New ICE Vehicles Banned in California by 2035

[Irace86.2.0]

https://carbuzz.com/news/evs-just-ou...rce=apple.news

In an effort to reduce emissions across the globe, many countries will ban sales of new combustion-powered cars. In the UK, this will come into force in 2030, though automakers will still be allowed to sell some hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles until 2035. Norway, on the other hand, is banning sales of combustion cars as early as 2025. The country is already on track to achieve this target, too, because 54 percent of all new cars sold in Norway in 2020 were fully electric, up from 42.1 percent in 2019.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

this is ironic.
https://jalopnik.com/theres-a-caveat...les-1845938567

yes, it's less recurring damage to the environment, but it's still damaging the environment.

These issues are always a consideration. Hopefully they can find a balance. The good news is that we have a lot of lithium on the planet, so we may not need to force our way into delicate ecosystems like this example. Moreover, lithium may not be a necessary material for future batteries, or at minimum, for all future batteries.

From this article we get this quote, which is what we currently know of, so it will only grow from here:

Owing to continuing exploration, identified lithium resources have increased substantially worldwide and total about 80 million tons. Lithium resources in the United States—from continental brines, geothermal brines, hectorite, oilfield brines, and pegmatites—are 6.8 million tons.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mc...20-lithium.pdf

There is less than 300 million vehicles in the US. Some BEVs have large batteries like the 100-200 kW variety in the top tier Teslas, Cybertruck and Hummer and some have small batteries like the Golf EV, BMW i3, Nissan Leaf, etc that are sub 50 kW. Battery size in hybrids and hydrogen cars is typically sub 5 kW, which will likely exist alongside BEVs for decades. We also use lithium in batteries for grid storage, computers, phones, ceramics, etc, so our total resources won't go just to car batteries. Regardless, at 6.8 million tons, we currently have 13,600 million pounds of lithium that we know of in the US. That is enough lithium to give each car 45 pounds of pure lithium. How much lithium is in the average sized battery?

That number depends on who your asking. I have read that a 65 kW EV would have 22 pounds, but numbers vary. This prospect doesn't look good. Even if all batteries were recycled and 80% of the lithium could be recovered, then we still would need to find more reserves or do what America does best, which is use more of the world's resources than our fair share. At 80 million tons of lithium worldwide, that is 160,000 million pounds of lithium or 160 billion pounds, or 20 pounds of lithium per person, if the global population is 8 billion, which is barely enough for a Tesla for everyone. We would need to use smaller batteries in vehicles, different batteries that don't rely on lithium, find more lithium, shrink our population, etc to replace every vehicle with an EV.

Clearly, the world is doomed.

[Irace86.2.0]

It seems like Tesla plans to get lithium from clay, which might be different than the 80 million tons reported in the .gov article. Lithium, according to the presentation above, is so abundant that it isn't an issue to Elon Musk, especially if you believe his take on getting it easily from clay. I don't agree with this guy on a few points like his opinion that Tesla hasn't thoroughly explored lithium. Uhh, hell no. I'm sure they aren't just leaving out lithium from their product development, but every other element is under a microscope. It was an odd statement. Nevertheless, this was in interesting exchange.

Looks like the government is researching clay too.

https://www.usgs.gov/energy-and-mine...center_objects

More...

https://www.jadecove.com/research/teslasaltclay

News...more output and statements about lithium from clay...

https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...ction/78301845

https://www.reuters.com/article/albe...-idINL4N2JI2KS

[soundman98]

I'm more concerned about all the other metals that go into ex's. Copper ain't getting cheaper to name one.

There's been some headway on graphene batteries, just not at the scale for automotive use

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

I'm more concerned about all the other metals that go into ex's. Copper ain't getting cheaper to name one.

There's been some headway on graphene batteries, just not at the scale for automotive use

Tesla mentions cobalt, nickel and iron in the supercut of the battery day. They made a strong plan for the anode and cathode materials. They will be harvesting their own products and bringing materials to market in a much more efficient way right here in America.

Elon Musk was asked at one point how many gigafactories are needed to electrify the world. His answer was logarithmic when he said, ‘not ten and not a thousand’...’one hundred to two hundred.’ That was old. The new form factor of his factories means it is closer to the ten mark like when he said, “tera is the new giga.” The new factories will have a smaller footprint, but produce 10x the product or something.

[soundman98]

But that doesn't change the raw materials needed

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

https://carbuzz.com/news/evs-just-ou...rce=apple.news .... Norway, on the other hand, is banning sales of combustion cars as early as 2025. The country is already on track to achieve this target, too, because 54 percent of all new cars sold in Norway in 2020 were fully electric, up from 42.1 percent in 2019.

Norway has an easier task of it than the US does.

Not sure how much International driving Norway citizens do, but their country is only about the same sq miles as New Mexico, and is approximately 1000 miles x 260 miles at it's outside dimensions.

The average Norwegian drives about 21 miles a day, or 7,600 miles a year. That's less than half the US average, and only about 21% of what I drive per year.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Norway has an easier task of it than the US does.

Not sure how much International driving Norway citizens do, but their country is only about the same sq miles as New Mexico, and is approximately 1000 miles x 260 miles at it's outside dimensions.

The average Norwegian drives about 21 miles a day, or 7,600 miles a year. That's less than half the US average, and only about 21% of what I drive per year.

I'm missing your point about the size of Norway. If the article was about Colorado in stead of Norway then would it be different to you because it would be just as significant to me?

Doubling that to 50 miles a day isn't prohibitive for someone getting an EV, and are you saying no one drives far in Norway to commute? If someone had a level 2 charger at home then they could drive hundreds of miles a day. If they had a level 2 charger at work too then they could travel even further. If all someone had was a level 2 home charger on a Model 3 standard range plus at 263 miles of range, and they depleted the battery, then it would take 8.76 hours to fully charge the car. If someone owned the long range at 353 miles and had a 60 amp wall charger then they could charge the car in just 8 hours. We have chargers at work in our parking structure, so anyone commuting far to work has 8-12 hours to charge there.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I'm missing your point about the size of Norway. If the article was about Colorado in stead of Norway then would it be different to you because it would be just as significant to me?

I'm saying it's a much smaller geographic area, and the Norwegians tend to drive shorter distances, hence EVs make more sense in the short term. It's also easier to build a meaningful charging infrastructure for such a relatively small area than it is something the size of the US.

Can I use an EV and drive it for my extended commute? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US if I wanted to? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US the way I want to? No.

I regularly take day trips or weekend trips that exceed the range of even the best EVs. I don't believe I'm unique in that in the US. That is probably not nearly as likely for a Norwegian.

As I've said, I see the writing on the wall, and I'm good with it. It's just not something that is anywhere close to practical in the US in the next 4 years (blocking the sale of new ICE vehicles). It is very much so in Norway.

[Wally86]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

I'm missing your point about the size of Norway. If the article was about Colorado in stead of Norway then would it be different to you because it would be just as significant to me?

Doubling that to 50 miles a day isn't prohibitive for someone getting an EV, and are you saying no one drives far in Norway to commute? If someone had a level 2 charger at home then they could drive hundreds of miles a day. If they had a level 2 charger at work too then they could travel even further. If all someone had was a level 2 home charger on a Model 3 standard range plus at 263 miles of range, and they depleted the battery, then it would take 8.76 hours to fully charge the car. If someone owned the long range at 353 miles and had a 60 amp wall charger then they could charge the car in just 8 hours. We have chargers at work in our parking structure, so anyone commuting far to work has 8-12 hours to charge there.

I think he's saying it's apples and oranges because no one in norway is taking a 3000 mile road trip across the country for fun. I've driven from maine to miami and from maryland to california and back. I can't imagine how many days would have been added to my trip to make it happen. Granted, I know the Tesla would tell me exactly which super charger to drive to and for how long i'd need to be there but I can't imagine making my 41 hours trip from palm springs to annapolis again with electric cars where they're at. Not quite. We're almost there though.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I'm saying it's a much smaller geographic area, and the Norwegians tend to drive shorter distances, hence EVs make more sense in the short term. It's also easier to build a meaningful charging infrastructure for such a relatively small area than it is something the size of the US.

Can I use an EV and drive it for my extended commute? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US if I wanted to? Yes.
Could I drive an EV across the US the way I want to? No.

I regularly take day trips or weekend trips that exceed the range of even the best EVs. I don't believe I'm unique in that in the US. That is probably not nearly as likely for a Norwegian.

As I've said, I see the writing on the wall, and I'm good with it. It's just not something that is anywhere close to practical in the US in the next 4 years (blocking the sale of new ICE vehicles). It is very much so in Norway.

Ahh, so I hear what you are saying. I get what you are trying to argue, but I disagree. I thought maybe you were implying something else.

The difference between driving 21 miles a day average in Norway vs 30 miles a day in the US, or even 50 miles a day, isn't significant enough to suggest EVs are any more practical in Norway versus the US or even parts of the US like California.

As you can see below, Norway is about 80% of the size of California, but it has 5.5 million people vs 37 million, so electrifying California would actually be easier than Norway because of population density, financial resources, manpower, etc. Their population density doesn't seem particularly high compared to other areas of Europe, so Norway doesn't look unique to me.

Norwegians average more vacation days than workers in the US, so who knows if they do road trips often to visit parts of Europe. They probably fly more than drive, but I don't know the statistics on road trips.

https://www.newsinenglish.no/2014/07...ns-on-holiday/

I think when we look at several age groups and the gender difference, we see that many people average far less miles, so a large number of age groups and many females in all age groups could probably drive EVs.



Other countries may not be capable of transitioning to all EVs for new car sales by 2025, but they could make huge improvements with tax incentives and fees like Norway. EV sales in the US made up just 2% of total car sales, which leaves a lot of room for improvement.

Originally Posted by Wally86

I think he's saying it's apples and oranges because no one in norway is taking a 3000 mile road trip across the country for fun. I've driven from maine to miami and from maryland to california and back. I can't imagine how many days would have been added to my trip to make it happen. Granted, I know the Tesla would tell me exactly which super charger to drive to and for how long i'd need to be there but I can't imagine making my 41 hours trip from palm springs to annapolis again with electric cars where they're at. Not quite. We're almost there though.

You don't think anyone is traveling from Norway to all over Europe? I know Europe has a lot more public transportation options, so it might be less common to use a personal vehicle, but I'm sure people do that, and with so many places in Europe to stop, destination charging would make the trip reasonable enough.

We have a far way to go to get to 100% new car sales being EVs from the current 2%. Realistically, we could go to 50-60% new car sales being EVs, and no one would have to modify their driving.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Norway has an easier task of it than the US does.

Not sure how much International driving Norway citizens do, but their country is only about the same sq miles as New Mexico, and is approximately 1000 miles x 260 miles at it's outside dimensions.

The average Norwegian drives about 21 miles a day, or 7,600 miles a year. That's less than half the US average, and only about 21% of what I drive per year.

i mentioned it last time that this came up, but norway subsidized the hell out of ev's when their government made the desicsion to push for an electric future.they also heavily invested in a charging network(here in the US, we can't get past arguing whose responsibility it is to install even a few stations), not to mention that vehicle taxes/tarriffs are extremely expensive there, and were waived for ev's. iirc, a base model golf starts at $50-60k...

the american equivalent would be "buy any ev, you don't pay any property taxes for 5 years". for most people there, it was was financially stupid not to buy any ev over any ice.

when one reads into it, their ev take rate had less to do with what the people wanted, and everything to do with what the government subsidized.

[Kodename47]

Originally Posted by soundman98

when one reads into it, their ev take rate had less to do with what the people wanted, and everything to do with what the government subsidized.

Indeed. Here in the UK the cost of the car includes a £3k government subsidy, it was £5k but has dropped. If you have a company car, then you don't pay tax on it, compared to around 20% (CO2 dependent) for a full ICE car.

Us Brits like to commute, Covid withstanding, but the company car tax Benefit In Kind makes an EV mighty attractive as a company provided vehicle.

[Wally86]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

You don't think anyone is traveling from Norway to all over Europe? I know Europe has a lot more public transportation options, so it might be less common to use a personal vehicle, but I'm sure people do that, and with so many places in Europe to stop, destination charging would make the trip reasonable enough.

We have a far way to go to get to 100% new car sales being EVs from the current 2%. Realistically, we could go to 50-60% new car sales being EVs, and no one would have to modify their driving.

I've lived in plenty of places in europe and asia and every takes trains to go any kind of long distances. Heck, even some short distance trips were easier by train than car. It's just a different style of living on the other side of the earth.

You sure love rebuttals and not changing your mind