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Old 09-06-2022, 11:04 PM   #1191
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I still vote we move towards hydrogen. But I also believe we should read a text book instead of a bible.
The end of life carbon emissions are higher for hydrogen than BEVs currently on a mixed grid, and they still would be higher on a renewable grid, but the grid would need to be even bigger with hydrogen because of how inefficient hydrogen is from electricity generation to vehicle motion. When we move to sodium sulfur batteries, the emissions from battery production should drop significantly because sodium sulfur production will be greener, and the batteries will be much smaller. This is because the batteries are more energy dense, so they don't need to be as big, which means the cars will be lighter, and that also means the batteries won't need to be as big.

For hydrogen, to support desalination and electrolysis for hydrogen production, there would need to be massive infrastructure, and because hydrogen is far less efficient than BEVs, we would need to make far more renewable infrastructure for electricity generation, and then the gas stations would need to be converted to support hydrogen fuel, and that is far more expensive than putting up superchargers and plugging cars into the grid in a garage at home and work.

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Old 09-07-2022, 10:47 AM   #1192
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The end of life carbon emissions are higher for hydrogen than BEVs currently on a mixed grid, and they still would be higher on a renewable grid, but the grid would need to be even bigger with hydrogen because of how inefficient hydrogen is from electricity generation to vehicle motion. When we move to sodium sulfur batteries, the emissions from battery production should drop significantly because sodium sulfur production will be greener, and the batteries will be much smaller. This is because the batteries are more energy dense, so they don't need to be as big, which means the cars will be lighter, and that also means the batteries won't need to be as big.

For hydrogen, to support desalination and electrolysis for hydrogen production, there would need to be massive infrastructure, and because hydrogen is far less efficient than BEVs, we would need to make far more renewable infrastructure for electricity generation, and then the gas stations would need to be converted to support hydrogen fuel, and that is far more expensive than putting up superchargers and plugging cars into the grid in a garage at home and work.

Maybe it does. But EV is not the solution for a very long time.
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Old 09-07-2022, 10:50 AM   #1193
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Maybe it does. But EV is not the solution for a very long time.
The tech for EVs is evolving daily. They can be a long term solution it will just take a bit to get there.
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Old 09-07-2022, 01:50 PM   #1194
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Maybe it does. But EV is not the solution for a very long time.
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The tech for EVs is evolving daily. They can be a long term solution it will just take a bit to get there.
Same thing applies to Hydrogen. If it was being worked on with the same diligence, the "bar" above would over time get lower, and probably get within spitting distance of battery.

At this point, I'd take either as long as the infrastructure is close to reasonable. Unfortunately that leaves hydrogen out.
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Old 09-07-2022, 02:36 PM   #1195
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Maybe it does. But EV is not the solution for a very long time.
Why isn’t it a long term solution? Why is hydrogen better as a long term solution?


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Same thing applies to Hydrogen. If it was being worked on with the same diligence, the "bar" above would over time get lower, and probably get within spitting distance of battery.

At this point, I'd take either as long as the infrastructure is close to reasonable. Unfortunately that leaves hydrogen out.
With hydrogen, we are running into hurdles that have to do with chemistry and physics that can only be improved so much.
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Old 09-07-2022, 02:48 PM   #1196
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Why isn’t it a long term solution? Why is hydrogen better as a long term solution?




With hydrogen, we are running into hurdles that have to do with chemistry and physics that can only be improved so much.
Like batteries? The challenges are no different really it is just that batteries received the focus and is where the money has gone so they won.
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Old 09-07-2022, 06:36 PM   #1197
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Like batteries? The challenges are no different really it is just that batteries received the focus and is where the money has gone so they won.
That wasn't coincidence. They won for a reason.

Hydrogen will always be less efficient than BEVs, so that is a hurdle that is impossible to overcome. Electricity can be produced through renewables and stored in batteries to be used in cars, or electricity can be used to produce hydrogen, and then the hydrogen can be used to produce electricity again to put into a battery to run the car. This is like Rube Goldberg system. Just simplify.

The hurdles for hydrogen is the inherent need for more infrastructure to desalinate water, to produce hydrogen and to deliver/store/transport hydrogen, and there is a need for even more renewables than BEVs. Just comparing the efficiency of 73% versus 22%, we would need to produce 3.3x the amount of renewable energy to produce enough hydrogen to produce enough electricity to match the output of BEVs.

For BEVs, the main two problems are range and materials. Hydrogen fixes the range for planes or ships or off-road vehicles, but it isn't necessary for passenger vehicles or semis with high-density, solid state batteries and battery swapping. Sodium sulfur batteries will fix the range and materials issues. When swapping catches on and becomes modular and probably standardized, batteries will be even smaller.
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Old 09-07-2022, 06:44 PM   #1198
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Old 09-07-2022, 07:19 PM   #1199
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"Elon Musk said..."

Me:
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Old 09-07-2022, 07:43 PM   #1200
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There is a lot of 'no duh' moments and also moments when Musk is getting it wrong in that article. For instance, we have been saying that it will take decades to just get off oil for passenger vehicles, but we obviously use oil in everything from plastics to fertilizer. There are alternatives, but it will be quite a while for the world to significantly reduce oil dependence, so yeah, of course we can't go cold turkey overnight.



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In an interview with the New York Times last year, the billionaire said he felt a “bit bad about hating on the oil and gas industry” as the people who built those companies had no idea about the impact of fossil fuel usage.
Oil companies knew about global warming back in the 1980's, but they did everything to refute and dismiss what they knew to be true. Musk knows that. He may just be trying to make some new friends.

https://theconversation.com/what-big...n-words-170642



I'm not against nuclear because it is green, but the reality is that it is extremely expensive upfront cost, the plants take a long time to make, there are huge government (at every level) obstacles that delay production, no one wants it in their backyard, there is the question of the long and safe storage of nuclear waste, there is the risk of meltdowns, there is a risk of terrorism, and there is probably more. Companies trying to maximize their profit do the bare minimum to prepare and maintain the facilities, which is always concerning. If an accident occurs, it could leave an area uninhabitable like Chernobyl. Governments typically need to subsidize the investment, but even then, investors may not see a return for decades, so they would rather put their money into solar or wind, which has dropped significantly and is faster to market and faster to get a return on their investment.

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Old 09-11-2022, 02:38 PM   #1201
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Energy. Density.

Vehicles do not have unlimited space and mass.

Paper from 2014 and likely a bit biased toward hydrogen, but it illustrates the idea.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcell...icles-compared
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Old 09-11-2022, 08:49 PM   #1202
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Energy. Density.

Vehicles do not have unlimited space and mass.

Paper from 2014 and likely a bit biased toward hydrogen, but it illustrates the idea.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcell...icles-compared
The paper is fairly old and hasn’t aged well. The range vs vehicle weight chart hasn’t held up to time. For instance, a Tesla Model 3 standard range plus with 262 miles of range weighs 1,645kg, which isn’t too far away from a comparable BMW and is a ways away from 2,000kg suggested in the article. Meanwhile the new Toyota Mirai weights 1,920kg/4,224lbs with 402 miles of range, and the comparable Tesla Model S weighs 4,883lbs, so the Tesla is heavier, yet it is also 4” wider, but it is not 3,000kg/6,600lbs like the article suggests.

The battery density has probably improved, and they didn’t consider packaging. Previously, BEVs were ICE vehicles retrofitted with batteries. The skateboard design utilizes the battery as a structural component of the car, which reduces weight, and the packs and modules are far more efficiently built into the vehicles without the bracketry needed to mount inverters and other components into conventional engine bays. I think if you compare the cargo capacity of the Model S and Mirai, the Tesla would have more, so the topic of storage predates the skateboard design, which is very compact.

Power and performance seems to be well managed despite their statements. The Mirai goes 9.2 sec to 60, and 7.4 on the mark II, but this is much slower than the Model S standard at 4.2 sec.

End of life GHG emissions for BEVs are less than HCEVs, even if hydrogen was produced from renewables, so they are wrong there too. Part of the problem are the conversion losses, and the other problem was the energy density improvements and vehicle weight.

Cost is comparable or favoring the BEVs when we base things off performance.

The energy density of new sodium/lithium sulfur batteries is on a different scale and makes this paper even more outdated. The recent discovery of a stable lithium sulfur battery with greater charge cycles. These batteries aren’t going to have 8x the range, but expect huge improvements to range. Sodium sulfur batteries have excellent power density and have shown to have 5,000 cycles making them twice that of lithium ion.

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The energy density of traditional Li-ion batteries can hardly go beyond 300 Wh/kg.
Quote:
Based on an average discharge voltage of 2.15 V, the theoretical gravimetric energy density of a Li-S cell is ~2,510 Wh/kg, which is much higher than that of the traditional Li-ion batteries.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...019.00123/full

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This development would not only make sulfur batteries commercially viable, but they would have three times the capacity of Li-ion batteries and last more than 4,000 recharges
https://drexel.edu/news/archive/2022...te-electrolyte
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Last edited by Irace86.2.0; 09-12-2022 at 01:39 AM.
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Old 10-28-2022, 04:32 PM   #1203
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Why hydrogen ICEs are probably not going to work for many people:

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Old 12-22-2022, 05:11 PM   #1204
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