How long 2nd Gen will be in production?

[alone1i]

Can we expect this 2nd generation will have the same production life-span like 1st gen which is roughly 8 years?

[PulsarBeeerz]

Probably depends on how hard the governments push tighter emissions and the EV switch over. A solid 5-6 years I'd wager.

[Yoshoobaroo]

Toyota said every one of their cars will be electrified by 2025, so there’s one data point.

Even if they mean every new model introduced after 2025, that means this gen is the last ICE 86, maybe we’ll get a hybrid after that but it could just be the end of the model too.

Subaru isn’t selling the BRZ in Europe anymore, and Toyota said it’s only there for 2022 and 2023 model years. Euro 7 standards go into effect in 2025, which is likely the last standard before a zero emissions target is levied against all new cars. I’d expect car companies putting next to no effort into developing ICE cars starting ~now.

My guess is we won’t see new ICE models starting in 2025, and the existing ICE-only models in the lineup will disappear completely by ~2030. I think by then the only new ICE cars you’ll be able to buy will be boutique offerings like Porsche’s 911 which will come with a subscription plan for zero-emissions Porsche fuel.

[wbradley]

Is there a place in these cars to put a small hybrid battery? Subaru does have their e-boxer which could be installed in the twins by that time. Might be closer to 50/50 f/r weight but there will be almost zero trunk space.

Or if it doesn't affect some other technicality, replace the back seat area with a small battery pack. That gets them a few more years from the model if they want. It all depends on demand.

[Yoshoobaroo]

Originally Posted by wbradley

Is there a place in these cars to put a small hybrid battery? Subaru does have their e-boxer which could be installed in the twins by that time. Might be closer to 50/50 f/r weight but there will be almost zero trunk space.

You could fit a battery in the trunk, a tiny one like the Honda Fit hybrid.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Yoshoobaroo

Toyota said every one of their cars will be electrified by 2025, so there’s one data point.

Even if they mean every new model introduced after 2025, that means this gen is the last ICE 86, maybe we’ll get a hybrid after that but it could just be the end of the model too.

Subaru isn’t selling the BRZ in Europe anymore, and Toyota said it’s only there for 2022 and 2023 model years. Euro 7 standards go into effect in 2025, which is likely the last standard before a zero emissions target is levied against all new cars. I’d expect car companies putting next to no effort into developing ICE cars starting ~now.

My guess is we won’t see new ICE models starting in 2025, and the existing ICE-only models in the lineup will disappear completely by ~2030. I think by then the only new ICE cars you’ll be able to buy will be boutique offerings like Porsche’s 911 which will come with a subscription plan for zero-emissions Porsche fuel.

Technically Toyota didn't say they wouldn't have any pure ICE by 2025 only that they would introduce up to 70 new models of battery-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, and gas-electric hybrids by 2025, but as you say it's a data point. I'd agree that the GEN2 probably has a 5 to 8 year lifespan.

BTW, as an aside, when I read your post online I only see the first two paragraphs. Everything above starting with "Subaru isn't selling" is missing until I quote it. Very odd.

EDIT: Even odder, now that @wbradley made a follow-up post your whole post is showing.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by wbradley

Is there a place in these cars to put a small hybrid battery? Subaru does have their e-boxer which could be installed in the twins by that time. Might be closer to 50/50 f/r weight but there will be almost zero trunk space.

Or if it doesn't affect some other technicality, replace the back seat area with a small battery pack. That gets them a few more years from the model if they want. It all depends on demand.

Toyota is saying all their new cars will be based on the new platform developed with Subaru, so I doubt they would do a retrofit. If the 86 survives it will be a different car on a different platform.

[wbradley]

Akio Toyoda told an auto industry summit that eliminating ICE production would cost Japan 5,000,000 jobs iirc. Plus the petroleum industry doesn't expect to lose most of their demand to fuel new generation vehicles over a short period. The world's power grids cannot support that yet either.
Hybrid tech is a nice middle ground and also will allow electricity infrastructure to build up for future demand where necessary through green forms of generation. The downfall to hybrid that it isn't efficient to recover the metals from the batteries presently. I read that a battery electric middle range vehicle's batteries contains approx. 22 lbs of Lithium. The price of lithium or its alternatives could skyrocket over time. Which brings us back to hydrogen fuel cells, when we reach a point where there is ample clean generated electricity to maintain a sizeable infrastructure.

[Tcoat]

Normally the parts orders cover a set number of cars over a 3 year contract. It can cost the car companies big dollars to go over or under that set number of parts. Yes, it costs them to go UNDER since the price was set for X quantity and they will pay for that quantity whether they use them or not.

Except...

The contract will allow them to go under quantity in the case of "unusual circumstances mutually agreed to by both parties". The parts shortages lately have been accepted as unusual so the companies can make as few as they want without penalty.

So...

I would expect to see the second gen run for 3 years while those contracts play out. How many of them they actually make may be a different matter though since they will use the available resources for their bread and butter profit cars. Beyond that 3 years then the conditions that Yosho mentioned start to kick in and what that means is anybody's guess at this point.

[Blighty]

Depends on how Japans own efforts at synthetic fuels go.

But I don't see any more affordable cars comming down the line in ICE even if that works out.

[StE92ve]

Originally Posted by wbradley

Akio Toyoda told an auto industry summit that eliminating ICE production would cost Japan 5,000,000 jobs iirc. Plus the petroleum industry doesn't expect to lose most of their demand to fuel new generation vehicles over a short period. The world's power grids cannot support that yet either.
Hybrid tech is a nice middle ground and also will allow electricity infrastructure to build up for future demand where necessary through green forms of generation. The downfall to hybrid that it isn't efficient to recover the metals from the batteries presently. I read that a battery electric middle range vehicle's batteries contains approx. 22 lbs of Lithium. The price of lithium or its alternatives could skyrocket over time. Which brings us back to hydrogen fuel cells, when we reach a point where there is ample clean generated electricity to maintain a sizeable infrastructure.

Won't be long now.....

[Tokay444]

7

[TommyW]

Well if all cars need to be EVs by 25 they'd better figure out some breakthrough alternate energy pretty damn fast.

[jvincent]

I think the most aggressive date I have heard for a ban on sales of ICE cars is 2035. Given transition timing requirements gasoline will be available for a while.

Some manufacturers have committed to dates a couple of years earlier to have a fully EV product offering.

Sure it will suck if they discontinue the twins earlier than 2030 but it will have been a fun ride. I'll certainly be watching the news as we approach 2030.