New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Only a very small percentage of buyers come close to considering long-term costs. It's all about the monthly payment with zero money down.

Most persons don't even understand the concept of paying cash for a vehicle.

I think the two biggest things people look at is monthly cost and reliability. The problem is the POS price is a guaranteed cost. The projected price is not guaranteed, so if the POS price jumps up, not only does it deter people, but it flat out prices them out from qualifying. It doesn’t matter if they will save a few hundred in gas and maintenance per month; the POS price makes it prohibitive. It doesn’t help that manufacturers are selling EVs at a premium, making them up market based on performance, tech, features, etc. like Motortrend said.

Companies like Lexus built a reputation for reliability. That took time. Electric powertrains may be low maintenance and more reliable, but most people likely have the false perception that they are unreliable and unproven, will likely explode in a fire, may require more maintenance, and so on. Plus, with reliability comes dependability, and the charging networks aren’t as dependable, as people would like, nor as plentiful, so I’m sure there are reliability/dependability fears and fears of the unknown, including range anxiety.

Nio reduced the price of entry by detaching the price of the car from the battery and basically turned the battery into a gas payment, effectively making the loan for the car and for qualifying on par with cars in the $20k’s range.

[Sasquachulator]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Only a very small percentage of buyers come close to considering long-term costs. It's all about the monthly payment with zero money down.

Most persons don't even understand the concept of paying cash for a vehicle.

Most people dont have a big chunk of cash laying in the bank or under a mattress to even complete a transaction of this magnitude like that.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Sasquachulator

Most people dont have a big chunk of cash laying in the bank or under a mattress to even complete a transaction of this magnitude like that.

Oh I agree and while I recommend it, I know it isn't a path for everyone.

You have to plan and save for it, and be willing to compromise on the path, maybe buying cheap, saving for an upgrade, flipping along the way.

I could get a loan for just about any car I want short of a supercar. I choose not to. We haven't had an auto payment in 20 years, except to ourselves.

Mostly my response was to @Irace86.2.0 with my $0.02 as to why running costs don't figure into most car purchases, except may when they look at the MPG calculations and it's about this deep "this car has a higher MPG rating than that car, but that car is close enough and it's the color I want".

[bcj]

Previous user experience with re-chargeable batteries isn't overwhelmingly positive.
My laptop was sort of OK for a year or two. Now it doesn't go for more than 10 minutes unplugged.
Having to pitch out a phone with a dead un-replaceable battery is a burden even now.

[Spuds]

Interesting take on EV reliability. Counterintuitive, but the data says they are less reliable.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars...s-a1047214174/

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by bcj

Previous user experience with re-chargeable batteries isn't overwhelmingly positive.
My laptop was sort of OK for a year or two. Now it doesn't go for more than 10 minutes unplugged.
Having to pitch out a phone with a dead un-replaceable battery is a burden even now.

if you are referring to the drive battery in EVs, they are all warranted for 8 years/100,000 miles to at 75% or higher of their initial capacity.

In practice, they lose a little bit over 2% of capacity each year. Here's a chart where you can put in a vehicle/year and it will show you the degradation based on actual data. Some vehicles don't have enough history to show yet. It varies by model because battery chemistry varies.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Interesting take on EV reliability. Counterintuitive, but the data says they are less reliable.

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars...s-a1047214174/

Well, the data isn't in this article, and it doesn't say EV powertrains are less reliable. It says the overall reliability is lower for EVs, which is not a surprise because Tesla build quality is still poor for a premium brand, and it makes up the vast number of people being surveyed, if this truly was a random survey. It says some of the most common issues was powertrain issues, but then says Tesla's powertrains are pretty solid. "Most common" is the same as saying, 'it came up the most' in statistics, or rather, in the mean, median and mode, it is the median thing. Depending how they broke up the car, anything having to do with the powertrain including needing a new 12v battery to having a loose coolant connection to having a software issue could potentially be lumped together, but having a window motor issue, a handle issue, a brake light issue, etc could all be separate issues, so even if trivial things are braking more than major things, the "most common" problems could be powertrain. They also said the PHEV Rav-4 was one of the most reliable cars, even though PHEVs are the least reliable. They don't say the cost of these reliability repairs, if these problems are fundamental to the performance and safety or if they are aesthetic and livable. There is not much here except for percentages. But I do agree that we would expect new technology and new brands like Rivian or Ford's F150 Lightning to be going through early growing pains. Based on their volume, they are just getting started with these vehicles/systems. I don't think these things are a reflection of what will be the case in five, ten, twenty or more years, and I think anyone buying a 100k mileage used car in the future will feel more comfortable with the potential reliability of buying a used Tesla over a comparable high-mileage 3-series BMW, for instance.

[WolfpackS2k]

Stop calling Tesla a premium brand. They're not!

[Dadhawk]

If you want some more up to date number, you can look at this PDF report.

Through the third quarter EV sales are up 48% from 2022. A lot of that has to do with companies other than Tesla finally delivering the goods.

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by WolfpackS2k

Stop calling Tesla a premium brand. They're not!

I would agree that they are not luxury, but they are definitely premium. I don’t know of anyone who matters who considers them an economy brand. Most refer to them as a luxury brand, but that is mostly for price and because media, evaluators, reviewers, etc often use premium and luxury interchangeably.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

If you want some more up to date number, you can look at this PDF report.

Through the third quarter EV sales are up 48% from 2022. A lot of that has to do with companies other than Tesla finally delivering the goods.

Looks like Tesla had roughly 50% of the sales across the board, regardless of year or quarter. Looks like total sales is up, but Tesla kept its market share, which means the report is going to be dominated by a single brand.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I would agree that they are not luxury, but they are definitely premium. I don’t know of anyone who matters who considers them an economy brand. Most refer to them as a luxury brand, but that is mostly for price and because media, evaluators, reviewers, etc often use premium and luxury interchangeably.

Yea, we've already beaten this horse to death on a couple of occasions. I consider them mid-tier with an upscale price. Even the upscale price has sort of faded recently.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Looks like Tesla had roughly 50% of the sales across the board, regardless of year or quarter. Looks like total sales is up, but Tesla kept its market share, which means the report is going to be dominated by a single brand.

The drop between YTD (56.5%) to 50.0% precent Q3 for Tesla could show the beginning of a trend, but I think it's mainly that others have grown sales, not that Tesla decreased.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Yea, we've already beaten this horse to death on a couple of occasions. I consider them mid-tier with an upscale price. Even the upscale price has sort of faded recently.

Yeah, it's a point I don't think is worth debating. Buyers who pay premium prices are the ones that decide. It is subjective, even if there are objective reasons why something is more complex, more refined, more whatever.

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

The drop between YTD (56.5%) to 50.0% precent Q3 for Tesla could show the beginning of a trend, but I think it's mainly that others have grown sales, not that Tesla decreased.

Yeah, Tesla added 100k more vehicle sales. Others are just increasing their sales.

Again, cool, but my point remains that Tesla was dominating the cars being surveyed in that Consumer Reports, which shows that it is a little bogus. Half the cars have Tesla build quality, and the other half are brand new, but that doesn't mean drivetrains are less reliable. No real details or comparisons. No repair costs, critical vs aesthetic vs quick fixes, etc. They say contradictory things; EVs have common motor issues, but Teslas have solid drivetrains. I mean, way to say a lot without really saying anything.