Expert prognosis for the planet

[soundman98]

i don't know where the electric car thread went, so i'm posting this here.

https://news-yahoo-com.cdn.ampprojec...164149467.html

[Spuds]

Originally Posted by soundman98

i don't know where the electric car thread went, so i'm posting this here.

https://news-yahoo-com.cdn.ampprojec...164149467.html

Yeah, I think EVs are going to reach a plateau in demand earlier than a lot of people are expecting.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Yeah, I think EVs are going to reach a plateau in demand earlier than a lot of people are expecting.

That's going to be unfortunate for some of the "all in" car manufacturers. In the end I could own and enjoy an EV, but there would be a petrol car parked right next to it for when I needed to go more than a full charge away.

The only way petrol goes away for me in the next 25 years is if Hydrogen becomes available with at least the minimal infrastructure electric has today. I could live with that.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Yeah, I think EVs are going to reach a plateau in demand earlier than a lot of people are expecting.

Unfortunately that plateau will be forced upon people. If that is all you can get you won't have a choice to go back.
The infrastructure and tech for charging is improving all the time so if the only reason they are switching back(as implied in the 3 sentence "article") then that issue will be resolved.
The whole 20% went back number is totally meaningless on it own anyway. In fact the statements made in that link are all meaningless without data to back them up. What "study"? Did they ask 10 people and 2 said they changed back? The thing is a waste of time reading as it is printed.
How about the fact that EV/Hybrid sales have gone up 81% the first quarter of this year? They expect even better growth next year.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...in%20Q1%202020.

[Lantanafrs2]

We like to poke fun at ev owners during a power outage but right now there is a mini fuel shortage in south Florida. Pots and kettles

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

We like to poke fun at ev owners during a power outage but right now there is a mini fuel shortage in south Florida. Pots and kettles

analysts are predicting there'll be gas shortages all over the country this summer as well..

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by soundman98

analysts are predicting there'll be gas shortages all over the country this summer as well..

I never listen to analysts but racetrac customer service told me via email that they were experiencing supply difficulties. They were out of e85 for 3 weeks. Now I see a sign on the door that says they have no 89 or 91. The problem with fuel is that it needs to be transported and from what I read that's where the bottleneck is.

[weederr33]

Originally Posted by soundman98

analysts are predicting there'll be gas shortages all over the country this summer as well..

Good!

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2

I never listen to analysts but racetrac customer service told me via email that they were experiencing supply difficulties. They were out of e85 for 3 weeks. Now I see a sign on the door that says they have no 89 or 91. The problem with fuel is that it needs to be transported and from what I read that's where the bottleneck is.

yeah, it sounds like things are starting to brush against the typical issue.

companies say "we pay a fair wage" but can't find drivers.

drivers find something that pays better, clearly indicating they weren't getting paid a worthwhile wage...

[Lantanafrs2]

Originally Posted by soundman98

yeah, it sounds like things are starting to brush against the typical issue.

companies say "we pay a fair wage" but can't find drivers.

drivers find something that pays better, clearly indicating they weren't getting paid a worthwhile wage...

Or they can't pass a drug screen.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Yeah, I think EVs are going to reach a plateau in demand earlier than a lot of people are expecting.

The recently retired Toyota CEO Jim Lentz in 2020 predicted that EV's and HEV's will at best represent 5% share by 2030 based on natural demand discounting artificial mandates.

Based on April 2021 North American sales, he underestimated demand. Toyota was the first auto manufacturer in history to sell 1,000,000+ plus vehicles in a month, led by a surge in HEV sales up almost 300% fueled (!) by incentives and skyrocketing gas prices.

The downside is that there's another historic marker. Dealer and port stock combined is down to an unheard of nine days supply. This is a good time to sell your used car.

They'll recover and today Toyota announced that they'll be making their own chips starting later this year with the 2022 Tundra with an HEV model available.

I think the turning point in EV's will happen with the rollout of solid state batteries we'll soon see with the Panasonic/Toyota JV.

[Atmo]

Originally Posted by soundman98

yeah, it sounds like things are starting to brush against the typical issue.

companies say "we pay a fair wage" but can't find drivers.

drivers find something that pays better, clearly indicating they weren't getting paid a worthwhile wage...

According to a roofing contractor I talked with last week, he can't compete with enhanced unemployment benefits being paid to his former employees who would rather sit on their couch than work.

He said margins are so thin that he can't afford to raise wages and stay in business.

I get it, why drive a nail gun on a hot roof all day when suckers are forced to pay them to stay home?

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Atmo

According to a roofing contractor I talked with last week, he can't compete with enhanced unemployment benefits being paid to his former employees who would rather sit on their couch than work.

He said margins are so thin that he can't afford to raise wages and stay in business.

I get it, why drive a nail gun on a hot roof all day when suckers are forced to pay them to stay home?

residential contractor work is especially cutthroat. for every genuine, honest contractor that tries to keep fair prices and good wages for their guy's, there's a dozen hackjobs working out of the back of their trucks without licenses...

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

i don't know where the electric car thread went, so i'm posting this here.

https://news-yahoo-com.cdn.ampprojec...164149467.html

It was in the Other Car subforum and not the Off-Topic subforum.

Early adopters in a market that is still in its infancy. I wouldn't be surprised if many things change. Maybe more new homes will by pre-wired for 240v in the garage. More new parking structures will come with Level 2 chargers. There will be a lot of retrofitting.

Most manufactures are going electric completely in the near future regardless. Adaptations will be made. It isn't happening in just a few years. It'll take decades. There is plenty of time to freak out.

Originally Posted by Spuds

Yeah, I think EVs are going to reach a plateau in demand earlier than a lot of people are expecting.

Famous last words. People said the same about many products including computers. They couldn't look beyond the current situation with society and beyond the present state of the technology, nor could they imagine what could be possible in the future.

EVs are the ultimate vehicle for most people: automatic as it gets, lots of space, quiet, low maintenance, reliable, plenty of torque for city and stop-and-go driving. They are going to be the next tech/entertainment hub; an iPhone on wheels. Demand is only going up as more technology advances the platforms, and as more variety enters the marketplace, and as more infrastructure supports EVs such as solar and home charging. As the young advances in age, and as the old turn in their keys or die off, the demand for EVs will only grow. In fact, old people might be the ones to adopt EVs more because of autonomous/taxi features, but we will see.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/05/06...n-q2-2021/amp/

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...-in-california

The S curve will be accelerated by legislation, but it is inevitable unless a different technology comes along to replace EVs, or we reach energy utopia or battery material bottlenecks, so hydrogen + small batteries makes more sense or something.