COVID Developments and News

[AnalogMan]

The previous "Vacci-nation' thread was, understandably and reasonably, closed because it became a cesspool of political mud-slinging. That's a shame.

This is a car forum, not FaceBook. We all (mostly) come here because of our shared interest in the BRZ/86, and cars in general. If someone is really interested in being informed about important developments regarding COVID19 and the pandemic, they should probably be using something else as their primary source of information.

That said, there have been some important scientific findings recently. It might be interesting to some to share factual information (not personal political views) to then further follow up in more detail elsewhere.

To that end, if this thread is allowed to stand (and can remain above being dragged down into partisan mud), here are a few recent major developments that may have bearing on our personal health.

mRNA vaccines have reduced effectiveness against the Delta variant

Recent clinical data from Israel show that several months after vaccination, the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant is reduced to about 40% in preventing infection and symptomatic illness, compared with about 95% in newly vaccinated against the original SARS-CoV-2 strain, and 80-88% in newly vaccinated against Delta:

https://www.ynetnews.com/health_scie...icle/s19okqv0u

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

The Moderna vaccine is very similar to Pfizer's, and presumably would have very similar effects.

The Pfizer vaccine remains highly effective in preventing serious illness or hospitalization (about 90%) and thus remains a critically important tool in reducing complications, and deaths. But the reduced effectiveness against Delta shows that vaccination alone will not be enough. Other public health measures will be needed if infections and deaths are to be reduced.

Vaccinated individuals may be as contagious as unvaccinated

Studies both by the CDC of the outbreak in Provincetown MA, and the University of Wisconsin, both show that infected vaccinated individuals have similar viral loads to the unvaccinated.

https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.c...f75165.#page=1

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

This also implies that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals can transmit infection:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....full.pdf+html

Need for booster shots

Pfizer presented some data (buried in this presentation) showing that a third dose of their vaccine can increase antibody levels 5-fold in those 18-55, and 11-fold in those 65-85. They estimate a 100-fold increase in Delta neutralization after a third dose:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/file...arts-FINAL.pdf

As a result, several countries have now started administering third, booster doses of vaccine, starting with the elderly (over 60, which, depressingly, includes me), and immunocompromised: Israel, Germany, U.K., Russia, Hungary, and others.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ne-coronavirus

https://www.axios.com/germany-uk-cov...cdd0906d2.html

Delta variant causes >1,000 times higher viral load

One reason the Delta variant is so highly transmissible, and causes more severe illness, is because it reproduces much more quickly, and to a greater extent, than other strains. Recent studies show that infected individuals have more than 1,000 times the viral load (virions) compared with other strains:

https://virological.org/t/viral-infe...-2-variant/724

In many ways, this makes Delta almost a different disease than we faced before - and with more serious pandemic risks.

Other variants are coming

Delta will not be the last variant we face. Thousands have already been identified, and there are some that appear to show greater risk than Delta in terms of increased vaccine resistance, virulence, and transmissibility. The next threats seem to be Lambda, and B.1.621:

https://www.livescience.com/lambda-c...s-variant.html

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...88754321001798

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b1893335.html

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....08.21256619v1

It is inevitable that complete vaccine escape variants will emerge. If we don't take this seriously and implement additional safety measures, more infections and deaths will follow.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...2-26-july-2021

[Lantanafrs2]

Natural immunity looks better and better

[spike021]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

Natural immunity looks better and better

Which part are you replying this to? That immunity from the mRNA vaccines has dropped for response to Delta?

[FR-S2GT86]

“It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear, and it absolutely will not stop, EVER, until you are dead!”

[FR-S2GT86]

[spcmafia]

It is almost impossible to hold a scientific talk without involving politics. Especially regarding something like COVID, which has become politicized since day one. I have the feeling that this thread is destined to suffer the same fate as the other one.

[AnalogMan]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

Natural immunity looks better and better

Except that the immunity from having COVID is less durable and lasts for a shorter length of time than from vaccines, and is even less protective against the Delta variant.

Plus there’s the significant risk of developing long-term health problems from having COVID and developing ‘immunity’ the ‘natural’ way. The last study I saw found that 40% of those infected had long-term health problems, regardless of whether the acute course of infection was asymptomatic, mild, or severe.

The mRNA vaccines are not a perfect magic shield, but are a hell of a lot better than having COVID.

[spike021]

OP posts a well-written, serious post, and people starting trolling in it.

Shows how this thread will wind up going tbh.

[Lantanafrs2]

My guess is we'll start getting boosters once 80 percent has been fully immunized.

[spike021]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

My guess is we'll start getting boosters once 80 percent has been fully immunized.

I'm curious how they'll decide when, honestly.

Like do they want to make sure the next booster can protect efficiently against just Delta, Delta+Lambda, etc.

Problem is that variants are probably coming up quickly enough that you can't really win that race.

[Capt Spaulding]

Originally Posted by spike021

OP posts a well-written, serious post, and people starting trolling in it.

Shows how this thread will wind up going tbh.

Rather than trolling in it, scent marking on it is more accurate.

It's the problem with nominally public forums, they're open to the nominal public.

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by spike021

I'm curious how they'll decide when, honestly.

Like do they want to make sure the next booster can protect efficiently against just Delta, Delta+Lambda, etc.

Problem is that variants are probably coming up quickly enough that you can't really win that race.

I dont think efficacy is the issue but logistics. I believe the booster is inevitable but they want to minimize confusion and strengthen confidence in the first immunization.

[Atmo]

Subject to change like so much else we've heard and may have changed already, but...

"Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time."

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/...-boosters.html

[Lantanafrs2]

Twice now I've had some malady that showed damn near every covid symptom minus the loss of taste and smell and tested negative. Meanwhile at least 7 of my friends have tested positive with minor symptoms. ��