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Old 06-30-2021, 08:02 AM   #2941
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Someone posted a pic of a guy exactly like that standing in front of a Whole Foods store on another site I'm on during the winter. Truly, I do not wish to shop at that store now.
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Old 06-30-2021, 08:28 AM   #2942
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Back to OT.

Heard in the news yesterday that the Canadian federal govt. has suspicion that there may actually have been up to double the amount of deaths attributed to Covid19 than actually reported. It sounds crazy but the number of surplus deaths since the beginning of the pandemic is significant. Also stated that even though 80% of reported Covid19 related mortalities occurred in those 80 and over, and mostly in longterm care and retirement homes, there is much that is missing. In younger age groups there was a significant upturn in deaths, many that ended up dying at home. They were not tested for Covid19 post mortem but they are about to make that testing mandatory since many deaths attributed to the virus in younger age groups primarily is believed to have gone untested and therefore unreported. I'll find a link to put up in a bit...

That's got to make you think twice if you were still feeling the vaccines are an unnecessary risk for yourself.
What data are they basing this on? I think that's going to be hard to prove considering it's been over a year.
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Old 06-30-2021, 09:12 AM   #2943
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What data are they basing this on? I think that's going to be hard to prove considering it's been over a year.
That's the problem, even though mortality rates in younger age groups also increased significantly, many were not hospitalized and also it was noted that there was a trend toward marginalized and low income communities.

They have yet to release more info but it appears people's deaths were attributed to other causes and no Covid19 tests were performed on many people that died. Now, analysis of the numbers indicates the uptick in other age groups and areas might have been overlooked as those also having been infected.

I am guessing that other illnesses going untreated during the pandemic and increased suicides could be at least partially the cause.

They also intend to make testing mandatory with all reported seriously ill or mortalities.

Here's the article. Keep in mind the word might

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canad...aths-1.6084595
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Old 06-30-2021, 09:25 AM   #2944
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What data are they basing this on? I think that's going to be hard to prove considering it's been over a year.

The data has been there all along. Covid deaths are underreported, or we have an as-yet unidentified cause of excess deaths. Way beyond reasonable year-to-year variance.
A friend used to do a bunch of analysis and share... But not something I can share or I'd provide the reference.
The denial is what scares me the most.
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Old 06-30-2021, 09:43 AM   #2945
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The data has been there all along. Covid deaths are underreported, or we have an as-yet unidentified cause of excess deaths. Way beyond reasonable year-to-year variance.
A friend used to do a bunch of analysis and share... But not something I can share or I'd provide the reference.
The denial is what scares me the most.
Excess deaths, while a red flag, is not enough evidence to state for a fact that covid deaths were vastly under reported, especially not by a specific number/percentage. My point was to bring up that there are gaps in the data which inhibit the logical progression needed, and those gaps are not likely to be filled, so I doubt the official tally will change.

Does the statistical analysis point to unreported covid deaths as likely, sure. But that seems to be based on certain assumptions, and a different study can come to a very different conclusion by making different, but entirely reasonable assumptions.
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Old 06-30-2021, 10:01 AM   #2946
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Okay, barring any other assumptions, what other candidate event is there to explain the excess deaths in every single global region in 2020?

Give me a break, the writing is on the wall but people refuse to read it.
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Old 06-30-2021, 11:24 AM   #2947
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Okay, barring any other assumptions, what other candidate event is there to explain the excess deaths in every single global region in 2020?
There is always the possibility it is a statistical anomaly or just a coincidence of timing. Just because non-COVID deaths were above average does not mean COVID was underreported as the cause, after all, that is how averages work.

Early on in the epidemic there was a lot of talk about COVID deaths being overreported when the real issue was an underlying cause COVID brought to the forefront (a respiratory issue, obesity, etc).

Ultimately, it seems that both under and over reporting are likely in specific circumstances.
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Old 06-30-2021, 01:30 PM   #2948
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Okay, barring any other assumptions, what other candidate event is there to explain the excess deaths in every single global region in 2020?

Give me a break, the writing is on the wall but people refuse to read it.
Dadhawk got the gist of what I was saying.
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Old 06-30-2021, 01:46 PM   #2949
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ER being at capacity would cause some. People staying quiet instead of going to the doctor would cause some. Very much not all direct causation.
And yeah, it could be a lot of things. We don't have the data to prove anything this late in the game and can't go collect it.
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Old 06-30-2021, 02:21 PM   #2950
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I'd go with reduced access to healthcare and well as rising mental health crises during the pandemic being underlying reasons for increased overall mortality rates.

Can't do PCM tests on all these people who didn't provide specimens for that test so it's too late to verify anything.

It's all speculation but it is probably safe to say Covid19 caused an increase in mortality in more ways than infecting its victims.
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Old 06-30-2021, 02:50 PM   #2951
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Excess deaths, while a red flag, is not enough evidence to state for a fact that covid deaths were vastly under reported, especially not by a specific number/percentage. My point was to bring up that there are gaps in the data which inhibit the logical progression needed, and those gaps are not likely to be filled, so I doubt the official tally will change.

Does the statistical analysis point to unreported covid deaths as likely, sure. But that seems to be based on certain assumptions, and a different study can come to a very different conclusion by making different, but entirely reasonable assumptions.
Such as? I don't really find @cjd's suggestion all that compelling. And @Dadhawk's suggestion that we re seeing a statistical aberration, while possible (at some low level probability) seems implausible.

Statistical analyses can never really "prove" anything - particularly inferential analyses. All they can do is offer support for a lesser of better educated guess. In this instance someone (not me - at least not yet) could probably create relatively well specified model incorporating as many independent variables as possible _- "shit happens" is not one of them - (given the obvious missing data problems) model to test the "covid caused excess deaths" hypothesis. I suspect someone already has - it's pretty low hanging fruit.

My bet is at the end of the day Covid will win out, probably by a strong margin. It would be an "interesting project."
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:05 PM   #2952
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And @Dadhawk's suggestion that we re seeing a statistical aberration, while possible (at some low level probability) seems implausible.
I agree it's implausible it accounts for all the variation, but it could be a contributing factor. Regardless, COVID was bad news, and as I mentioned I think there are cases of both under and over reporting.

Even if all the "other" additional deaths could be contributed to other diseases or causes, there is a good chance the overwhelming impact COVID had on the overall healthcare system played a part in other causes leading to death.
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:08 PM   #2953
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So let's think about it for a bit.

What we'd like to do is to specify a model that would incorporate as many potential causes/explanations for the number of excess deaths as possible.

What sorts of things/events could we include?

Natural disasters?

Famines?

unrelated healthcare system collapses (we know many health systems collapsed - due to the covid crush) but might there be non-covid related instances?

Outbreaks of other diseases? Which ones?

Covid aside, what about 2020 was special? What would make so many more people die of cardio-pulmonary (or other) diseases than would normally be expected?

What do you guys think?
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Old 06-30-2021, 03:16 PM   #2954
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Mass suffocation from all the cover-ups?
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