, 1992 Integra GS-R |
06-12-2020, 11:17 AM | #36 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Drives: BANNED FOR TELLING THE TRUTH
Location: MODS ARE ON A POWER TRIP
Posts: 3,447
Thanks: 7,830
Thanked 3,022 Times in 1,409 Posts
Mentioned: 38 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
|
If only there were some kind of transportation system where a large amount of people could be taken to common points throughout a city autonomously and safely. 🤔
|
06-12-2020, 11:48 AM | #37 |
TRACKBREAD
Join Date: Mar 2016
Drives: 2013 BRZ
Location: Florida
Posts: 3,929
Thanks: 2,660
Thanked 4,024 Times in 1,895 Posts
Mentioned: 30 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
|
06-12-2020, 02:40 PM | #38 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,883
Thanks: 5,668
Thanked 5,804 Times in 3,299 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
Quote:
Either way. We are pretty much at the testing phases for Level 5: https://www.traffictechnologytoday.c...r-journey.html You mean where someone takes the railway into the city then a taxi to the bus terminal then a bus to the epicenter then a taxi to the destination? Crap. How do I carry this Ikea cabinet and lamp back?
__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
|
|
06-17-2020, 04:15 PM | #39 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2019
Drives: 86 (sold), 370Z
Location: Australia
Posts: 480
Thanks: 781
Thanked 599 Times in 299 Posts
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
|
06-17-2020, 04:30 PM | #40 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2019
Drives: 86 (sold), 370Z
Location: Australia
Posts: 480
Thanks: 781
Thanked 599 Times in 299 Posts
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
One thing to bear in mind is that the purchasing power and infrastructure to implement fully autonomous vehicles around the entire world is likely much further away than the leading edge of the tech in select wealthy countries. IOW, even if Tesla and others develop fully autonomous vehices fairly rapidly, most of the millions of new cars sold around the world each year will continue to be human operated for basic economic and logistical reasons. And even after the majority of new vehicles sold in, say, the USA or EU are fully autonomous, it may be a few more decades after that before the same is true throughout developing countries.
IOW, I think the autonomous vehicle revolution will be a very slow burn, rather than a rapid changeover. And that suits me fine - I enjoy driving, even if it is just a trip to the shops. Admittedly, it’s mostly fun because I prefer sportscars. If I could only drive boring SUV people movers, then it loses some of the appeal. |
The Following User Says Thank You to Red-86 For This Useful Post: | Dadhawk (06-22-2020) |
06-19-2020, 10:08 PM | #41 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,883
Thanks: 5,668
Thanked 5,804 Times in 3,299 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
Quote:
Society might see a greater cost savings to go autonomous. Healthcare costs could go down from fewer accidents. Insurance rates could drop. Damage to streets, trees, poles, etc would go down. People would be more productive instead of living with long term disabilities. Less people would need to be prosecuted for DUIs. Police duties would decline. Most people would love to commute to work or home with the ability to nap, to talk to family, or to catch up on social media, work, emails, etc, and now they would. Businesses could benefit from not having to pay truckers and from running the trucks more often. Deliveries of all types could arrive in super small cars (smaller than Smart cars or old Minis). Taxis could be summoned and cheaper. Cars could be made without steering wheels, without traditional readouts and without pedals. Cars could be constructed with completely different shapes and interiors like seats that don't face forward. The technology would be very disruptive.
__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
|
|
06-23-2020, 01:49 PM | #42 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Drives: '12 C63 P31, '23 GRC
Location: NC
Posts: 3,200
Thanks: 2,935
Thanked 2,072 Times in 1,185 Posts
Mentioned: 19 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
|
Plenty of other countries have succeeded...
__________________
Current: 2023 GRC Circuit Edition, 2012 C63 AMG P31
Past: (2) 2000 MR2 Spyder, 2017 GTI Sport, 2006 Porsche Cayman S, Supercharged 2013 BRZ-L, 2007 Honda S2000, 1992 Integra GS-R |
|
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
the struggle is real.... | Victorscp | BRZ First-Gen (2012+) -- General Topics | 44 | 12-22-2018 11:36 AM |
Best way to eliminate the torque dip | WWFT86 | Engine, Exhaust, Transmission | 60 | 06-01-2017 02:55 PM |
The struggle is real... | iLaw | CANADA | 13 | 12-14-2014 06:10 PM |
Cheapest way to eliminate the torque dip | allawd | Engine, Exhaust, Transmission | 42 | 04-24-2013 09:40 PM |
I can reproduce the struggle-to-start issue | chenshuo | Issues | Warranty | Recalls / TSB | 19 | 04-17-2013 02:42 PM |