COVID Developments and News

[Ultramaroon]

Originally Posted by MyHybridBurnsGasAndTires

you offered bad suggestions just like he did, good job?

i'm not going to waste my time giving a rebuttal to someone who is clearly arguing in bad faith, but i will mock you

Come up with something better.

[Capt Spaulding]

Ultra requested a solution. OK. What do we actually know? All things considered we seem to know; 1) Vaccines reduce the likelihood of infection by a substantial amount, 2) Vaccination reduces morbidity associated with a break through infection by a substantial amount, 3) Vaccination reduces the likelihood of hospitalization by an even greater amount and 4) Vaccination reduces the likelihood of death by an even GREATER amount. Finally, 5) we know masks are effective at slowing down the rate of transmission.

No one has mentioned the virus "reproduction number" in a very long time. This is the number of other people each infected person spreads a virus to. The goal is (should be) to reduce that number to lower (preferably much lower) than 1. If we do that, a pandemic will eventually collapse of it's own weight. What can do that? Vaccinations and masks.

I submit the above as "fact." If we can agree on those facts, the question is how to get all people to vaccinate and then get the vaccinated to mask up where needed in order to keep R-naught as far below 1 as possible.

The Governor of Idaho has refused to issue any mandates, citing his insistence the people make the responsible personal choice to "get vaccinated and do the right thing." Covid cases from Idaho have overwhelmed a number of their hospitals and are now piling in hospitals in Spokane WA among other places. Last year the Governor of Utah refused to issue a mask mandate citing the "persona responsibility" trope. Sometime later he concluded that the people of Utah are to inherently irresponsible to make decisions on their own and issued a mask mandate.

So now we have come full circle and seem only a little closer to solving the problem. I submit that human beings are so messed up as a species that we collectively are incapable of exercising personal responsibility and will not do the "right thing" absent some coercion.

There is a long extensive literature on what social scientists refer to as "The Collective Action" problem. The gist of it is that absent some form of coercion most humans will not contribute to the creation and/or maintenance of a "public good." They won't pony up money for highways, schools, law enforcement, clean air, clean water ... the list is almost endless. Applying the coercion to get these things done is one of biggest things governments do.

So, Covid is one of our most important public concerns at the moment. Coercion is necessary to everyone get on board. So - let's coerce. I don't like the idea, but some people are really fucked up and they are fucking it up for everyone else. So we will have to force them. Vaccine mandates. If you cannot be vaccinated for health reasons you are exempted, but you must quarantine until there are NO new cases for one year.

If you have religious objections - sorry. No exemptions for you. Unless you, too, are willing to quarantine until there are no new cases for a year. Go live in a unvaxed unmasked convent.

And second, mask mandates. If R-naught is greater than .75 in any community a mask mandate for all public places should be imposed until that number can be brought to below .5.

And, finally - ration care for the unvaxed.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by 86TOYO2k17

Data posted from CDC in my last post.

300,000 deaths a year could be prevented by abolishing obesity alone un related to covid, then factoring in the profound benefit to helping reduce covid cases, reduce covid mortalities, and improving outlook on top of that.

Same goes for smokers.

Far greater bang for buck to end obesity and/or smoking than a vaccine. Even if vaccine had 100% success rate which it doesn't. All things equated its probably closer to 40-60% success. Mandate a vaccine, ok fine. Then mandate ending obesity and smoking too, if you really care about peoples health and well being, the cost and burden on the medical system etc... then you would have no problem with mandates that helped end smoking and obesity.

See above for why this is silly, but in general, you are trying to make a slippery slope argument, or at best, an attempt to call people out for being logically inconsistent when in fact there are huge differences between a vaccine mandate and mandating such things.

Take smoking. Like alcohol prohibition, smoking prohibition wouldn’t work. It just creates a black market, which is harder to control, tax, regulate, etc. The solution is to tax cigarettes and to use those taxes for prophylactic education and treatment programs, which is a far better strategy. The government has mandated that smoking in public places is prohibited, so less second hand smoke exists.

For obesity, eating food can’t be mandated away, nor could mandatory exercise. How would that even be enforced? Increasing healthcare premiums to modify behavior just goes back to allowing insurance providers to charge or exclude based on preexisting conditions, and that just leads to less people being able to afford healthcare than it does for modifying behaviors.

There are things the government could do to reduce obesity and things they have done. They could stop subsidizing corn that helps to make soda, candy and chips cheaper, and that makes corn-fed, fattty-meats cheaper or fatty-dairy products cheaper. People might gravitate towards healthier foods if fast foods and bad foods weren’t artificially cheap. Increasing the standards for animal welfare, so we don’t have factory farming of animals would also help. The government has made companies add calories to restaurant menus and on the front of food containers to better educate buyers. They could reduce the work week from 40 hours to 30-35, while increasing compensation and vacation time, so people have time for exercise and recreation. This would align the US with other modern countries that have better health statistics. We see China’s obesity rate rising quickly, especially in cities where the 996 work week is common, so there are things the government could do to promote health and reduce obesity that would be more achievable than a mandate to lose weight.

Also, these conditions are not overwhelming the hospital system in spikes, nor are they contagious, so they aren’t the same. The hospital systems were built to manage these issues. The immediate surge is coming from COVID patients. The huge swings we have seen won’t be there with any other chronic disease, so managing smoking or obesity isn’t even a solution. Hospitals systems can’t be built around constantly changing surges of patients. They barely survive around the yearly flu. Healthcare would be that much more expensive if hospital systems were designed around such huge lows and highs, having empty hospital beds and then full hospital beds. The problem is this pandemic and not everything else. Also, we need to do things to reduce unnecessary deaths, but as I mentioned above, a mandate is best for this pandemic, but other solutions other than a mandate would be best for those issues. Your attempt at saying these issue equate isn’t holding water.

[86TOYO2k17]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

If you believe that 1 year can fix obesity "at the extreme" you have never had to deal with weight loss. Think of it as alcoholism without the ability to stop cold turkey. As someone who has basically fought the "good fight" against it personally all my life, it just ain't that simple.

if there was a mandate, fines, higher costs, denied service to treatment for illnesses such as covid,

you know all the things that people have suggested for getting people vaccinated, I am sure most people would lose weight real quick.

I intentionally got clinically obese pushing morbid at least from a BMI standpoint as an experiment. I maintained that weight for almost 2 years to fully incorporate it into my lifestyle and get accustomed to eating 4k+ calories a day and eating "junk" food everyday, I then lost 60lbs, 230lbs down to 170lbs. Maintained 170lbs for almost 2 years to make sure it wasn't some fluke temporary loss and that it was sustainable, before deciding to bulk up to my current weight of 190-195lbs that I have chosen to maintain for about 3 years now.

Weight loss is an entirely mental endeavor. Not saying it is easy but anyone can do it.

[spike021]

Originally Posted by cjd

Are you suggesting the same with weight loss?
And I still have no idea how you think this is an alternative to the vaccine.
Also, obesity is not contagious.

He doesn't think that; he's just cherry-picking other entirely un-related problems so he can hand-wave the blame someplace else.

[86TOYO2k17]

Originally Posted by weederr33

Even if people dropped body fat that quickly, not weight, bodyfat, they would rebound after the pandemic ended. Just look at the US as a whole. You really think people will stay on top of that? lol

Also, I'm in pretty good shape and cardiovascular health with no known problems, and I still got a pretty bad sinus infection recently. Not being overweight does NOT prevent you from getting a virus let alone prevent it from transmission.

While your solution is wonderful for those affected by CVD, diabetes, and other problems associated with poor health, it's not a proper solution.

Who said temporary, or only while covid exist? is covid expected to ever go away, are vaccines, mandates etc.. only temporary? what about booster shots? Strand mutations requiring new/altered vaccines?

my solution would prevent more death, cost, and medical burden.

Being in good health not just weight although that is one metrics for health and contributing factor. Is directly linked to a healthier and stronger immune system which helps in fighting off viruses, and keeping viral load, and viral shedding lower. Doesn't make you immune, but drastically improves projected outlook.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by 86TOYO2k17

Weight loss is an entirely mental endeavor. Not saying it is easy but anyone can do it.

I'm 5'7" tall (on a good day). If I lived on 4,000 calories a day I would weigh 600lbs. in under a year. I have to eat less than 1,500 calories a day to stay under 200, something I often fail at doing given I have a sedentary job.

Like it or not, there is a difference between your experiment of choosing to be overweight, and living with a body that wants to be overweight.

I agree anyone can be fit, but it is not a complete mental exercise. For some it's easy, for others its a day to day challenge. Some of it is environmental, some of it is biological.

[86TOYO2k17]

Originally Posted by Ultramaroon

How is that going to stop the run on hospitals? Are we all of a sudden going to magically, collectively go on a diet? Come on. Bring something actionable to the table.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Oh, and healthy young adults are dying. Healthy kids are dying. Most people are fat not because of simply eating too much, it's because they eat shit food with empty calories because they can't afford real food. Arguing that everyone should simply go on a diet is not only unrealistic, it's downright callous.

I am sure you are already aware of the foolishness of most of what you said

I am sure you already know death rates by age, and by weight, and by comorbidities.

"healthy" food is not more expensive then "shit" food. Just factually inaccurate.

"magically collectively?" I already stated numerous times, everything you are trying to implement to make the vaccine mandatory do the same for obesity and smoking.

[spike021]

I'd wager a great deal of money that most people who are:

* Obese
* Lifelong smoker
* Gang banger
* Alcoholic

Would _love_ to do one thing that takes < 10 minutes to suddenly resolve or extremely lessen that issue for them.

[86TOYO2k17]

Originally Posted by Spuds

How do you mandate ending obesity or smoking? I am not opposed to promoting these things, but since your own arguments are opposed to dictating what people put in their bodies I am curious as to what your proposal might be.

The vaccine is 95% effective against vanilla covid. And 80+% effective against known variants. Obesity being a factor for 30% of covid hospitalizations is still nowhere near the effectivity of the vaccine against covid.

Then there is the problem of success rate. Getting the vaccine is easy. You show up, you get inoculated, and you leave. Twice if it's the mRNA. It's a lot harder to lose weight. Many (possibly the majority) try and fail. Whereas there is nearly 100% success in administering the vaccine.

Feel like I've beaten a dead horse.
Whatever mandates you want for vaccine, implement for obesity and smoking.

Considering the data of infection rates and hospitalizations of vaccinated individuals, I am not sure I believe those numbers. Even if it was true.

Obesity being a factor for 30% of covid + how many non covid hospitalizations? 300,000 non covid deaths.

Then add in smokers to the equation.

Obesity/Smoking are both tracked as preventative deaths, implying it could have been preventative, implying the individual did not take necessary steps they could have to prevent it.

[weederr33]

Originally Posted by 86TOYO2k17

Who said temporary, or only while covid exist? is covid expected to ever go away, are vaccines, mandates etc.. only temporary? what about booster shots? Strand mutations requiring new/altered vaccines?

my solution would prevent more death, cost, and medical burden.

Being in good health not just weight although that is one metrics for health and contributing factor. Is directly linked to a healthier and stronger immune system which helps in fighting off viruses, and keeping viral load, and viral shedding lower. Doesn't make you immune, but drastically improves projected outlook.

The bold is literally speculation. And teetering on conspiracy with them being some sort of forever war. Even then, what difference does it make if it's an extra shot you have to get yearly like the Flu shot?

Your solution would prevent more death, cost, and medical burden in the sense of CVD and other metabolic disorders. It would not fix a virus. If that was the case we wouldn't have as many illnesses in other, more healthy, countries.

I would argue cost would not be improved. It's still expensive for some people to get a gym membership or go to something like Camp Gladiator. Even virtual things. You'd have to purchase equipment and then find space to do so. It's cheaper than going to the hospital, but considering the vaccine is literally free, that point of saving money is moot.

I'm well aware being healthy directly impacts likelihood of getting ill. But again, it is not the right solution to the problem. It's beneficial and I fully agree with you that people should be working out and exercising regularly to help stay healthy.

[86TOYO2k17]

Originally Posted by wbradley

Except that any clear thinking American would be fully vaccinated by now. And they reached full immunity within approx 10 weeks. All the vaccines you people refuse would be swallowed up by many other countries.

Obesity is 30% BMI or greater IIRC. How long would it take someone to lose 50 lbs, a year? And what is the typical success rate for large weight loss attempts? And how are you going to actually enforce this when many people simply can't lose a lot of weight? And lastly how can weight loss of an entire population prevent transmission, infection and mutation of the virus?


Whine about mandates for vaccination and masking.

Mandate set for a 1500 calorie diet and obligatory 30 mins cardio, 30 minutes strength 6 days per week. Ya, everyone would be on board. So glad you thought of an easier solution. ��

Let us know if/when your head clears.

Here's how we mandate anti-smoking at around $14/pack with taxes.

my initial response was in regards to your original post.

along the lines of "what is jenny craig going to do when you wake up not breathing."

If you apply the vaccine and allow 10 weeks prior then allow jenny craig 10 weeks prior as well. (although I would never actually encourage or recommend jenny craig specifically to anyone just continuing your logic) in which case losing a substantial amount of weight/BF% in a healthy manner would help dramatically.

1% of BW a week is considered a generally healthy and sufficient goal.

300lbs 1%/3lbs a week roughly 17 weeks for 50lbs for this example.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by 86TOYO2k17

if there was a mandate, fines, higher costs, denied service to treatment for illnesses such as covid,

you know all the things that people have suggested for getting people vaccinated, I am sure most people would lose weight real quick.

I intentionally got clinically obese pushing morbid at least from a BMI standpoint as an experiment. I maintained that weight for almost 2 years to fully incorporate it into my lifestyle and get accustomed to eating 4k+ calories a day and eating "junk" food everyday, I then lost 60lbs, 230lbs down to 170lbs. Maintained 170lbs for almost 2 years to make sure it wasn't some fluke temporary loss and that it was sustainable, before deciding to bulk up to my current weight of 190-195lbs that I have chosen to maintain for about 3 years now.

Weight loss is an entirely mental endeavor. Not saying it is easy but anyone can do it.

Vaccinated overweight people aren't the problem. It is unvaccinated people of any weight, as it relates to COVID surges. The vaccine imparts more benefits than weight loss in preventing hospitalizations. Plenty of normal weight individuals who are unvaccinated are in the hospital with COVID.

The healthcare system is built to handle chronic diseases. It is not built to manage the degree of surging patients seen with pandemics. It can barely manage the seasonal flu. In fact, the 2018 seasonal flu pushed many hospitals to the edge, so this pandemic is on a different scale. If we snapped our fingers and fixed obesity and smoking, we would reduce the number of hospitalizations to have more beds for COVID patients, but hospital systems can't be built on the huge fluctuations in COVID patients as waves come and go. The operational costs to have empty hospitals during troughs in the waves would be out of control.

It is so easy to get a vaccine shot, and it does so much that it isn't remotely compatible to smoking or obesity. The notion that these are somewhat equivalent is ridiculous.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by 86TOYO2k17

Whatever mandates you want for vaccine, implement for obesity and smoking.

Many of them are. As others have pointed out, those that are obese or smoke already pay more for employer provided healthcare since they aren't eligible for some specific discounts. Where I work that would a be penalty of almost $2000 per year if you both smoke and over overweight.