Random Thoughts - Part Deux [NO POLITICS]

[p1l0t]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Well all true if your news source is Facebook

Is there really a GOOD news source anymore though? Maybe in Canada...

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[Spuds]

Originally Posted by p1l0t

Is there really a GOOD news source anymore though? Maybe in Canada...

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

Oddly enough, my preferred organizations for news about the larger happenings in the US are not US-based...

[Ultramaroon]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Oddly enough, my preferred organizations for news about the larger happenings in the US are not US-based...

[NoHaveMSG]

Nothing like a panic'd phone call from a customer at 6am, all because the UPS tracking website hadn't updated yet

[Spuds]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

Nothing like a panic'd phone call from a customer at 6am, all because the UPS tracking website hadn't updated yet

Sounds like my mother-in-law...

[nextcar]

Why is it that whenever my wife starts a conversation by saying:

"I'm not crazy, but..."

I inevitably think "oh god... that is bat-shit crazy" about what she says...

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Sounds like my mother-in-law...

Needy customers seem to have a lot in common with mother-in-laws

I ran into work to grab the tracking number off my UPS machine. Called and they verified that the package would deliver today. I call the guy back and I get the, "what if it doesn't?" So I made a wiring diagram for him to bypass the remote system and just as I am sending it to him he texts me a picture of the package that had just arrived

[daiheadjai]

Originally Posted by serialk11r

It validates the concept of redundancy and state subsidies to that end for critical goods, IMO.

Diversification doesn't do much when everything is connected. People think bonds are a diversification from stocks...except they both go up in response to monetary stimulus, and they both crash in a credit crisis. The two move in the same direction when things are REALLY bad, which is when you really need that diversification. (more accurately speaking, rate sensitivity aka long term debt has that problem) People think some stocks are safer than others, but again they all crash together and go up together on many days.

Same with diversifying suppliers. Isolates you from some risks, but chances are those suppliers are sharing some risk factors.

If you have an independent vertically integrated copy, then that is true isolation from outside events, but knock-on effects could still take your own business out since the economy is all connected at some level. Even North Korea imports oil.

The trade war results follow the same logic.

So what you're saying is, we're boned either way?

[Kiske]

Originally Posted by nextcar

Why is it that whenever my wife starts a conversation by saying:

"I'm not crazy, but..."

I inevitably think "oh god... that is bat-shit crazy" about what she says...

I take anything I hear before the 'but' in a sentence and disregarded it as bullshit.


I like you, but...

It looks pretty good, but...

The customer is always right, but...

[humfrz]

Originally Posted by daiheadjai

So what you're saying is, we're boned either way?

No - just shut the drawer and forget about it -


humfrz

[Spuds]

Originally Posted by Kiske

I take anything I hear before the 'but' in a sentence and disregarded it as bullshit.


I like you, but...

It looks pretty good, but...

The customer is always right, but...

That's just plain stupid, but interesting and different.

Did I insult or complement your above thought?

[Kiske]

If anything the part before the but sets the tone for the response of whom your talking with.

[serialk11r]

Originally Posted by daiheadjai

So what you're saying is, we're boned either way?

Correct. The globalized economy is not just about cheaper labor, it's also about efficiency. E.g. all the electronics manufacturing geographically close together in Asia makes R&D faster and reduces total shipping costs incurred by all the parts. Trade results in greater economic output, but also specialization in competitive advantages.

Unfortunately that also means that a disruption to the system means there is much less redundancy to fall back on. If everyone were like North Korea (juche) and produced everything they needed domestically, the economy would be much less productive but countries would be more insulated to events elsewhere in the world.

As you're seeing right now, Japan and South Korea are in trouble and there's probably a crisis pending in California as well. You could bring all the factories in China back online, but many companies there have dependency on Korean and Japanese parts which is going to be a problem.

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by serialk11r

Correct. The globalized economy is not just about cheaper labor, it's also about efficiency. E.g. all the electronics manufacturing geographically close together in Asia makes R&D faster and reduces total shipping costs incurred by all the parts. Trade results in greater economic output, but also specialization in competitive advantages.

Unfortunately that also means that a disruption to the system means there is much less redundancy to fall back on. If everyone were like North Korea (juche) and produced everything they needed domestically, the economy would be much less productive but countries would be more insulated to events elsewhere in the world.

We learned a lot back when the west coast longshoremen went on strike in.... 2015 was it? That was an eff'in mess and took us the rest of the year to catch up and recover. There is no making yourself immune to it but we have taken a lot of steps to reduce our risk if there is a global issue.