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Old 04-06-2020, 04:44 PM   #589
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Never said the problem wouldn't be solved, just not certain if through Darwin's Natural Selection theory or through science.

The numbers are flawed, from a statistics point of view. We don't know how many have been exposed to the virus, how many have the virus and have no idea how many already have antibodies. Were using numbers taken from the worst case scenario test group, mainly those with the virus and in need of care and applying those numbers to the projections.

The only way to be accurate is to test EVERY person for the virus and/or for antibodies. Then we need to retest EVERY person every 2 weeks to see where we are in the cycle to properly account and plan for what is happening. Otherwise it's just a guessing game.

Our constitution also ensures that we are free to make are own decisions, including on our health.
I'm confused. You are saying we are all blindfolded, but are also suggesting we should all get a gun that may or may not be loaded and go into a gun fight.

We have tested more people than anyone in the world, but it is true that the number of tests that we have performed per the size of our population is low. In fact, as a percentage of our population, we are 41st in the world at tests performed per million of our population. Moreover, the tests are not very accurate, so you are right, that we don't have a great idea about how many have this virus or how bad it really is, yet we can estimate these things based on current data from all over the world.

From those estimates, if we all returned to work then we would see millions in the US die. That is the best estimates we have to make a decision.

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This is entirely untrue. The virus isn't just going to disappear, even if every human on earth was sealed in a germ free container for 2 weeks or 10 weeks the virus would still be present when we came out and our immune systems would be that much less equipped to handle it. The cycle would restart.
This is incorrect. If we all stayed at home then the virus would kill the weak at maybe 1-2% death rate (we don't know) and the rest of those that were symptomatic or asymptomatic would recover. Some percentage of the population would have acquired immunity and other would still have no immunity or weak to natural immunity. After two weeks, anyone exposed would have antibodies for the virus, but the virus wouldn't be present in our bodies (ie, COVID tests would all be negative), and we wouldn't be able to infect others who didn't get the virus.
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Old 04-06-2020, 04:49 PM   #590
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I think the point is that we know who is at highest risk of hospitalization and therefore we know who needs the most protection. I don't think anyone is suggesting to simply abandon them or do nothing. The problem is that society is actively, if indirectly, killing others as a solution to a somewhat natural disaster.

Different example:
If a meteor comes out of nowhere and hits Dallas it's a tragic natural disaster. If we detect it in time to deflect it so that it only hits Waco, is that still a natural disaster? What if it were deflected to hit Houston instead, or let's throw something like Mexico City on that list? Yeah, we saved Dallas, but at what cost? In this example we can apply a scale to both options, and rationalize the decision to intervene.

With the virus it seems like we chose to replace one problem with another without knowing where that proverbial meteor will fall. We could very well be at the precipice of a much worse disaster of our own making.
If you are implying that the "worse disaster" is the economic fallout from sheltering in place then there are political answers to that, which doesn't cost lives.
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Old 04-06-2020, 04:56 PM   #591
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I couldn't have said it better!
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Old 04-06-2020, 05:12 PM   #592
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Good exchange ya'll got going here.

Sort of like watching Fox news vs. CNN.
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Old 04-06-2020, 05:33 PM   #593
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Thanks @ Irace86.2.0.

I couldn't have said it better!
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Also, there is an assumption that everything will return to normal:

Will everyone want to return to work? That is like someone saying that there is a hurricane or tornado in the area, but we have lifted the shelter, so go work.

Will people want to buy that new car or splurge on a cruise ship vacation now that the shelter order is lifted, or will people lack confidence in the strength of the market and save for the second wave of the virus?

Even if the US chooses to restart their market, will other markets follow suit? Will we be able to export anything? Will there be products to import? Will oversees suppliers cause bottlenecks in supply chains that will prevent production?

How will the economy be effected by the death toll? By the very definition of losing hundreds of millions of lives worldwide, the economy would see a depression, as demand for goods would drop. There may be long term economic costs to those who could be chronically debilitated by the pulmonary fibrosis that this illness can cause. There may be long term emotional distress from losing those who are young and old. The loss of lives could economically stifle the economy for longer; we don't know.
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Old 04-06-2020, 05:58 PM   #594
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If you are implying that the "worse disaster" is the economic fallout from sheltering in place then there are political answers to that, which doesn't cost lives.
One might say that politics is never the solution.
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Old 04-06-2020, 06:13 PM   #595
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Also, there is an assumption that everything will return to normal:
Well, I think I'll just stick around a few more years to find out -

I don't much like the alternative.
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Old 04-06-2020, 06:15 PM   #596
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One might say that politics is never the solution.
Said every anarchist and libertarian until reality sinks in, but really, someone could say that it is unavoidable regardless of our choices, so let's at act on the science/data that we have and do the best we can to save lives until this subsides, or until a treatment or vaccine could be made, or until we have new, better data.
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Old 04-06-2020, 06:59 PM   #597
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With one in five needing hospitalization, this would totally overwhelm our health care system. Our supply chain would suffer. The economy would take longer to reboot.
Actual number is actually 1 in 20 needing hospitalization (5% of the total number of current confirmed infected). Still a 95% rate of MILD symptoms of all those confirmed as infected.

Data from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:18 PM   #598
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0 View Post
We have tested more people than anyone in the world, but it is true that the number of tests that we have performed per the size of our population is low. In fact, as a percentage of our population, we are 41st in the world at tests performed per million of our population. Moreover, the tests are not very accurate, so you are right, that we don't have a great idea about how many have this virus or how bad it really is, yet we can estimate these things based on current data from all over the world.

From those estimates, if we all returned to work then we would see millions in the US die. That is the best estimates we have to make a decision.
We have tested more people, correct, resulting in a higher number of cases found. No surprise there. We still cannot estimate using formulas and results from other places where the population makeup, availability of care, age, life expectancy, etc. are all different from ours, or from places with questionable reporting.


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This is incorrect. If we all stayed at home then the virus would kill the weak at maybe 1-2% death rate (we don't know) and the rest of those that were symptomatic or asymptomatic would recover. Some percentage of the population would have acquired immunity and other would still have no immunity or weak to natural immunity. After two weeks, anyone exposed would have antibodies for the virus, but the virus wouldn't be present in our bodies (ie, COVID tests would all be negative), and we wouldn't be able to infect others who didn't get the virus.
The situation in Italy says this is untrue, they have been on lockdown since March 10th (4 weeks ago) and people are still getting infected, and dying...
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:59 PM   #599
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Oh hell, let's stop this mindless violence and just all get infected. Survival of the fittest, yolo, yeet, or whatever is cool these days.
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Old 04-06-2020, 08:00 PM   #600
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We have tested more people, correct, resulting in a higher number of cases found. No surprise there. We still cannot estimate using formulas and results from other places where the population makeup, availability of care, age, life expectancy, etc. are all different from ours, or from places with questionable reporting.
We (you and I) can't, but epidemiologists can because that is what they do. There are places like Iceland that has tested 8% of their population. There are cruise ships that act as isolated experiments for the potential of the disease to infect others. There are countries that are more successful than others. They have examples of healthcare systems that were overwhelmed and ones that weren't. It is a lot to process, but that is THEIR job and skillset. The models that they made are very clear about what will happen if we return to work--millions will die.

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The situation in Italy says this is untrue, they have been on lockdown since March 10th (4 weeks ago) and people are still getting infected, and dying...
No country is doing what I said; we can't put the entire world in isolated cages for 14 days. It wasn't a realistic suggestion anyways; it was to illustrate a point about the extremes of taking no action and taking the most extreme action.

People are still communicating the disease. They are passing it to their family. They are sharing it when they go to work at their essential jobs. They are spreading it when they protest or when they defy the orders, and it doesn't take much for the virus to spread. The virus is at its most potent 15 hours before symptoms start, and that is assuming symptoms start. Small contacts with people can spread like wildfire in exponential ways.

Spend some time reading about what China did--what its communist government is capable of doing. Then, read about what Italy has ordered with their lockdown, and what their people are doing? It is clear to see that China had a lockdown, and Italy ordered a less extreme lockdown, but it is not being followed, as if it was a shelter-in-place or less.

More than 100,000 people have been caught defying Italy’s lockdown

https://qz.com/1824240/thousands-are...irus-lockdown/

China's coronavirus lockdown strategy: brutal but effective

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-but-effective
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Old 04-06-2020, 08:07 PM   #601
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You seriously think China contained it? And you believe their reported number of infected and deaths? And think their action model worked? And is actually viable?

Alrightly then...https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#767602d12d58

I've attached todays "published" numbers and percentages.
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File Type: pdf Corona Excel.pdf (228.8 KB, 7 views)
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Old 04-06-2020, 08:27 PM   #602
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Actual number is actually 1 in 20 needing hospitalization (5% of the total number of current confirmed infected). Still a 95% rate of MILD symptoms of all those confirmed as infected.

Data from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Those are flawed numbers. Look at the American numbers.
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