New 2022 BRZ - Italian approach....

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by pallen

Once they get self-driving EVs, a lot of folks wont even own a car - you'll just pay driverless Uber or some other car service.

That may make sense in city and maybe some close in urban areas, but it doesn't work in a great swatch of the US in between the coasts, or even in rural Georgia for that matter.

Even there, where are all these "self-driving" cars going to park when not moving? Also, the traffic will actually increase as what were one-way trips now become two way (car summoned, it drives to the house then drives to the destination).

I guess we'll see how the testing for the new version of Tesla's FSD goes now that it was been released to beta. And don't even get me started on whether or not I think Tesla has a right to make me an unwilling participant in their beta tests.

[pallen]

Oh that’s definitely a urban/suburban scenario, but that’s the vast majority of the US population. Rural areas will still need their own cars, farm trucks, etc.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by pallen

Oh that’s definitely a urban/suburban scenario, but that’s the vast majority of the US population. Rural areas will still need their own cars, farm trucks, etc.

That's a hard one though.

Just because you live in a defined "urban" area doesn't mean you live in a major city. If you look at this, basically any place that has a fairly dense population density is considered "urban".

Zoom in on Atlanta. I work in the area identified as Atlanta Metro (Carroll County to the SW). That entire area is, for the most part rural or farmland. The folks that work with me typically own 4 to 5 acres of land, and some as much as 50. Yet, they are considered "urban" by statistics.

Even where I live, which is in the orange urbanized area between Carrollton and Marietta, the population is dense only in spots, mostly farms turned into suburb developments and it is long distances between areas. The closest grocery store to my house is two miles. The closest shopping center is 5 miles, and the closest hospital is 15 miles. You would spend a fortune on Uber unless the pricing model changes under FSD.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

The closest shopping center is 5 miles, and the closest hospital is 15 miles. You would spend a fortune on Uber unless the pricing model changes under FSD.

That is only if you use our old school "need to go shopping" mindset. That is rapidly changing as well. I have a coworker that has not set foot in a store in 2 years. Everything he buys including his weekly groceries is ordered online.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

That is only if you use our old school "need to go shopping" mindset. That is rapidly changing as well. I have a coworker that has not set foot in a store in 2 years. Everything he buys including his weekly groceries is ordered online.

Shopping Center was probably a bad example, but it just shows distances in general. We do about 80% of your shopping online, including grocery. Of that, I would say 50% is stuff we wouldn't have bothered with if we had had to go to the store. Catch-22.

[pallen]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

That's a hard one though.

Just because you live in a defined "urban" area doesn't mean you live in a major city. If you look at this, basically any place that has a fairly dense population density is considered "urban".

The market will work that out. They will start in the most dense urban areas where parking and traffic are issues, then expand from there. Eventually they will hit areas where people don’t use the service because it just doesn’t make sense there and the expansion will stop.

[Stonehorsw]

There was a projection of about 70% of financially active people will leave in 11 cities by 2035 (maybe 2059, memory fails)

It may be feasible in this case.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Stonehorsw

There was a projection of about 70% of financially active people will leave in 11 cities by 2035 (maybe 2059, memory fails)

It may be feasible in this case.

What 11 cities are they leaving? Doesn't sound good at all.

[Stonehorsw]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

What 11 cities are they leaving? Doesn't sound good at all.

I don’t recall exactly. Tokio, Beijing, Shanghai, Istambul, Moscow, Mumbai, Dehli, Sao Paulo, New York, London, Mexico city, I would guess.

But those long term predictions are hardly accurate, they mean to provide a direction, as you know better.

With covid, shared driving was impacted, and long term impact is yet to be seen.