New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by alex87f

You're assuming all Teslas use Autopilot. To compare the fatal accident rate, you have to add all non-Autopilot related deaths in Tesla vehicules.

The other solution would be comparing the fatal injury rate on a per-mile basis, but we're missing the AP-travelled miles.

Another interesting point is that the accident rate per vehicle in the US is almost twice that of France (0.0076%). Probably a combination of harsher inspections, driving education, lower driven miles and better infrastructure.

Tesla provides that data, and their numbers suggest Autopilot has a much lower rate of accidents than Teslas that don't have Autopilot engaged. The argument has been made that most accidents happen off-highways than on highways, and Autopilot is mostly engaged on highways, so this makes Autopilot look especially good, except, as I stated, the fatality rate per accident is higher on highway due to the speeds, even if more accidents happen off-highway and more total deaths happen off-highway.

I agree with Dadhawk that there are too many variables and not enough data to draw conclusive conclusions, but as I have said before addressing this same topic in the past, it is hard to go from Autopilot looking like it is 10x safer to being magnitudes deadlier like the articles suggest; it is more likely it is just less than 10x safer.

[Lantanafrs2]

Hydrogen over electric for motorcycles?
https://www.cyclenews.com/2023/06/ar...tted-column-6/

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

Hydrogen over electric for motorcycles?
https://www.cyclenews.com/2023/06/ar...tted-column-6/

I think synthetic fuels make sense for motorcycles because most people are fair weather riders and don't put many miles on their bikes, so even if e-fuels are $20-30/gal, it won't be nearly the same dent in a person's wallet, as e-fuels for your average commuter driving 12k-15k/year. I just don't know if e-fuels for high end exotics and motorcycles will be easily accessible in a future without gas stations on every corner. If we have a little less than 300 million cars and 10 million bikes in the US then we could expect gas stations to drop by a factor of 30 or so. In Santa Rosa, we have 44 gas stations, so that means we would be left with 1-2 e-fuel stations perhaps, just doing some very rough math. That might be all fine and dandy, but those Ferraris and bikes come out when the weather is nice, and then they get stored for the winters, very often. Between COVID and nursing school, I haven't been on my Ducati for three years. What happens to a business when no one shows up consistently during the winter?

There are motorcycles with decent speed and range, which could work for a short trip/loop, a commuter or for a ride with a midway stop for lunch, as we typically do. I think we will see motorcycles being more feasible if they were to eventually shift to solid state batteries, which could be 2-3 times as energy dense. Also, motorcycles would be the ideal candidates for battery swapping. Someone could literally slide out battery packs themselves and put new ones in. This is the way to go for motorsports or for someone who needs a quick recharge like how I swap batteries on my power tools when one runs dry.

https://www.makeuseof.com/fastest-el...cles-for-sale/

[Lantanafrs2]

^why did covid stop you from riding a motorcycle?

[Dadhawk]

I've considered buying an EV bike but if you do any serious riding the range isn't there, similar to what @Irace86.2.0 eludes too. Those that have a decent range (like the Zero SR/S @ 227 miles) are the wrong type bike for me (I'm all cruising or tour, most are not that) and are too tall.

Hydrogen (although I'm an OG on Team Hydrogen) just doesn't make sense any longer because there is no focus on infrastructure. If they start working on it where it makes most sense (trucking and other long haul transportation) then maybe the infrastructure would develop but that doesn't seem likely.

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I've considered buying an BEV bike but if you do any serious riding the range isn't there, similar to what @Irace86.2.0 eludes too. Those that have a decent range (like the Zero SR/S @ 227 miles) are the wrong type bike for me (I'm all cruising or tour, most are not that) and are too tall.

Hydrogen (although I'm an OG on Team Hydrogen) just doesn't make sense any longer because there is no focus on infrastructure. If they start working on it where it makes most sense (trucking and other long haul transportation) then maybe the infrastructure would develop but that doesn't seem likely.

I never paid much attention to hydrogen but bike manufacturers seem to be serious about it. We shall see.....

[Sasquachulator]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

I never paid much attention to hydrogen but bike manufacturers seem to be serious about it. We shall see.....

I dont think it'll gain much traction beyond NICHE level unless someone is willing to spend the gobs of money utilizing the extraction process (which i hear is very energy hungry and not very efficient) and building up the infrastructure (which as far as i know only big oil companies can afford to take the hit and they only build it out if they feel like it). Up here in Canada the only hydrogen fueling stations are in BC and maybe some parts of Quebec, nowhere else (and even then its only like 10-15 stations spread out in the large urban centres). Alberta wants to become a hydrogen supplier (somewhat of a natural transition away from oil/gas, as those would be large sources of hydrogen) so i think there could be a few stations opening up here in the near future.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

^why did covid stop you from riding a motorcycle?

I ride in groups and solo, so the group thing went out when COVID hit because of dining restrictions and lockdowns, as we would typically stop half way to eat lunch. We just never really got into making group plans. I work in the ED, so some people were weary about hanging out together for those moments when we were likely not to be riding or social distancing. In light of what the ED was going through, I thought high risk behavior wasn't all too wise either, solo or group. Staff in the hospital tended to look down on people who were engaged in high risk activities when the hospital systems were heavily impacted and often at zero capacity for ICU beds or any beds. I just never got motivated between to take the bike out. That, and my bike had been trapped in a single car garage behind a car that was immobile at multiple points over the last few years when the engine blew 4/21, and I did a K24 swap. Currently the battery is dead, and I need to charge it before I get it on the road finally now that I am done with nursing school and have some free time.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

I never paid much attention to hydrogen but bike manufacturers seem to be serious about it. We shall see.....

Hydrogen fuel cells can convert hydrogen into power or range at about twice the efficiency of ICEs running on hydrogen. The big problem with hydrogen ICEs is storage of compressed hydrogen. There will likely be less range than with a EV bike, as Jason mentions in the video below.

The better source of hydrogen would be ammonia because it is a stable liquid at room temperature. It is 95% more efficient to extract hydrogen from ammonia than from the electrolysis of water, so ammonia would be better, but by weight, hydrogen is 17% of ammonia. My Ducati Monster has a 15L gas tank, which is 15kg, so 17% of that would be 2.55kg of H2. As you can see, 2.55kg of ammonia is able to fit in a much tighter space than the compressed hydrogen. My Ducati gets anywhere from 43mpg at cruising to less than 25mpg when racing through the canyons. This would give a motorcycle with a 43mpg economy a mpkg range of 114 miles according to Jason's math. There would need to be hydrolysis systems on the motorcycle, and that process would consume energy, unless it could be sourced from the exhaust gases. The engineers pursuing this not only have engineering constraints, but infrastructure constraints.

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Hydrogen fuel cells can convert hydrogen into power or range at about twice the efficiency of ICEs running on hydrogen. The big problem with hydrogen ICEs is storage of compressed hydrogen. There will likely be less range than with a EV bike, as Jason mentions in the video below.

The better source of hydrogen would be ammonia because it is a stable liquid at room temperature. It is 95% more efficient to extract hydrogen from ammonia than from the electrolysis of water, so ammonia would be better, but by weight, hydrogen is 17% of ammonia. My Ducati Monster has a 15L gas tank, which is 15kg, so 17% of that would be 2.55kg of H2. As you can see, 2.55kg of ammonia is able to fit in a much tighter space than the compressed hydrogen. My Ducati gets anywhere from 43mpg at cruising to less than 25mpg when racing through the canyons. This would give a motorcycle with a 43mpg economy a mpkg range of 114 miles according to Jason's math. There would need to be hydrolysis systems on the motorcycle, and that process would consume energy, unless it could be sourced from the exhaust gases. The engineers pursuing this not only have engineering constraints, but infrastructure constraints.

I have a feeling that oem engineers may know more than a YouTube content creator

[bcj]

Had tanks of ammonia at the plant for developing blueprints going on decades.
Massive safety and compliance training for anyone allowed to approach the vicinity.
Similar to cryogenic materials we had big tanks of too. Safe to use under strictly controlled circumstances, until ...
Think mustard gas or sarin levels of carnage.
300 ppm over a period of 30 minutes gets you a Safety & 'Elf notation and a trip to the casualty dept.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by bcj

Had tanks of ammonia at the plant for developing blueprints going on decades.
Massive safety and compliance training for anyone allowed to approach the vicinity.
Similar to cryogenic materials we had big tanks of too. Safe to use under strictly controlled circumstances, until ...
Think mustard gas or sarin levels of carnage.
300 ppm over a period of 30 minutes gets you a Safety & 'Elf notation and a trip to the casualty dept.

Yeah, nasty stuff. Most commercial ammonia is ammonia hydroxide at 30% mixed with water, so yes, it would be something pungent at 100% for a fuel source. It is expensive too, so it seems far more reasonable to make synthetic fuels from green energy and carbon capture than trying to make cars run on ammonia unless economies of scale change things. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see a way for hydrogen ICEs being a thing, even on motorcycles.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

I have a feeling that oem engineers may know more than a YouTube content creator

Probably, but he is a mechanical engineer. He isn't naive or a novice. I'm sure there are very smart people working on hydrogen ICEs, but unfortunately there are limits to the physics. Also, a lot of what he took from those videos are from the manufactures own words like in regards to the liquid hydrogen BMW.

If ethanol and other biofuels can be made from green energy in renewable ways, for low-volume, low-use cars and motorcycles, it seems like that is the way to go for them.

Hydrogen fuel cell EVs are more efficient at converting hydrogen to motion than hydrogen ICEs, yet they have a storage problem with hydrogen tanks, so ICEs are just going to be worse. The physics of that can't really change.

[Arthur-A]

"eVs ArE gOoD fOr ThE eNvIrOnMeNt"