03-17-2021, 12:46 PM | #71 | |
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Lidar has come down in size and price a lot, so it would be helpful to have it as a backup system, but it is not necessary, and it adds another level of complexity or system that can fail. All humans use is vision to drive with some auditory and other sensory input. We don’t have lidar or radar, and we do fine when we are attentive and not under the influence or not too far over the hill. Visual acuity to drive is 20/40 in both eyes and at least 20/40 in one eye and at least 20/70 in the other, and the average adult can’t tell the difference between 720p and 1080p at a standard viewing distance, so high camera resolution isn’t necessary.
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03-17-2021, 12:56 PM | #72 | ||
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Musk recently said that full self driving feature he's currently selling will be largely unchanged when it goes full scale from what it is now, a advanced driver assist which is what it is. That isn't full self driving. It doesn't seem like the current FSD feature will result in actual full self driving on currently sold cars without significant upgrades. People buying cars today may have beta cars that can't use the finished feature. Pulled a quote from here https://www.google.com/amp/s/arstech...iving/%3famp=1 Quote:
I read Tesla was considering charging a service fee for the beta rather than a flat rate. Makes a lot more sense that way so you don't end up spending 10k for fancy cruise control on a old Tesla. It's a opt in - opt out service. |
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03-17-2021, 01:22 PM | #73 | |
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I appreciate you admitting this is all theory and conjecture—that people are fear mongering without any tangible evidence to justify it.
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03-17-2021, 02:00 PM | #74 | |
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Ultimately I don't think FSD is a bad thing, I just don't think the human should be completely eliminated from control. It should be a symbiotic relationship, not an all or nothing. I will not ever own a vehicle where I cannot ultimately take control of it if should I choose to or feel it necessary. I also will not pay a huge fee for FSD, there is no where close to $10,000 worth of value in it for me. YMMV, of course.
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03-17-2021, 02:00 PM | #75 | ||
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No where in the article did it mention Musk saying what you claim Musk said about the system being largely unchanged. What upgrades will the car need because Musk has said that soon the system wouldn’t even need its radars, let alone lidar, and he said it will just rely on video/visual systems? They will claim level 2 officially for legal reasons until the end. It is plain as day in the quote below from your article. How do you have a level 4 or 5 system available and move through these three levels? Quote:
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03-17-2021, 02:22 PM | #76 | |
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Depending on the future, you may or may not have much of a choice unless you drive older vehicles and legislators don’t mandate anything, but I wouldn’t be surprised if level 4/5 autonomy is seen no worse than getting into a taxi or bus with a stranger.
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03-17-2021, 02:25 PM | #77 |
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I assume you are referring to the video? If so, I would say its 2.5 to 2.9, but not quite 3 strictly based on the video.
To be a 3, I would have to see evidence of the "environmental detection capabilities" such as being able to compensate for blinding rain, sleet, snow, or what I would consider the harshest conditions I've ever driven in, a blizzard with lightning. At minimum it should detect a condition it can't drive in and not engage. Maybe it does, I just don't know. If it does, I might give it a 3. Here's where I struggle. The difference between 4 and 5. 4 says "Human override is still an option". 5 excludes that which means to be override is NOT possible. What additional value does that bring?
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03-17-2021, 02:29 PM | #78 | |
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My 3 year old Granddaughter on the other hand...
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03-17-2021, 03:18 PM | #79 | ||
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I will take a look at the bottom part of your post with the video later this evening. Regarding current software update Quote:
Will a 2020 Tesla model 3 that you buy today and spend 10k on a non refundable FSD beta be 100% inclusive to the finished result if that includes mechanical upgrades? If so then great. Tesla tells you on their site they will provide free software updates. They don't mention any inclusion of a mechanical update. They are confident their current hardware is enough, but is it actually? Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Based on his current estimation that current systems are not does not inspire confidence. Especially where I live where half the year it snows and your car is a salty mess. It would be impossible to keep sensors/cameras clean to function properly. Making it a seasonal feature. |
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03-17-2021, 03:34 PM | #80 | |
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It brings a huge amount of value already discussed, especially to corporations.
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03-17-2021, 03:58 PM | #81 | |
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What extra hardware is needed? I am aware of no other required hardware. If you can drive a car using vision then a computer could do the same. What’s different? Any additional technologies like radar or lidar or whatever will only enhance the abilities beyond human abilities, but that isn’t necessary for level 4/5 autonomy. And the cameras could be inside and outside the car and in multiple locations, which already improves over the driver’s single field of view, so snow or any other weather condition shouldn’t pose any other issue.
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03-17-2021, 04:53 PM | #82 | |
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The only way to run the experiment to see if it matters would be for Tesla to change the names from AutoPilot and Full Self Driving to something less misleading and see what happens. I don't think calling it 'beta' makes it acceptable. To extend @RToyo86's great cereal analogy, would it be OK for a company to sell oleander calling it "Guaranteed COVID Cure - beta", with small print on the bottom of the bottle 'not actually a COVID cure'? I'm not an SAE engineer. If the SAE says it's Level 2, I believe them. But the average consumer isn't going to parse the differences between 'Full Self Driving Level 3' or 'Full Self Driving Level 4'. The plain English wording 'Full Self Driving' promises just that - full self driving. Which, according to the much more qualified people at the SAE, it isn't. I'm not a Californian, so I don't cut Musk any slack as some kind of 'home town hero'. Around half of all Teslas are sold in California, so I can understand some local zealotry. He's the CEO of a company whose products and marketing can impact people far beyond just Tesla buyers. Such as, whoever might happen to get run into by a Tesla because the owner thought Full Self Driving would, as the name says, 'self drive'. Like any other CEO, he needs to be responsible and held accountable for his actions. Musk is under tremendous pressure, from shareholders and himself, to keep the stock price bubble going. Tesla stock today is selling for an astonishing P/E of 1,097, compared to GM's 14. At that valuation, Tesla is being valued at 1,097 years worth of earnings. Most of Musk's net worth is tied up in Tesla stock. It's selling at those valuations not based on any financial metrics, but purely on emotion. He needs to keep the hype up, otherwise the stock price could collapse. People in that situation can do astonishing things to keep it going (I know, I worked for someone like that). One way or the other, corrective factors will be applied. If Tesla doesn't police its own marketing, or if the NHTSA doesn't regulate them, then they might be evaluated the way that usually happens in this country - by lawyers. If enough accidents happen that someone (or a survivor's family) gets angry enough, it all might get decided in a court. The way most things are done in the U.S. of A. It would just be tragic if it took a body count to make it happen. https://www.wlns.com/news/tesla-on-a...ar-in-lansing/ It's pointless to dissuade anyone from their gods or heroes (easy for me since I have neither), and isn't my intention. Let's agree to having different viewpoints, and I thank you and everyone for the stimulating ideas and exchanges. |
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03-17-2021, 08:25 PM | #83 | |
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The cereal and COVID analogies are false analogies. I already addressed your analogy and his analogy. You are being a literalist. I fear for the salesman who sells you an “Off-Road” truck that doesn’t work in all off road locations or that has a 4WD system that turns off when it overheats like someone else mentioned. The rest is just off topic conjecture and doesn’t advance your argument.
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03-17-2021, 11:08 PM | #84 |
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To answer the questions earlier about the video you linked, it looked to me like a 2.5. it's impressive a car can do that, but every condition in the video looked perfect. Daylight, clear weather, not much traffic, very open smooth roads with gentle curves. I Don't know of any roads within 200km of me that look like that. I am picturing my current commute to work which involves mostly highway and wouldn't have confidence the system would get through the construction bits in place as the city is putting a train infrastructure in place.
This Channel does a lot of real world conditions which is interesting. Seems like it is far off a 3 but still impressive if I remove the term "FSD" from my brain. Still too sketchy for me watching the video not trusting what the car is going to do. I wouldn't spend a dime to try It, maybe if it was free. He did a drive on wet winter roads with a bit if slush on parts of the road. Definitely a 2 here. Has moments where it works, then others where it literally tries to drive into snow bank, it can't judge the conditions and adjust speed. That isn't even taking into consideration snow on the ground where it won't see lines on the road or curbs. |
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