The Housing Investment Paradox

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

In April 2022, the median listing home price in Sonoma County, CA was $829K, trending up 10.6% year-over-year. At 20% down, that is $166k plus closing costs and fees, which would probably push the price around $200k. The median household income is $86,173. If a couple could manage to save $20k/year then it would take ten years to save for a home, but then the median home would be higher, so they would need to save more. They might be wiser to buy with less down and pay mortgage insurance than to wait and save while renting. It probably depends.

I was doing some calculations. For the median family to afford the median home in Sonoma County where I live for $830k, they would need to save $166k-$200k to cover realtor fees, closing costs, appraisal, etc. The cost of a 4.5% 30y fixed mortgage, property taxes, no HOA, home insurance, etc came to $4,782/month. The median family with no liabilities making $86,173 would take home $4,986/month after taxes. Their basic home expenses, which doesn’t include maintenance and repairs, is 96% of their take-home. This is clearly not following the 30-30-3 rule.

It is worth noting that this couple saved $200k over 10 years by saving $20k per year. $20k/year is $1,667/month, which is them saving 33% of their take-home, and it leaves them $3,319/month for rent and life. The median rent for an apartment in Sonoma County is $2,087, so that will leave them $1,232 for food, insurance, internet, health bills, gas, etc. It is doable, but not great EXCEPT, we forgot appreciation. That home of $830k will appreciate faster than wages. Home values are appreciating around 10.6%, but let’s say the difference in home appreciation versus wage inflation is 5%. Over ten years, that would appreciate the property from $830k to $1.352 million, which is a gain of $521,983 or an appreciation of $52k per year. That would add another $10,400/year to their savings goal to meet the 20% or $270k versus $200k. This would put their Savings up another $867/month to $2,534/month in savings or 51% of their take-home, and it leaves them $365 for food, gas, insurance and other bills. This is why I said that they would be better off doing a FHA loan at 3.5%, which would be $29,050 if they had the cash, and it might be reasonable for them to get the home within two years of saving $20k/year.

Clearly, the median couple can’t afford the median house using the 30/30/3 rule. Well, what can they afford? The median family with an income of $86,173 can afford no more than 3x their gross wages, which would be $258,519. They would put 20% down or $52 plus closing costs and four years of appreciation, so let’s say $80k with some extra assets or savings in the bank to have 30% covered. They would be on the hook for $1,489, which would be cheaper than renting and be 30% of their take-home. Looking on Realtor.com, there are 58 homes below $258k. If we take away 55+ homes then we are left with 18 homes. All but 3 of these are mobile homes in a park where there will undoubtedly be rent. One looks like a shack or shed for $200k. To say the others are in the middle of the forest and fixer-uppers is an understatement.

Clearly, the median family can’t afford to own in Sonoma County, now. What will it be like in five or ten years? What about half of the families that make less than the median wages who live in Sonoma County? It isn’t like Napa or Marin is cheaper. Lake County and Mendocino are cheaper, but the idea of driving an hour or more twice a day to work in the city of Santa Rosa just to own isn’t exactly an affordable or reasonable option for half the population, and the prospects in those counties aren’t a huge improvement. This leaves renting, but rent is going up aggressively. Regardless, there is obviously a problem when the average family can’t afford anything in the county, even the cheapest housing. What does this mean for anyone wanting to buy who is single? For reference, the median individual income is $44,071, which is clearly that much further from ever being able to afford anything in this county using the 30/30/3 rule. My guess is a lot of people are overextended. I don’t know how bad it is in other parts of the country, but the median household income is $67.5k, and the medium home is $375k, which is 5.5x the median family’s income, so chances are the prospects everywhere are just as dire.

The American dream of owning a home is slipping away for the middle class family.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

...Looking on Realtor.com, there are 58 homes below $258k. If we take away 55+ homes then we are left with 18 homes. All but 3 of these are mobile homes in a park where there will undoubtedly be rent. One looks like a shack or shed for $200k. To say the others are in the middle of the forest and fixer-uppers is an understatement.

i'm missing what's accomplished here by taking away 55+ homes. the 55+ don't suit your point?

also, i nearly failed math, but if we take away 55 from 58, i'm pretty sure 13 isn't the remainder. could be wrong though.

[2020BRZtS]

Originally Posted by soundman98

i'm missing what's accomplished here by taking away 55+ homes. the 55+ don't suit your point?

also, i nearly failed math, but if we take away 55 from 58, i'm pretty sure 13 isn't the remainder. could be wrong though.

He is saying 40 homes are in 55+ communities. It wasn't math at all.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

i'm missing what's accomplished here by taking away 55+ homes. the 55+ don't suit your point?

also, i nearly failed math, but if we take away 55 from 58, i'm pretty sure 13 isn't the remainder. could be wrong though.

Most people in the 55+ communities sell to buy in a downsizing way to move into an active living, retirement community. These homes are often cheaper because of the limited demand. In a similar way, I removed the mobile homes because those parks charge $600+ for rent, so the true cost is a different calculation.

[soundman98]

Originally Posted by 2020BRZtS

He is saying 40 homes are in 55+ communities. It wasn't math at all.

OH, 55+ communities...

so it wasn't a math failure, it was an english failure.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by soundman98

OH, 55+ communities...

so it wasn't a math failure, it was an english failure.

[soundman98]

my area's too poor to segregate the old from the young.

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

Those people were over-extending themselves trying to flip homes and to use houses as investments, which is the very mentality problem I am discussing, but taken to more of an extreme, yet it isn’t far off from the norm of today with people jacking their rents, maximizing home prices, people in bidding wars willing to spend astronomical prices because they believe they have the safety net of an aggressively appreciating home, etc.

Like I said I know I can’t convince you otherwise. What I do know is what I paid for my home and what it’s worth. Atlanta is actually a small city with a huge suburban area. Prices in Atlanta match most major cities, and also has a decent population of “stars” that are willing to overpay and even sell at a loss to drop it quick. It messes up averages.

[Arthur-A]

I don't pay too much attention to the media, but I wonder if this housing issue is being acknowledged by the media or politicians? Or they prefer to focus on some fake problems like bathrooms or "climate change"?

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by Arthur-A

I don't pay too much attention to the media, but I wonder if this housing issue is being acknowledged by the media or politicians? Or they prefer to focus on some fake problems like bathrooms or "climate change"?

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

Like I said I know I can’t convince you otherwise. What I do know is what I paid for my home and what it’s worth. Atlanta is actually a small city with a huge suburban area. Prices in Atlanta match most major cities, and also has a decent population of “stars” that are willing to overpay and even sell at a loss to drop it quick. It messes up averages.

Anecdotal accounts aren’t going to sway my perspective from the major averages, trends, historical record, mathematical impossibility of this continuing, etc. I’m sure the trends aren’t ubiquitous in every area. I’m not saying that. What I’m saying isn’t new. Plenty of articles and videos from economists say the same thing. I’m just saying that no one seems to be talking about this on the regular. The focus is always about the affordability proposition, but no one really wants to burst the bubble pointing out the elephant in the room that the mentality isn’t sustainable, that homes can’t appreciate like this indefinitely. We need to work on long-term, sustainable solutions. Affordability is part of the solution, but if the mentality is to always appreciate properties to make money then people will act in that interest. Money influences gentrification, influences the regulators to creating zoning restrictions to keep multifamily complexes out of wealthy neighborhoods, keeps segregation, money prevents the influx of low income houses in general so property value continues to appreciate, etc. Everyone wants there to be a solution, but no one wants it at the expense of their standard of living or in a way that diminishes their money or that puts low income housing next to their house. Maybe if we burst the bubble that a personal home isn’t a wealth generator then people will be more likely to consider the solutions to increasing home ownership and reducing homelessness, and maybe that can help fix some things along the way like wealth inequality or substance abuse.

[Sapphireho]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

maybe that can help fix some things along the way like wealth inequality...

well said comrade.

[Irace86.2.0]

I think there is a mentality and some lessons to learn like the guy mentions at the end of the video, while not necessarily needing to go full autocratic. The US has a home ownership rate of 65%, yet it is probably lower, and Singapore has a 91% rate. There really is zero reason why almost everyone can’t own their own home.

[Irace86.2.0]

Originally Posted by Sapphireho

well said comrade.

Can’t tell if you are being serious or making a Russian communist dig.