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Old 03-17-2021, 12:46 PM   #71
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I know little about this sort of tech overall. Lidar from my understanding is quite expensive at the moment, but seems to have some advantages over Tesla's camera system. If they can advance the tech fast enough that would in theory push the costs down.

Computers and software work great until they don't. Mainly where my skepticism lies on overcomplicating things.

assuming this will be quite niche in the early phases I can see this working in warm climates with more consistent weather all year round. At this point we're are barely in its infancy phase so it's a lot of what ifs.
Not really in its infancy. FSD cars are already in operation around the world. If that is your definition of infancy then yes, it is in its infancy. It also isn’t niche. This will spread very, very rapidly, especially in industry.

Lidar has come down in size and price a lot, so it would be helpful to have it as a backup system, but it is not necessary, and it adds another level of complexity or system that can fail. All humans use is vision to drive with some auditory and other sensory input. We don’t have lidar or radar, and we do fine when we are attentive and not under the influence or not too far over the hill. Visual acuity to drive is 20/40 in both eyes and at least 20/40 in one eye and at least 20/70 in the other, and the average adult can’t tell the difference between 720p and 1080p at a standard viewing distance, so high camera resolution isn’t necessary.
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Old 03-17-2021, 12:56 PM   #72
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It is literally a FSD beta. It is FSD. IT IS FSD!!! I don’t know how many times I have to repeat myself. The analogy is off. It isn’t a box of...rocks...labeled a box of cereal, or something. It is a box of cereal with a recipe that is still being perfected, but once it is available on the shelf, it will be a normal box of cereal.

Would it make you feel better if Tesla hired thousands of people to perfect FSD beta on the road instead of allowing users who are being monitored?

So far this thread has been full of theory and conjecture. Does anybody have any data to show Autopilot or FSD beta is responsible for an avoidable crash that involved injury to another vehicle’s occupants or to a pedestrian, but more specifically, that the incidence of these events is greater than these events without Autopilot or FSD beta?
Tesla's use of the term beta is quite loose when attached with Full - self - driving. Considering its closer to current cruise control than any form of fully atonomous system.

Musk recently said that full self driving feature he's currently selling will be largely unchanged when it goes full scale from what it is now, a advanced driver assist which is what it is. That isn't full self driving.

It doesn't seem like the current FSD feature will result in actual full self driving on currently sold cars without significant upgrades. People buying cars today may have beta cars that can't use the finished feature.

Pulled a quote from here
https://www.google.com/amp/s/arstech...iving/%3famp=1
Quote:
Tesla acknowledged that it needs more sophisticated systems for handling the "static objects, road debris, emergency vehicles, construction zones
If these systems are more than software then it's never going to be FSD on cars sold today. Does Tesla plan to allow you to keep that 10k feature with you should you need a new Tesla to run the fully atonomous feature?

I read Tesla was considering charging a service fee for the beta rather than a flat rate. Makes a lot more sense that way so you don't end up spending 10k for fancy cruise control on a old Tesla. It's a opt in - opt out service.
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Old 03-17-2021, 01:22 PM   #73
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So then, you are agreeing Tesla is misrepresenting their product, except you are saying they are underselling it? Didn't this start because Musk was quoted as saying FSD wasn't really FSD?

Yes, because Tesla would be fully responsible for any mishaps and couldn't sluff it off as "oh those wacky users, you know, they didn't act like we said they should"

Pretty much any accident where Autopilot/FSD is engaged is potentially one that could have been avoided. That's pretty much true for any accident regardless of driven, self-driven, or on a bus.

By the same token, we do not have statistics on how many potential accidents were avoided because the human driver took action to avoid it. I personally experience the situation once or twice a week.

I don't really trust the statistics yet on self-driving, but I do believe ultimately it will be safer. Right now though the small number of testers, while statistically significant, do not represent all the scenarios where accidents occur. The "human" statistics include all weather and road conditions, FSD stats do not.

I suppose it's possible they are peeling the onion back a bit and limiting human stats to similar conditions but I have not seen evidence of that.
Again, I’ll restate: it is FSD beta. It is a name for a set of driving abilities called FSD. It is not released to the fleet. It is being trialed by a limited group of users. Call them private contractors getting paid through the ability to access exclusive technology. By autonomy standards, it is not currently being officially or legally touted as level 4 or level 5, but the system is a fully autonomous system, so whether those ability qualify today, a month from now or a year from now as level 4 or level 5 “full self driving” officially, doesn’t change the fact that the system is a full autonomous system. Autopilot is a separate suite of distinct features, so distinguishing the two makes sense, and it is most accurate to call the system FSD by branding. The system will only be adding depth to its abilities, no different than an adult driver maturing their abilities at 40 years old versus how they were at 20. Both still have sufficient competency. What would you have them call the system now, so the naming system sits well with you?

I appreciate you admitting this is all theory and conjecture—that people are fear mongering without any tangible evidence to justify it.
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Old 03-17-2021, 02:00 PM   #74
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I appreciate you admitting this is all theory and conjecture—that people are fear mongering without any tangible evidence to justify it.
Hah, yea like I said you and only differ on some of the finer points, and I think you trust the FSD stats more than I do.

Ultimately I don't think FSD is a bad thing, I just don't think the human should be completely eliminated from control. It should be a symbiotic relationship, not an all or nothing.

I will not ever own a vehicle where I cannot ultimately take control of it if should I choose to or feel it necessary. I also will not pay a huge fee for FSD, there is no where close to $10,000 worth of value in it for me.

YMMV, of course.
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Old 03-17-2021, 02:00 PM   #75
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Tesla's use of the term beta is quite loose when attached with Full - self - driving. Considering its closer to current cruise control than any form of fully atonomous system.

Musk recently said that full self driving feature he's currently selling will be largely unchanged when it goes full scale from what it is now, a advanced driver assist which is what it is. That isn't full self driving.

It doesn't seem like the current FSD feature will result in actual full self driving on currently sold cars without significant upgrades. People buying cars today may have beta cars that can't use the finished feature.

Pulled a quote from here
https://www.google.com/amp/s/arstech...iving/%3famp=1

If these systems are more than software then it's never going to be FSD on cars sold today. Does Tesla plan to allow you to keep that 10k feature with you should you need a new Tesla to run the fully atonomous feature?

I read Tesla was considering charging a service fee for the beta rather than a flat rate. Makes a lot more sense that way so you don't end up spending 10k for fancy cruise control on a old Tesla. It's a opt in - opt out service.
It’ll not be beta when it is available to the whole fleet. If it gets released to everyone as a beta, especially if it is released without anyone being subject to losing the feature, then that is problematic, but at this time, it is just a beta system released to select users.

No where in the article did it mention Musk saying what you claim Musk said about the system being largely unchanged. What upgrades will the car need because Musk has said that soon the system wouldn’t even need its radars, let alone lidar, and he said it will just rely on video/visual systems? They will claim level 2 officially for legal reasons until the end. It is plain as day in the quote below from your article. How do you have a level 4 or 5 system available and move through these three levels?

Quote:
"There's three steps to self-driving," Musk told Tesla investors at the event. "There's being feature complete. Then there's being feature complete to the degree where we think the person in the car does not need to pay attention. And then there's being at a reliability level where we also convince regulators that that is true."
What would you call this by name and by level of autonomy?



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Old 03-17-2021, 02:22 PM   #76
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Hah, yea like I said you and only differ on some of the finer points, and I think you trust the FSD stats more than I do.

Ultimately I don't think FSD is a bad thing, I just don't think the human should be completely eliminated from control. It should be a symbiotic relationship, not a all or nothing.

I will not ever own a vehicle where I cannot ultimately take control of it if should I choose to or feel it necessary. I also will not pay a huge fee for FSD, there is no where close to $10,000 worth of value in it for me.

YMMV, of course.
Early adopters always pay a premium for the product. It’ll be super cheap and ubiquitous in the future no different than ABS, traction control, VSC, back up cameras, TVs, phones, etc...I can list stuff forever.

Depending on the future, you may or may not have much of a choice unless you drive older vehicles and legislators don’t mandate anything, but I wouldn’t be surprised if level 4/5 autonomy is seen no worse than getting into a taxi or bus with a stranger.
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Old 03-17-2021, 02:25 PM   #77
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What would you call this by name and by level of autonomy?
I assume you are referring to the video? If so, I would say its 2.5 to 2.9, but not quite 3 strictly based on the video.

To be a 3, I would have to see evidence of the "environmental detection capabilities" such as being able to compensate for blinding rain, sleet, snow, or what I would consider the harshest conditions I've ever driven in, a blizzard with lightning. At minimum it should detect a condition it can't drive in and not engage. Maybe it does, I just don't know. If it does, I might give it a 3.

Here's where I struggle. The difference between 4 and 5. 4 says "Human override is still an option". 5 excludes that which means to be override is NOT possible.

What additional value does that bring?
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Old 03-17-2021, 02:29 PM   #78
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Depending on the future, you may or may not have much of a choice unless you drive older vehicles and legislators don’t mandate anything, but I wouldn’t be surprised if level 4/5 autonomy is seen no worse than getting into a taxi or bus with a stranger.
I probably have the "good fortune" to be old enough that it's unlikely it will be mandated in my lifetime, at least while I still care. It would have to happen in the next 20 to 30 years, and with autos, it takes that long for enough cars to cycle out of the system for it to reach that level.

My 3 year old Granddaughter on the other hand...
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Old 03-17-2021, 03:18 PM   #79
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It’ll not be beta when it is available to the whole fleet. If it gets released to everyone as a beta, especially if it is released without anyone being subject to losing the feature, then that is problematic, but at this time, it is just a beta system released to select users.

No where in the article did it mention Musk saying what you claim Musk said about the system being largely unchanged. What upgrades will the car need because Musk has said that soon the system wouldn’t even need its radars, let alone lidar, and he said it will just rely on video/visual systems. They will claim level 2 officially for legal reasons until the end. It is plain as day in the quote below from your article. How do you have a level 4 or 5 system available and move through these three levels?



What would you call this by name and by level of autonomy?




I will take a look at the bottom part of your post with the video later this evening.



Regarding current software update
Quote:
In its first response, sent in November, Tesla emphasized that the beta software had limited functionality. Tesla told state regulators that the software is "not capable of recognizing or responding" to "static objects and road debris, emergency vehicles, construction zones, large uncontrolled intersections with multiple incoming ways, occlusions, adverse weather, complicated or adversarial vehicles in the driving path, and unmapped roads."


In a December follow-up, Tesla added that "we expect the functionality to remain largely unchanged in a future, full release to the customer fleet." Tesla added that "we do not expect significant enhancements" that would "shift the responsibility for the entire dynamic driving task to the system." The system "will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature."
I am skeptical Tesla's current mechanical hardware will be what is used when FSD is achieved.
Will a 2020 Tesla model 3 that you buy today and spend 10k on a non refundable FSD beta be 100% inclusive to the finished result if that includes mechanical upgrades?

If so then great. Tesla tells you on their site they will provide free software updates. They don't mention any inclusion of a mechanical update.

They are confident their current hardware is enough, but is it actually?
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Based on his current estimation that current systems are not does not inspire confidence.

Especially where I live where half the year it snows and your car is a salty mess. It would be impossible to keep sensors/cameras clean to function properly. Making it a seasonal feature.
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Old 03-17-2021, 03:34 PM   #80
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I assume you are referring to the video? If so, I would say its 2.5 to 2.9, but not quite 3 strictly based on the video.

To be a 3, I would have to see evidence of the "environmental detection capabilities" such as being able to compensate for blinding rain, sleet, snow, or what I would consider the harshest conditions I've ever driven in, a blizzard with lightning. At minimum it should detect a condition it can't drive in and not engage. Maybe it does, I just don't know. If it does, I might give it a 3.

Here's where I struggle. The difference between 4 and 5. 4 says "Human override is still an option". 5 excludes that which means to be override is NOT possible.

What additional value does that bring?
There are many other videos worth considering, so you can judge for yourself. The system was at minimum a level 3 in the previous video, having to delay taking off from the stop sign because of another car, but it is unclear what the difference is between 3 and 4. I know the system can change lanes, pass slow drivers, avoid obstacles, etc. The video from China of AutoX robotaxi is clearly level 4. I don’t know if it is geofenced to the city because they lidar scanned only the city. I don’t think FSD will be geofenced because it isn’t lidar dependent, so it will go anywhere with GPS that has been mapped. It may or may not be able to retrace a location that is off-road too. I don’t know how adaptable lidar is for mapping novel places, but it seems like most systems are trying to pre-map areas using lidar and then log everything to understand the environment, which may or may not be used to teach the system. Musk has said it was used as a crutch more than an aid, but it could be used as an aid or learning tool, more than just a way to catalogue what is new in a previously mapped environment.



It brings a huge amount of value already discussed, especially to corporations.
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Old 03-17-2021, 03:58 PM   #81
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I will take a look at the bottom part of your post with the video later this evening.



Regarding current software update


I am skeptical Tesla's current mechanical hardware will be what is used when FSD is achieved.
Will a 2020 Tesla model 3 that you buy today and spend 10k on a non refundable FSD beta be 100% inclusive to the finished result if that includes mechanical upgrades?

If so then great. Tesla tells you on their site they will provide free software updates. They don't mention any inclusion of a mechanical update.

They are confident their current hardware is enough, but is it actually?
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Based on his current estimation that current systems are not does not inspire confidence.

Especially where I live where half the year it snows and your car is a salty mess. It would be impossible to keep sensors/cameras clean to function properly. Making it a seasonal feature.
You said Musk, but now you are quoting Tesla. There is a distinct difference.

What extra hardware is needed? I am aware of no other required hardware. If you can drive a car using vision then a computer could do the same. What’s different? Any additional technologies like radar or lidar or whatever will only enhance the abilities beyond human abilities, but that isn’t necessary for level 4/5 autonomy. And the cameras could be inside and outside the car and in multiple locations, which already improves over the driver’s single field of view, so snow or any other weather condition shouldn’t pose any other issue.
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Old 03-17-2021, 04:53 PM   #82
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You are overly fixated on the name with no evidence that changing it matters.
The opposite could also be said - there is no evidence that changing the name to something more realistic and responsible wouldn't matter.

The only way to run the experiment to see if it matters would be for Tesla to change the names from AutoPilot and Full Self Driving to something less misleading and see what happens.

I don't think calling it 'beta' makes it acceptable. To extend @RToyo86's great cereal analogy, would it be OK for a company to sell oleander calling it "Guaranteed COVID Cure - beta", with small print on the bottom of the bottle 'not actually a COVID cure'?

I'm not an SAE engineer. If the SAE says it's Level 2, I believe them. But the average consumer isn't going to parse the differences between 'Full Self Driving Level 3' or 'Full Self Driving Level 4'. The plain English wording 'Full Self Driving' promises just that - full self driving. Which, according to the much more qualified people at the SAE, it isn't.

I'm not a Californian, so I don't cut Musk any slack as some kind of 'home town hero'. Around half of all Teslas are sold in California, so I can understand some local zealotry. He's the CEO of a company whose products and marketing can impact people far beyond just Tesla buyers. Such as, whoever might happen to get run into by a Tesla because the owner thought Full Self Driving would, as the name says, 'self drive'. Like any other CEO, he needs to be responsible and held accountable for his actions.

Musk is under tremendous pressure, from shareholders and himself, to keep the stock price bubble going. Tesla stock today is selling for an astonishing P/E of 1,097, compared to GM's 14. At that valuation, Tesla is being valued at 1,097 years worth of earnings. Most of Musk's net worth is tied up in Tesla stock. It's selling at those valuations not based on any financial metrics, but purely on emotion. He needs to keep the hype up, otherwise the stock price could collapse. People in that situation can do astonishing things to keep it going (I know, I worked for someone like that).

One way or the other, corrective factors will be applied. If Tesla doesn't police its own marketing, or if the NHTSA doesn't regulate them, then they might be evaluated the way that usually happens in this country - by lawyers. If enough accidents happen that someone (or a survivor's family) gets angry enough, it all might get decided in a court. The way most things are done in the U.S. of A. It would just be tragic if it took a body count to make it happen.

https://www.wlns.com/news/tesla-on-a...ar-in-lansing/

It's pointless to dissuade anyone from their gods or heroes (easy for me since I have neither), and isn't my intention. Let's agree to having different viewpoints, and I thank you and everyone for the stimulating ideas and exchanges.
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Old 03-17-2021, 08:25 PM   #83
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The opposite could also be said - there is no evidence that changing the name to something more realistic and responsible wouldn't matter.

The only way to run the experiment to see if it matters would be for Tesla to change the names from AutoPilot and Full Self Driving to something less misleading and see what happens.

I don't think calling it 'beta' makes it acceptable. To extend @RToyo86's great cereal analogy, would it be OK for a company to sell oleander calling it "Guaranteed COVID Cure - beta", with small print on the bottom of the bottle 'not actually a COVID cure'?

I'm not an SAE engineer. If the SAE says it's Level 2, I believe them. But the average consumer isn't going to parse the differences between 'Full Self Driving Level 3' or 'Full Self Driving Level 4'. The plain English wording 'Full Self Driving' promises just that - full self driving. Which, according to the much more qualified people at the SAE, it isn't.

I'm not a Californian, so I don't cut Musk any slack as some kind of 'home town hero'. Around half of all Teslas are sold in California, so I can understand some local zealotry. He's the CEO of a company whose products and marketing can impact people far beyond just Tesla buyers. Such as, whoever might happen to get run into by a Tesla because the owner thought Full Self Driving would, as the name says, 'self drive'. Like any other CEO, he needs to be responsible and held accountable for his actions.

Musk is under tremendous pressure, from shareholders and himself, to keep the stock price bubble going. Tesla stock today is selling for an astonishing P/E of 1,097, compared to GM's 14. At that valuation, Tesla is being valued at 1,097 years worth of earnings. Most of Musk's net worth is tied up in Tesla stock. It's selling at those valuations not based on any financial metrics, but purely on emotion. He needs to keep the hype up, otherwise the stock price could collapse. People in that situation can do astonishing things to keep it going (I know, I worked for someone like that).

One way or the other, corrective factors will be applied. If Tesla doesn't police its own marketing, or if the NHTSA doesn't regulate them, then they might be evaluated the way that usually happens in this country - by lawyers. If enough accidents happen that someone (or a survivor's family) gets angry enough, it all might get decided in a court. The way most things are done in the U.S. of A. It would just be tragic if it took a body count to make it happen.

https://www.wlns.com/news/tesla-on-a...ar-in-lansing/

It's pointless to dissuade anyone from their gods or heroes (easy for me since I have neither), and isn't my intention. Let's agree to having different viewpoints, and I thank you and everyone for the stimulating ideas and exchanges.
You make a claim: unicorns exist. I counter that there is no evidence that supports your claim. You follow up: but you haven’t proven there are no unicorns either. Do you see the problem with this logic?

The cereal and COVID analogies are false analogies. I already addressed your analogy and his analogy. You are being a literalist. I fear for the salesman who sells you an “Off-Road” truck that doesn’t work in all off road locations or that has a 4WD system that turns off when it overheats like someone else mentioned.

The rest is just off topic conjecture and doesn’t advance your argument.
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Old 03-17-2021, 11:08 PM   #84
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Drives: 17 Asphalt 86
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To answer the questions earlier about the video you linked, it looked to me like a 2.5. it's impressive a car can do that, but every condition in the video looked perfect. Daylight, clear weather, not much traffic, very open smooth roads with gentle curves. I Don't know of any roads within 200km of me that look like that. I am picturing my current commute to work which involves mostly highway and wouldn't have confidence the system would get through the construction bits in place as the city is putting a train infrastructure in place.

This Channel does a lot of real world conditions which is interesting. Seems like it is far off a 3 but still impressive if I remove the term "FSD" from my brain.
Still too sketchy for me watching the video not trusting what the car is going to do. I wouldn't spend a dime to try It, maybe if it was free.



He did a drive on wet winter roads with a bit if slush on parts of the road. Definitely a 2 here. Has moments where it works, then others where it literally tries to drive into snow bank, it can't judge the conditions and adjust speed. That isn't even taking into consideration snow on the ground where it won't see lines on the road or curbs.
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