Expert prognosis for the planet

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Spuds

Land area should matter though.

I agree. This gives you a ratio that makes sense if you don't want to just use a straight % of overall emissions. Anything else is a moving target, and frankly is subject to manipulation or questioning. Well, at least to me, not that at the end of the day that matters much.

Also the whole carbon credits thing is a farce. Other than making money for Tesla and other companies that can sell them, does it really move us towards any improvement goal?

[Irace86.2.0]

New, good show. Paints a poor picture for our future. Talks a lot about tipping points and boundary layers. They made a good early point: while humanity has existed during fluctuating temperatures for a long time, modern civilization has only existed in the last ten thousand years where temperatures have been very, very stable; that might be necessary for a large, thriving, modern society.

[Irace86.2.0]

Nuclear power’s reliability is dropping as extreme weather increases



https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...power-outages/

Overall this latest analysis calculates that the frequency of climate-related nuclear plant outages is almost eight times higher than it was in the 1990s.

[Spuds]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

New, good show. Paints a poor picture for our future. Talks a lot about tipping points and boundary layers. They made a good early point: while humanity has existed during fluctuating temperatures for a long time, modern civilization has only existed in the last ten thousand years where temperatures have been very, very stable; that might be necessary for a large, thriving, modern society.

I have found a lot of the Netflix documentaries to have some significant political bias. It probably is a good watch, just noting the producers have a habit of injecting their own opinions into the presentation of content that are intended to sway yours in one direction.

[soundman98]

that ocean documentary they did awhile back was full of holes. my phone news feed was inundated with corrections and retractions for a full week after that started...

[Irace86.2.0]

Well, they are animal and nature lovers, so that is more their bias than politics. Even if walruses have been falling off cliffs forever, that shit is hard to watch. Of course there is nuance to anything someone sees, even documentaries that might want to persuade their audience.

[EAGLE5]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Nuclear power’s reliability is dropping as extreme weather increases



https://arstechnica.com/science/2021...power-outages/

Also, I believe the Japanese have a thing or two to say about tsunamis and nuclear power plants.

[Captain Snooze]

"Global warming below 1.7°C is ‘not plausible’, reveals our study of the social drivers of decarbonisation
We took a new approach to the study of climate futures, one that goes beyond previous efforts by the IPCC, the International Energy Agency and others, which assessed futures that are merely possible or feasible. “Possible” simply describes an accordance with natural laws, while “feasible” means that there are no or few barriers to a particular future. For example, it is technologically and economically feasible (and clearly possible) that you sell your car and buy a bike. Bikes are a mature technology and cheaper to maintain than cars. But will you? It’s also feasible that 20% of the UK becomes vegetarian by next year. But will they?

Plausible, on the other hand, means that something has more than an outside chance of occurring – it has an appreciable probability. In the context of climate futures, this means that a scenario is not merely feasible, but also that there is enough societal momentum and political will to make that future materialise.
There is no hard, quantitative limit for “appreciable” probability or “enough” political will. But our assessment didn’t need to split hairs in this way.The evidence was overwhelming.

Though the 1.5°C target might be possible, there are currently no grounds for optimism that we will meet it. But perhaps our findings will provide exactly the motivation we need to make it happen."

Article
Study

[Irace86.2.0]

€1 million prize for plastics-to-protein research awarded to Steve Techtmann, Ting Lu


https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_relea...u-mp071321.php

The first step in converting plastic and inedible plant wastes to protein powder is to depolymerize the wastes into more biodegradable compounds -- that is, break the polymer into its monomers, or individual, components. The current process converts plastic into compounds that look somewhat like oil using heat and a reactor that can deconstruct plastic's polymer chains. The oil-like compounds are then fed to a community of oil-eating bacteria Techtmann's lab has been studying. The bacteria flourish on their oily diet, producing more bacterial cells, which are about 55% protein. This lets the team quickly convert plastic to protein.

[Capt Spaulding]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

€1 million prize for plastics-to-protein research awarded to Steve Techtmann, Ting Lu


https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_relea...u-mp071321.php

My guess is Soylent Green will become pretty popular.

[Irace86.2.0]

The headline is a grabber to get people angry or to read the article, which essentially suggests prices could go up, and supply will temporarily go down. The law definitely doesn't mean the permanent end of bacon. It most likely means bacon could be in short supply for a while, but once things stabilize, that bacon burger might be 25 cents more expensive.


California's New Animal Welfare Law Could Mean The End Of Bacon

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/02/10237...nia-animal-law

At the beginning of next year, California will begin enforcing an animal welfare proposition approved overwhelmingly by voters in 2018 that requires more space for breeding pigs, egg-laying chickens and veal calves. National veal and egg producers are optimistic they can meet the new standards, but only 4% of hog operations now comply with the new rules. Unless the courts intervene or the state temporarily allows non-compliant meat to be sold in the state, California will lose almost all of its pork supply, much of which comes from Iowa, and pork producers will face higher costs to regain a key market.

arry Goodwin, an economist at North Carolina State University, estimated the extra costs at 15% more per animal for a farm with 1,000 breeding pigs.

If half the pork supply was suddenly lost in California, bacon prices would jump 60%, meaning a $6 package would rise to about $9.60, according to a study by the Hatamiya Group, a consulting firm hired by opponents of the state proposition.

At one typical hog farm in Iowa, sows are kept in open-air crates measuring 14-square-feet when they join a herd and then for a week as part of the insemination process before moving to larger, roughly 20-square foot group pens with other hogs. Both are less than the 24 square feet required by the California law to give breeding pigs enough room to turn around and to extend their limbs. Other operations keep sows in the crates nearly all of the time so also wouldn't be in compliance.

2018 article talking about the 2018 law that built on prior legislation from 2008, so these laws continue to progress. In some ways, this is like pulling off a bandaid slowly; it would be better just to rip it off. Slow and progressive changes to the law often means the industry changes and then has to change again and then change again. Farmers and producers will always want to maximize their profits, so they will do the bare minimum. It would be better if they just did a reasonable, single mandate, and then the industry had to adapt. While such a drastic change would seem worse for the industry than gradual changes, for some, the changes that need to be made represent an expense to things like pens. It is a Catch 22 situation.

Obviously, my position is known. This mandate for 24 square foot pens for pigs is pretty pathetic, especially if it changes things from 14-20 square foot pens to 24 square foot pens. We are talking about changing a pen that is anywhere from 2.8x5'-4x5' to its new size of 4x6'.

California makes cage-free hens a state law

https://apnews.com/article/7caa07ba4...dc7498fd573950

Dubbed the Prevention of Cruelty to Farm Animals Act, Proposition 12 builds on an earlier ballot measure, Proposition 2, that passed in 2008 and banned keeping hens, calves and pigs in tiny cages so cramped they couldn’t stand up, lie down or turn around.

That measure took effect in 2015 but lacked specific size requirements and did not apply to out-of-state farmers whose products were sold in California.

Proposition 12 specifies how much floor space farmers need to give each animal.

[Captain Snooze]

The IPCC has released its Sixth Assessment Report.
I think we're f*cked.

[Irace86.2.0]

Yep

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/d...R6_WGI_SPM.pdf

Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.

Compared to 1850–1900, global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C under the very low GHG emissions scenario considered (SSP1-1.9), by 2.1°C to 3.5°C in the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5) and by 3.3°C to 5.7°C under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5)24. The last time global surface temperature was sustained at or above 2.5°C higher than 1850–1900 was over 3 million years ago (medium confidence).

3.2 million years ago was Lucy aka Australopithecus.

In everything but the best estimate, warming will continue through the end of the century. Agreed, we are $%^&*.

[Irace86.2.0]

Rain falls on Greenland's summit for first time in recorded history

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.liv...irst-time.html

”There is no previous report of rainfall at this location, which reaches 3,216 meters (10,551 feet) in elevation," NSIDC researchers said in a statement, adding that the amount of ice lost in one day was the same as the average ice lost across a typical week for the same time of year.