GR 86: Orders /Reservation /Waitlist Chat

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by fredzy

Reality is Toyota's clairvoyant allocation system sends cars to dealers based on what they've sold in the past. This probably works well for most models but breaks down for lower volume vehicles to where you can have situations like my local dealer. A vicious cycle of them getting, selling and receiving more of one specific thing (base Halo AT.) This is especially broken when no dealers do allocation swaps - the only way their preference request system can actually have meaning.

I think this system also explains the lopsided automatic production despite huge manual demand. It was forecasting based on those last few years of 86 sales that were mostly AT to move them to non-enthusiasts as sales were down to a trickle. There was no data-driven way to know most people would want manual off the bat.

I have a lot of thoughts on how this could be better but I think we've gone around in circles in this thread on that. We all know Toyota won't change how they do things. If they were ever going to put a system in place to make the car buying experience for low volume cars less atrocious (it was exactly the same before COVID) it would have come along with the Supra.

Nah. The Toyota crew are not dumb and were confused about how many ATs they should make no matter what the MT "enthusiast" crowd may think.
The sales were down to a trickle because production was rolling back for the end of the series. Perfectly normal and had nothing to do with "enthusiast" vs normal buyers. The planned what to build and sold what they built so no problem whatsoever in their eyes.

You are correct in the fact that the dealer trade system has broken. This is more due to the fact that they could not build all the cars that were planned more than anything though. The exchange system worked just fine when the FRS first came out (let's remember that Scion was just a different badge for Toyota not a company of it's own) but they were able to get full production in before selling them. If they had managed to get almost 20,000 GRs built for 2022 then I highly doubt there would be a single person still waiting for the spec they wanted and dealers would be trading off left and right.
The GR just managed to have the worst possible release period in the history of automotive (well other than 1941 to 1945 when you could not buy ANY cars) and there is sweet fuck all Toyota could have done about it.

[fredzy]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Nah. The Toyota crew are not dumb and were confused about how many ATs they should make no matter what the MT "enthusiast" crowd may think.
The sales were down to a trickle because production was rolling back for the end of the series. Perfectly normal and had nothing to do with "enthusiast" vs normal buyers. The planned what to build and sold what they built so no problem whatsoever in their eyes.

I suppose I don't want to believe Toyota knew what demand was going to be because that means that unless supply chain somehow forced them to make more AT's, a big part of the problem manual seekers are facing was created deliberately. Why would they do that?

You are correct in the fact that the dealer trade system has broken. This is more due to the fact that they could not build all the cars that were planned more than anything though. The exchange system worked just fine when the FRS first came out (let's remember that Scion was just a different badge for Toyota not a company of it's own) but they were able to get full production in before selling them. If they had managed to get almost 20,000 GRs built for 2022 then I highly doubt there would be a single person still waiting for the spec they wanted and dealers would be trading off left and right.
The GR just managed to have the worst possible release period in the history of automotive (well other than 1941 to 1945 when you could not buy ANY cars) and there is sweet fuck all Toyota could have done about it.

I was wondering how things went with the first gen. I was busy following news of the next generation WRX when BRZ/86 launched and only heard a little here and there about it being hard to get, markups etc. By the time my WRX came in April 2014 I think things had settled down a lot. There was a manual BRZ that sat in the showroom for a while.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by fredzy

I suppose I don't want to believe Toyota knew what demand was going to be because that means that unless supply chain somehow forced them to make more AT's, a big part of the problem manual seekers are facing was created deliberately. Why would they do that?


I was wondering how things went with the first gen. I was busy following news of the next generation WRX when BRZ/86 launched and only heard a little here and there about it being hard to get, markups etc. By the time my WRX came in April 2014 I think things had settled down a lot. There was a manual BRZ that sat in the showroom for a while.

There were several very different circumstances with the first gen.

The FRS had two versions and two only. You could have a MT or an AT. No trim level complexity meant far less shopping for that exact set of preferences. When just looking for a certain colour and tranny set up it is going to be much much easier since they can make more of each.

The people that ordered ahead knew it was going to be while before they got the first gen cars. People ordering the second gen, as a group, expected them to be available immediately upon announcement. When considering the events of 2021 this was not a realistic expectation.

The 2012-2013 production number for the 2013 MY FRS was pushing 20,000 units (assuming they sold all that they made which is safe). The sales (so production) for the 2022 is a handful over 2,000. This is probably not even close to what they would have planned. Even without removing casual sales (people that were not looking for one but bought anyway) from the mix it would mean that there was no hope in hell of meeting demand. Then you have to take that number and divide it by two for trim levels, divide again by 2 for trannys (I know it wasn't 50/50 but bear with me here) and then by 7 for colours and the odds of any dealer close enough to you getting the exact specs you want are extremely low. This is amplified even more when you consider that since there are 1,500 Toyota dealers in the USA those 2,000 cars sold are stretched pretty thin as far as ordering goes. Now there is no doubt that many dealers had several orders but there would also have been just as many that had none so if there had been even 10,000 cars made there would have been enough to go around and a few left in stock.

Yes there were a few cases of mark up reported back in 2013 but they were rare. Goes back to the whole idea that if nobody pays it and moves on then it goes away. Anybody that paid markup really, really, REALLY had to have the car right then. The funny part is that if you went back and looked at who paid the markup you will see that most of them had the car a year or less and then moved onto the next bigger and newer thing to come out. I bought my March 14 build date 14 in late July of 14 after it had sat in the showroom for almost 5 months. Scion was fixed pricing but I got almost $5,000 worth of add ons that were on the car for display for free so there was no markup by then!

All in all it shows that under "normal" circumstances and conditions the Toyota system can and does work. This just ain't normal times so all bets are off.

[fredzy]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

The sales (so production) for the 2022 is a handful over 2,000. This is probably not even close to what they would have planned.

US sales of all 2022 GR86 through March 2022 was 3257, though this included some straggler FRS's. Production seemed to pick up significantly in Q2 though, for example there are currently 1630 86's in pipeline at this moment where there was usually only 300-400 cars in pipeline at any one time back in winter. So I will guesstimate production at around 8k cars for 2022 MY, but combined sales of 2022 and 2023 in calendar year 2022 might not be terribly far off that 18000 or so of the first full year of first gen. I'm hoping at least 12 but maybe as high as 15k.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by fredzy

US sales of all 2022 GR86 through March 2022 was 3257, though this included some straggler FRS's. Production seemed to pick up significantly in Q2 though, for example there are currently 1630 86's in pipeline at this moment where there was usually only 300-400 cars in pipeline at any one time back in winter. So I will guesstimate production at around 8k cars for 2022 MY, but combined sales of 2022 and 2023 in calendar year 2022 might not be terribly far off that 18000 or so of the first full year of first gen. I'm hoping at least 12 but maybe as high as 15k.

Ya apparently I can not read worth shit and totally messed up how many GRs have been sold!

The rest still applies and even with the increased (and accurate) number you provided we would still need to add the 8,000 or so 14s sold in 13 to even out the comparison and that put way more FRSs on the road.

EDIT: And HOLY SHIT look at all the negative numbers for almost every model! And people don't think there is a problem in the industry?

[fredzy]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

Ya apparently I can not read worth shit and totally messed up how many GRs have been sold!

The rest still applies and even with the increased (and accurate) number you provided we would still need to add the 8,000 or so 14s sold in 13 to even out the comparison and that put way more FRSs on the road.

EDIT: And HOLY SHIT look at all the negative numbers for almost every model! And people don't think there is a problem in the industry?

Oh no doubt it's ugly. It was that consistent 20 to 30% contraction in volume (which is insane/brutal) from that report for most models that got me figuring 12-15k 86's for the year. They definitely knew the same excitement from the first gen would be back again, probably squeezed everything they could out.

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by fredzy

Oh no doubt it's ugly. It was that consistent 20 to 30% contraction in volume (which is insane/brutal) from that report for most models that got me figuring 12-15k 86's for the year. They definitely knew the same excitement from the first gen would be back again, probably squeezed everything they could out.

There are rumblings that plants are going to go down again soon since parts/raw materials pipelines are drying up due to the China shutdown.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Tcoat

There were several very different circumstances with the first gen....

Best overall run through of the current situation I've seen. @Tcoat your industry experience slip is showing!

[Tcoat]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Best overall run through of the current situation I've seen. @Tcoat your industry experience slip is showing!

Well as Fred pointed out I managed to grab one month production numbers instead of to date but there will still be a substantial difference in numbers produced so my point stands.

Next month will be a full 30 years spent in Tier 1 parts manufacturing management so something was bound to slip into my thick skull.

[RustyAX]

Anyone near western Washington still looking? Dealer in Auburn told me a base MT was coming in and I'm next on the list. Haven't asked for the spec sheet yet because I will be picking mine up soon from somewhere else. Should be trueno blue. No ADM.
Said it was built last week and on a boat now or soon. If anyone is interested I'll see if we can swap my name for yours

[Ultramaroon]

Originally Posted by bree

You should try our spam

reported

[fredzy]

I have an interesting tale of being screwed over by a dealer that would be relevant to people actively working on buying a new GR86. I meant to post it here but accidentally posted in another thread. I didn't realize until the conversation had gone on a bit.

Check out post from post 116 on.

https://www.ft86club.com/forums/show...&postcount=116

[racingfool]

Originally Posted by fredzy

I have an interesting tale of being screwed over by a dealer

Originally Posted by fredzy

“and we’ll refund your deposit right away”

They should give you interest on the deposit.
They've held it for 7 months and then they broke the contract.

[Stigmaru]

Originally Posted by fredzy

I have an interesting tale of being screwed over by a dealer that would be relevant to people actively working on buying a new GR86. I meant to post it here but accidentally posted in another thread. I didn't realize until the conversation had gone on a bit.

Check out post from post 116 on.

https://www.ft86club.com/forums/show...&postcount=116

A dealer option contract on a VIN is nothing but a handshake agreement.

Originally Posted by racingfool

They should give you interest on the deposit.
They've held it for 7 months and then they broke the contract.

There is no real penalty if either party drops out. If they void it that means they rather risk the fast turn around transaction of the car because they are confident they can sell it above MSRP.