New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by dpfarr

What are you even talking about? Even in a week of prolonged 105° with high night temperatures there were not rolling blackouts.

The economy of energy production matters. A power plant using ff to generate electricity isn’t equivalent to the x number of vehicles making the same power.

It is a joke, relax. CA used to be known for brown outs, things seem better now then they used to be.

[mav1178]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

The big thing with hydrogen is that we burn natural gas to make it, so it isn’t green. Hydrolysis would be nice, but it isn’t there yet and has some issues. Plus, for hydrogen, it is inherently wasteful because it is an intermediary. If we had excess nuclear or something then we could use the excess energy for hydrogen, but without that, it would be better to eliminate the intermediate step and waste and just use electricity. And there can be a lot of waste in transporting hydrogen, in building hydrogen fuel stations, in building hydrogen production facilities, and in the end, EVs just seem simpler. I’m sure hydrogen will be there, but it just doesn’t seem like hydrogen is the fast solution. It is more of a long term solution to fill all gaps that EVs couldn’t fill or couldn’t fill well.

Recharging is already capable of adding enough range, and it will only get faster. Tesla’s version 3 superchargers can add 75 miles in 5 minutes. Lucid says they can add 300 miles in 20 minutes on their new car. Where will it be in fifteen years? If we have self-driving cars then what is another 20 minutes at an automated charging station on that cross country road trip when you are watching your movie or playing your VR game or sleeping in your car during the process?

Try comparing the Mirai to a Model 3. I don’t see a compelling reason to be excited about the Mirai, but I like your enthusiasm.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/insidee...ota-mirai/amp/

I did a focus group on the Mirai back in February. Refueling takes about 5-10 minutes, and one tank is upwards of 500+ miles now. In that same group, I sat in a Mirai next to a Model 3, and several other pure EV/Fuel Cell cars, and that only got me more excited.

The big cost inhibitor is the carbon fiber tank used to house the hydrogen gas, currently it’s over $10k to manufacture.

My goal for the future is to have EV and fuel cell vehicles have hot swappable battery or fuel units, this way you can swap it out as you go and it greatly reduces any refuel/charge time.

As for the economies of fuel cell, I am hoping there would be standalone solar or wind farms that can produce hydrogen without being a drag on the regular power grid. Even trying to harness tidal power will be a huge thing offshore, and may be magnitudes safer than drilling for oil.

[dpfarr]

Unfortunately my vanity exceeds my conscience. First gen Mirai are super cheap now. Never understood why companies feel they can make these cars with the most hideous exterior possible. At least the new Mirai looks close to a normal current body style.

[Sasquachulator]

Originally Posted by dpfarr

Unfortunately my vanity exceeds my conscience. First gen Mirai are super cheap now. Never understood why companies feel they can make these cars with the most hideous exterior possible. At least the new Mirai looks close to a normal current body style.

Theres a word that the new Mirai was a reworked cancelled next gen Lexus GS project. Dunno how true that is but it does have some merit based on what the new car has:

Mirai is all of a sudden RWD and looks substantially better than the wierd prius-like design of the older car, the interior has some aspects of the Lexus design language in it (the entire gauge cluster binnacle looks like its lifted from the current generation of Lexus interiors), and its far more upscale and normal looking compared to the outgoing Mirai, and i think its on the TNGA RWD platform (Not sure which one...maybe the same one used on the Toyota Crown)

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Sasquachulator

My EV of choice is the VW ID.Buzz (the EV hippy van revival), whenever they get around to building it.

I'm tempted to put money down on the upcoming eHummer just for the irony of it. It makes me smile.

[JesseG]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

We could do a program like cash for clunkers, but the fact is that the average age of cars on the road is 12 years, which is 2008 +/- and that means that the vast majority of the cars on the road are OBD2, and this means that they likely pass or don’t pass. Average fuel economy of new vehicles has improved since then, but buying habits might not reflect better fuel economy. EVs take the rating and greatly improve it, so I think they are better off with a state mandate, especially since Trump rolled back Obama’s fuel economy mandates. It will result in the biggest change the fastest.

An EV can be potentially cheaper to own when all expenses are included and metrics are equal, and when $25k EVs hit the market, the case for the EV for most drivers will be obvious. Don’t forget about the used car market for EVs. Used EVs will be cheaper and a compelling option. They offer reliability even at high mileage, and with over-the-air updates, they could be a good option.

A program with incentives to trade in an older car and replace it with a low emissions car could work. It helped EV sales when there were incentives and tax breaks. I think hybrids and plug in hybrids should also be a big part of the equation. It just makes sense, and it seems like the best way to reduce fossil fuel consumption gradually. And a bonus with hybrids is the battery technology is already there and we know it’s safe. With EV’s pushing the limits of battery technology, it is a little concerning about how safe that will be. I’m not an expert at all about battery tech beyond what I know from R/C cars But I do know the more power in a cell the more unstable it can be.
I’m completely in favor of EV’s and all the benefits they have. When I’m sitting in line at my daughter’s school I’m jealous of the Tesla drivers that don’t have an engine idling and burning fuel. Same with heavy traffic. An EV would be awesome to commute with. Plus I think Tesla is a kick a** American company. It’s incredible what they have done in a relatively short amount of time to further EV tech.


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[JesseG]

Originally Posted by dpfarr

Unfortunately my vanity exceeds my conscience. First gen Mirai are super cheap now. Never understood why companies feel they can make these cars with the most hideous exterior possible. At least the new Mirai looks close to a normal current body style.

I agree the Mirai is not a looker
I think some of it has to do with making a slippery fuel efficient shape. It’s why the Prius looks so goofy. The other part of it is probably for marketing when you are rolling out something new. Like “hey look at me I’m new and different!!” Then eventually common sense prevails and the tech is put in something more pleasing to the eye. Props to Toyota though for keeping the teardrop shape of the Prius. The first gen Prius didn’t get much buzz, and I wonder how much of that was due to its normal appearance.


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[mav1178]

Originally Posted by Sasquachulator

Theres a word that the new Mirai was a reworked cancelled next gen Lexus GS project. Dunno how true that is but it does have some merit based on what the new car has:

Mirai is all of a sudden RWD and looks substantially better than the wierd prius-like design of the older car, the interior has some aspects of the Lexus design language in it (the entire gauge cluster binnacle looks like its lifted from the current generation of Lexus interiors), and its far more upscale and normal looking compared to the outgoing Mirai, and i think its on the TNGA RWD platform (Not sure which one...maybe the same one used on the Toyota Crown)

Probably true.

Sitting in the new Mirai back in February and being about to actually see the car, the first thing that comes to mind is the weird long body/wheelbase, and IS-type tiny rear seats.

The cockpit definitely was designed with a luxury GT car in mind, the only thing I did not see was the trunk because I am supposed to be "unbiased" for purposes of the study and I can't pretend I am unbiased if I want to look everywhere under one car.

Compared to the current generation GS I would say that the platform may be a cancelled project, but everything between and above the strut towers is reworked for a fuel cell car. Just my observation.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Spuds

When do you think somebody will actually make a $25k ev? What percentage of the population do you think can afford a $25k ev? And how long will a $25k ev take to depreciate to the point where everyone that needs a car can afford one?

Within five years.


A large percentage when the cost of ownership over 15 years means it is as cheap as a $15-20k car. Three to five years later that used $25k car is even more affordable, but will last forever.


Depreciation is different at different times. Right now Teslas hold their value very well, but used BMW I3s don't, so it isn't hard to get a used i3 for sub $15k. Realistically, once the market is saturated with EVs, they should depreciate at a similar rate with some depreciating more than others for a variety of reasons. What is a price everyone can afford? I don't know. Depending on the mileage, I'm sure in five to ten years the average price would be sub $10k. In an EV world, cheap transportation from driverless taxis might make many people reconsider owning a car, especially if they are in a city, but yea.


The market should have a good chunk of used EVs before the 15 year EO takes effect on knew vehicles, but it will likely be a little longer before the used market is large.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Spuds

I just don't want to have to haul a small moon around whenever I go somewhere. Batteries are way too heavy for the range you get. When you start talking about 3200lb miatas you know there is a problem.

A RWD Model 3 weighs around 3500lbs. Just saying, it isn't terrible compared to the competition. It will likely just get better.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by JesseG

A program with incentives to trade in an older car and replace it with a low emissions car could work.

I don't disagree it might work, but I'm not a big fan of these type of subsidies and tax credits. It may be for the "common good" but really just increases the deficit. Now if there was full tax reform or a balanced budget amendment tied to it, I'm all for it.

Also, it only benefits those that can afford new cars anyway. It doesn't really make the car suddenly affordable for someone who otherwise could only afford a very used car.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I don't disagree it might work, but I'm not a big fan of these type of subsidies and tax credits. It may be for the "common good" but really just increases the deficit. Now if there was full tax reform or a balanced budget amendment tied to it, I'm all for it.

Also, it only benefits those that can afford new cars anyway. It doesn't really make the car suddenly affordable for someone who otherwise could only afford a very used car.

Better than subsidizing EV early adopters; like rich people buying a $100k Model S really doesn’t need a $10k rebate from the tax payers.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Spuds

When do you think somebody will actually make a $25k ev? What percentage of the population do you think can afford a $25k ev? And how long will a $25k ev take to depreciate to the point where everyone that needs a car can afford one?

Someone already does (or rather did). The Chevy Spark EV was $25,000 before incentives with a tested range just shy of 100 miles.

There are i3s right now on Carvana for under $15,000 with minimal miles and Bolts starting around $17K. The Bolt is actually tempting to me because it has decent range.

Least expensive Tesla is a 2013 Model S with 100K miles at $31K. That's actually better than I thought at almost 50% depreciation. I figured they would hold their price better than that.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Better than subsidizing EV early adopters; like rich people buying a $100k Model S really doesn’t need a $10k rebate from the tax payers.

I agree, and pretty much what I said.