The Drive article on Q1 2022 GR86 Sales

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Didn't say it will be tomorrow.
The current systems for classic cars assume that the majority of new cars are still ICE. When ICE goes away yes there will still be those special antique car techs, insurance , parts etc but the price of them will go through the roof. That is ignoring what the price of gas will do when it is a small scale niche hobby product and not a mass consumer commodity.
The change to EVs will force ICE operating costs up way faster than you may think. Every single gallon of gas reduced will eventually push the rest up.

lithium, and cobalt are still considered a rare earth metal though. i do wonder if once we convert more of the planet to ev if the price will end up skyrocketing on those metals as well as becoming even more limited in supply. not to mention copper prices.

i'm not entirely convinced that a full transition can ever happen due to resource availability, but that's a long ways off yet.

[Dake]

There are numerous reports addressing that very issue; all we're doing is trading one issue for another. It doesn't mean we shouldn't be transitioning away from fossil fuels, but it's not going to be without its own problems. Between materials costs and infrastructure gaps, I think we'll see more delays on moving away from ICE than some of the current legislation is demanding.

[daiheadjai]

Originally Posted by Sasquachulator

Well they need product to sell and thats the only things they sell lol.

Also, that tech is old enough not to be affected by the chip shortage.



(mostly /sarc)

[Blighty]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Didn't say it will be tomorrow.
The current systems for classic cars assume that the majority of new cars are still ICE. When ICE goes away yes there will still be those special antique car techs, insurance , parts etc but the price of them will go through the roof. That is ignoring what the price of gas will do when it is a small scale niche hobby product and not a mass consumer commodity.
The change to EVs will force ICE operating costs up way faster than you may think. Every single gallon of gas reduced will eventually push the rest up.

Hmm. Oil supply and demand is fickle (particularly when you have market manipulation with opec), but we know that when demand plummeted during covid the prices went down.

No-one might be selling oil burners in the future (at least civilian passenger ones), but those sheikh's will be trying very hard to sell as much as they can.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Blighty

Hmm. Oil supply and demand is fickle (particularly when you have market manipulation with opec), but we know that when demand plummeted during covid the prices went down.

No-one might be selling oil burners in the future (at least civilian passenger ones), but those sheikh's will be trying very hard to sell as much as they can.

Different scenario. There were still millions and millions of cars on the road that would need gas eventually.

For a better example during current conditions look at the price of things such as 100 octane fuels. It is exuberantly expensive since so few need or buy it. It doesn't cost any more to produce, deliver or store so the only reason it cost so much is low volumes.

When there are very few hobby ICE vehicles around nobody will be reducing prices to try and sell more oil. The volume pricing will go away and you will spend hobby prices for every drop of fuel, motor oil, coolant and the other necessities to keep an ICE car running.

[fredzy]

Maybe with gas @$100 per gallon I'll finally be motivated to take an actual car to a race track instead of scratching that itch with a simulation. Might be the only place ICE are allowed by then.

Meanwhile, I'll be getting passed on the track by EVs that are being controlled remotely via VR headset. That would make for a nice ironic-ish end of a movie.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by fredzy

Maybe with gas @$100 per gallon I'll finally be motivated to take an actual car to a race track instead of scratching that itch with a simulation. Might be the only place ICE are allowed by then.

Meanwhile, I'll be getting passed on the track by EVs that are being controlled remotely via VR headset. That would make for a nice ironic-ish end of a movie.

except the credits never roll!

[Blighty]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Different scenario. There were still millions and millions of cars on the road that would need gas eventually.

For a better example during current conditions look at the price of things such as 100 octane fuels. It is exuberantly expensive since so few need or buy it. It doesn't cost any more to produce, deliver or store so the only reason it cost so much is low volumes.

When there are very few hobby ICE vehicles around nobody will be reducing prices to try and sell more oil. The volume pricing will go away and you will spend hobby prices for every drop of fuel, motor oil, coolant and the other necessities to keep an ICE car running.

Well looking at the current price of anything tells you very little, looking at the price change through changes to supply and demand over time tells you much more.

On top of that the supply/demand of 100 octane fuel is... detached from oil production supply and demand - it has minimal impact on actual oil supply. Demand could go up 100% and it wont impact actual oil production or the wallets of those at OPEC.

You need to work out, and this is why its tricky, if OPEC can price for a future state and survive with very small demand based on those consumers that cannot move away from oil without collapsing the entire business, or is it more profitable to price oil in a way that tries to keep the market larger and more competitive to prevent the market size from tanking very fast.

There will be a minimum amount of customers that need fuel and cannot change to say electric, but that minimal amount will largely be governmental and I'm not sure even if that minimal market will be good for OPEC because its probably going to be small enough for internal governments to support.

So yeah, I'm not so sure a very high fuel price and tiny market is something that is attractive at all to OPEC, and that they may in fact want to continue to saturate the market to delay the reduction of the overall market size.

Of course I could very likely be wrong, this is something that my brain does sizzle a bit thinking about.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Blighty

Well looking at the current price of anything tells you very little, looking at the price change through changes to supply and demand over time tells you much more.

On top of that the supply/demand of 100 octane fuel is... detached from oil production supply and demand - it has minimal impact on actual oil supply. Demand could go up 100% and it wont impact actual oil production or the wallets of those at OPEC.

You need to work out, and this is why its tricky, if OPEC can price for a future state and survive with very small demand based on those consumers that cannot move away from oil without collapsing the entire business, or is it more profitable to price oil in a way that tries to keep the market larger and more competitive to prevent the market size from tanking very fast.

There will be a minimum amount of customers that need fuel and cannot change to say electric, but that minimal amount will largely be governmental and I'm not sure even if that minimal market will be good for OPEC because its probably going to be small enough for internal governments to support.

So yeah, I'm not so sure a very high fuel price and tiny market is something that is attractive at all to OPEC, and that they may in fact want to continue to saturate the market to delay the reduction of the overall market size.

Of course I could very likely be wrong, this is something that my brain does sizzle a bit thinking about.

In the end those very rich oil countries will be out of luck no matter how much they try. They had a good run but their days are numbered.

[Blighty]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

In the end those very rich oil countries will be out of luck no matter how much they try. They had a good run but their days are numbered.

Yep. Pretty much.

[Dirty Harry]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

In the end those very rich oil countries will be out of luck no matter how much they try. They had a good run but their days are numbered.

They’ll still need oil for aviation and shipping though, unless they start using synthetic fuel. Surely that would still be a large volume of oil needed.

[Dirty Harry]

Interesting perspective, watch from about 7:30, the first part is more directed at his comments. Still worthwhile watching the whole thing, but if you can’t be a*sed, 7:30 is his facts and arguments.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dirty Harry

They’ll still need oil for aviation and shipping though, unless they start using synthetic fuel. Surely that would still be a large volume of oil needed.

The combination of the two is about 15% of the current oil supply.
It means that these things will get more costly as well.
There is simply no way that this subject can be spun to have inexpensive fuels once the majority of cars are electric. The profit through volume will be gone and that will shut down refining facilities and what remains will be expensive.

[Dirty Harry]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

The combination of the two is about 15% of the current oil supply.
It means that these things will get more costly as well.
There is simply no way that this subject can be spun to have inexpensive fuels once the majority of cars are electric. The profit through volume will be gone and that will shut down refining facilities and what remains will be expensive.

It’s all a bit depressing really. I guess choose wisely for your last ICE car, 15 to 20 years from now, it’ll likely be a hobby/enthusiast vehicle.