follow ft86club on our blog, twitter or facebook.
FT86CLUB
Ft86Club
Delicious Tuning
Register Garage Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   Toyota GR86, 86, FR-S and Subaru BRZ Forum & Owners Community - FT86CLUB > Off-Topic Discussions > Off-Topic Lounge [WARNING: NO POLITICS]

Off-Topic Lounge [WARNING: NO POLITICS] For all off-topic discussion topics.

User Tag List

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 07-01-2022, 01:43 PM   #15
Spuds
The Dictater
 
Spuds's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Drives: '13 Red Scion FRS
Location: MD, USA
Posts: 9,399
Thanks: 26,057
Thanked 12,400 Times in 6,129 Posts
Mentioned: 85 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0 View Post
In that sense, we should expect San Francisco, for instance, to level out unless every rich person wants to own a SF getaway/summer home. It still becomes unsustainable, so it necessarily will flatten, eventually.
It's certainly possible, but only dead things stay still forever. What I am trying to say is the long term trend in property value is quite likely to follow the population growth/shrinkage of a given locality. And if we assume continuous population growth, you can usually assume continuous real estate price increases. At least until Mars becomes a more desirable place to live.
Spuds is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Spuds For This Useful Post:
NoHaveMSG (07-01-2022), Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 01:47 PM   #16
Dadhawk
1st86 Driver!
 
Dadhawk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Drives: '13 FR-S (#3 of 1st 86)
Location: Powder Springs, GA
Posts: 19,798
Thanks: 38,786
Thanked 24,907 Times in 11,362 Posts
Mentioned: 181 Post(s)
Tagged: 4 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0 View Post
Did I say new homes exceeded used, or are you referring to when I was talking about a time when buying new was just as reasonable as buying old because home values were flat? I’m a little lost.
That seemed to be the topic of your second paragraph (explaining why persons buy new vs existing). Maybe I misread it, but I reread it again and it still seems that way to me. I could see where you may not have intended that though.
__________________

Visit my Owner's Journal where I wax philosophic on all things FR-S
Post your 86 or see others in front of a(n) (in)famous landmark.
What fits in your 86? Show us the "Junk In Your Trunk".
Dadhawk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2022, 01:47 PM   #17
spcmafia
Senior Member
 
spcmafia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Drives: 2018 Subaru BRZ
Location: Stonington, Connecticut
Posts: 3,273
Thanks: 1,510
Thanked 4,132 Times in 1,981 Posts
Mentioned: 24 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spuds View Post
It's certainly possible, but only dead things stay still forever. What I am trying to say is the long term trend in property value is quite likely to follow the population growth/shrinkage of a given locality. And if we assume continuous population growth, you can usually assume continuous real estate price increases. At least until Mars becomes a more desirable place to live.

Well, the prices on Mars aint that bad actually. Small community, looks nice.



https://www.zillow.com/mars-pa/
__________________
“God gave me an okay mind, but a really good ass, which can feel everything in a car.” Nikki Lauda
spcmafia is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to spcmafia For This Useful Post:
Spuds (07-01-2022), Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 02:10 PM   #18
dpfarr
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Drives: BRZ ts
Location: SACRAMENTO
Posts: 750
Thanks: 410
Thanked 784 Times in 299 Posts
Mentioned: 8 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
I don’t get the cohesive argument here.

However, I think my nonsense is worthwhile typing out. The issue of homes appreciating is certainly fucked.
1)My parents bought their home in Joshua Tree in 89 for like 90k. My mom was going to try to put it on the market for 1.2 this year. Is that part of the problem of an exasperated market from Airbnb? I’d bet on that.

2) WFH has caused a significant impact to Sacramento real estate prices. My wife and I started actively going to homes, searching programs, rates, etc as first time buyers third quarter 2020. Bananas. Certainly not a repeat of 2005 housing of ARMs and over leveraging one’s self. People were coming from the bay, with significant borrowing capacity and cash effecting their DTI in comparison to someone from Sacramento. We bought in an area I thought I would never fucking live at because I thought I would live in a higher income area when we first started. In a year, there’s been a 30k equity increase in this home in a not great area of metropolitan Sacramento.

3) As a millennial, I do not expect to see a 100+ increase on my home like my parents have. There’s no way I can imagine this property ever worth 3.5. Perhaps inflation could proceed that way and that’s the outcome but a similar return on investment my parents realized through their homes will never happen.

All this being said, we had a lot of help in the way of cash to compete to get what we got for the sake of not renting and investing but living for the sake of our perceived quality of life values. I don’t work on my car in my apartment parking lot and I have two basset hounds that enjoy a backyard. That’s my ROI as far as I’m concerned. I’ll die in this house and hopefully it’s value benefits someone else.
dpfarr is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to dpfarr For This Useful Post:
Irace86.2.0 (07-01-2022), NoHaveMSG (07-01-2022), soundman98 (07-01-2022), Spuds (07-01-2022), Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 02:53 PM   #19
Irace86.2.0
Senior Member
 
Irace86.2.0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,882
Thanks: 5,665
Thanked 5,802 Times in 3,297 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox View Post
One thing your failing to bring up when owning vs renting and I do believe a home is a liability, because anything that costs you money is a liability.

I bought my home here in OKC almost 5 years ago. The payment is the same then as it was when I made the first payment. The fancy downtown apartment I rented when I first moved here at the beginning of 2017 is roughly $300/more per month than January 2017. And most properties like that go up each time you renew your lease.

But I also don't have to replace the AC unit if it goes out, or pay the deductible if a hail storm trashes my roof.

And as far as I gather, many people will buy a home vastly too expensive for their income just because the bank will loan it to them. That's one of the few things that keeps me in Oklahoma. I purchased a nice, completely renovated home in a quiet neighborhood, for $156k. So my month payment is only about 22% of my take home, vs the 30-35% gross banks will lend you. And that doesn't include my fiance's salary.
If someone buys then it is an asset with the potential to be in investment, and if it was mortgaged then it is a liability, yet it still can be an investment.

Rents do go up, but so does property taxes, expenses and repairs, etc. It seems like having a fixed mortgage would be better than a growing rent, but the historical data shows renting on average is still cheaper than a mortgage. Most people don’t need to raise rates to match the value of their homes. They would rather have a reliable tenant or risk having a vacancy than to maximize their profits. If someone only paid $1000 for their mortgage, and they are renting it out, the home could maybe sell in the future for a $2k mortgage, but maybe the owner is fine renting for $1500 because it is a $500 profit and guarantees it won’t be vacant. Unfortunately for renters, the vacancy rate is at historic lows, so owners have had the confidence to raise rents, which subsequently raises property values, which can raise rents more, and that continues until people can’t afford to rent, so they room together and vacancies raise, and the market stabilizes.

These two videos discuss how renting and investing can result in similar or more or less income compared to owning.


__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
Irace86.2.0 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Irace86.2.0 For This Useful Post:
Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 03:16 PM   #20
Dadhawk
1st86 Driver!
 
Dadhawk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Drives: '13 FR-S (#3 of 1st 86)
Location: Powder Springs, GA
Posts: 19,798
Thanks: 38,786
Thanked 24,907 Times in 11,362 Posts
Mentioned: 181 Post(s)
Tagged: 4 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0 View Post
These two videos discuss how renting and investing can result in similar or more or less income compared to owning.
I only watched the first one, but there are so many variables in it, and they obviously picked the ones that would come to their conclusion (which they basically admit).

For example,

buying a house with 5% down and paying mortgage insurance means you basically can't afford the house you are buying. Buy less house, or save more money before buying.

While you are at it, buy a house you can pay off in 15 years rather than 30 and take the 10 years (to 25 used in the example) to invest your house payment. No "rent" is better than lower rent any day.

What are really the chances you can rent a house of $500K value that signficantly less than the mortage payment? The renter is still paying things like annual property taxes and insurance, as well as expected maintenance (it's just built into the monthly rent payment).
__________________

Visit my Owner's Journal where I wax philosophic on all things FR-S
Post your 86 or see others in front of a(n) (in)famous landmark.
What fits in your 86? Show us the "Junk In Your Trunk".
Dadhawk is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Dadhawk For This Useful Post:
Spuds (07-01-2022), Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 03:26 PM   #21
Irace86.2.0
Senior Member
 
Irace86.2.0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,882
Thanks: 5,665
Thanked 5,802 Times in 3,297 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spuds View Post
It's certainly possible, but only dead things stay still forever. What I am trying to say is the long term trend in property value is quite likely to follow the population growth/shrinkage of a given locality. And if we assume continuous population growth, you can usually assume continuous real estate price increases. At least until Mars becomes a more desirable place to live.
That is definitely a factor among many factors, which is also why I suggested real-estate speculation can still be alive in a flat/recessive, US market due to individual and local trends, but as a whole, the trend for the average necessarily needs to flatten.

I like the topic of population changes because our world and economy is built so much on growth that if we saw no growth or a decline in the population, what would we see? A depression or recession isn’t really a bad thing if population growth is in decline or is stagnant, right? Wages can still go up increasing buying power and increasing consumption per capita such that we see economic growth during a population decline or stagnation, but it is an interesting idea. They say maybe 8-10 billion will be the max, and most of that population growth will come from Africa. Several countries are seeing population decline. I don’t know if it has been an issue for them. It is always a concern when there isn’t enough population in younger generations to support retiring generations, or is it?
__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
Irace86.2.0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2022, 04:19 PM   #22
Irace86.2.0
Senior Member
 
Irace86.2.0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,882
Thanks: 5,665
Thanked 5,802 Times in 3,297 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dadhawk View Post
I only watched the first one, but there are so many variables in it, and they obviously picked the ones that would come to their conclusion (which they basically admit).

For example,

buying a house with 5% down and paying mortgage insurance means you basically can't afford the house you are buying. Buy less house, or save more money before buying.

While you are at it, buy a house you can pay off in 15 years rather than 30 and take the 10 years (to 25 used in the example) to invest your house payment. No "rent" is better than lower rent any day.

What are really the chances you can rent a house of $500K value that signficantly less than the mortage payment? The renter is still paying things like annual property taxes and insurance, as well as expected maintenance (it's just built into the monthly rent payment).
In April 2022, the median listing home price in Sonoma County, CA was $829K, trending up 10.6% year-over-year. At 20% down, that is $166k plus closing costs and fees, which would probably push the price around $200k. The median household income is $86,173. If a couple could manage to save $20k/year then it would take ten years to save for a home, but then the median home would be higher, so they would need to save more. They might be wiser to buy with less down and pay mortgage insurance than to wait and save while renting. It probably depends.

So if the rate of return on investments is greater than the interest rate on liabilities then it makes more sense to invest than to pay off a loan faster. While a 15 year loan has a smaller interest rate than a 30 year loan, and it would feel nice to be debt free, it would be wiser to invest with someone’s extra money than to pay off a home faster. Typically the return on investments in a basic S&P 500 fund is higher than the 30 year mortgage rate.

In many rent controlled areas, it is possible to pay far, far less in rent to get the same housing that someone just bought, but in all the ways I just mentioned in the other post above, rentals tend to be cheaper. If rents get too high relative to mortgages then more people just buy.

But this isn’t about the benefits of buying versus renting thread. I was mostly making the point that the current trajectory of the US housing market is unsustainable, but more importantly, the concept that houses will continue to appreciate faster than wages, such that they will forever be an investment, is also unsustainable and unfounded. If we look back in 300 years, we couldn’t say that homes forever appreciated at 10%, but wages appreciated at only 3.5%. That can’t happen.
__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
Irace86.2.0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2022, 07:19 PM   #23
soundman98
ProCrastinationConsultant
 
soundman98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Drives: '14 Ranger, '18 Tacoma 4Dr LB
Location: chicago-ish
Posts: 11,326
Thanks: 35,214
Thanked 13,661 Times in 6,778 Posts
Mentioned: 98 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
i started saying that the current pricing trajectory is unsustainable about a decade ago.

my grandparents paid $40k for their new house, in the '40's. my parents paid $80k for their house, early 80's. my house was $150k about 5 years ago, but is already estimating at about $210-$280k. median wages in the area were around $50k, but that's moving up to about $70k really fast once housing prices shot above $200k.

compounding this issue is college debt, and employment. used to be that everyone went to college to make the 'big' money, but now the market is so saturated with people with degrees, all that's left is the lower paying jobs, but everyone racked up thousands in student loans that need to be paid back, which significantly lowers the down payment and monthly payments they can afford for housing.

i think the word we're looking for is 'deferred problem'. old/rich people bought what they wanted because there were more populations of them, and they had the time to save and pay off previous debts. now the young/poor are coming in, but the old/rich already drove the market up. i've felt for a long time that we're putting off a very large depression. there needs to be a reset somewhere, and it's going to be more and more painful the longer we put it off.
__________________
"The time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time"
soundman98 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to soundman98 For This Useful Post:
Irace86.2.0 (07-01-2022), Ohio Enthusiast (07-01-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 07:25 PM   #24
Teseo
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Drives: frs
Location: Gunsai
Posts: 4,874
Thanks: 7,131
Thanked 2,919 Times in 1,767 Posts
Mentioned: 23 Post(s)
Tagged: 2 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lantanafrs2 View Post
Things go up and then go down
Thats what she said
Teseo is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Teseo For This Useful Post:
Irace86.2.0 (07-01-2022), NoHaveMSG (07-01-2022), Ultramaroon (07-01-2022), Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 07:33 PM   #25
Lantanafrs2
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Drives: 2013 frs red
Location: South Florida
Posts: 3,517
Thanks: 2,520
Thanked 3,088 Times in 1,654 Posts
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
I said up and down not in and out
Lantanafrs2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-01-2022, 07:52 PM   #26
Irace86.2.0
Senior Member
 
Irace86.2.0's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Drives: Q5 + BRZ + M796
Location: Santa Rosa, CA
Posts: 7,882
Thanks: 5,665
Thanked 5,802 Times in 3,297 Posts
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Different strokes for different folks.
__________________
My Build | K24 Turbo Swap | *K24T BRZ SOLD*
Irace86.2.0 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Irace86.2.0 For This Useful Post:
Captain Snooze (07-01-2022), dpfarr (07-03-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 11:44 PM   #27
Dadhawk
1st86 Driver!
 
Dadhawk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Drives: '13 FR-S (#3 of 1st 86)
Location: Powder Springs, GA
Posts: 19,798
Thanks: 38,786
Thanked 24,907 Times in 11,362 Posts
Mentioned: 181 Post(s)
Tagged: 4 Thread(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0 View Post
So if the rate of return on investments is greater than the interest rate on liabilities then it makes more sense to invest than to pay off a loan faster. .
Tell that to all the folks that lost their homes, or were stuck far upside down in a house during the last real estate bubble. You are ignoring risk, but I've gone around this enough to know I will not convince you otherwise.

I do believe you are skewed by a west coast market though. I paid $240,000 for my 4 bedroom 2800 sqft house in 1995. It is now worth right at twice that, and it's value had never really grown by 10% a year despite it's location in one of the most in demand Atlanta suburbs.

I don't consider it an investment though, never considered a house that, but I bought stability, and I'm good with that. Never would have gotten that renting.
__________________

Visit my Owner's Journal where I wax philosophic on all things FR-S
Post your 86 or see others in front of a(n) (in)famous landmark.
What fits in your 86? Show us the "Junk In Your Trunk".
Dadhawk is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Dadhawk For This Useful Post:
NoHaveMSG (07-02-2022), soundman98 (07-02-2022), Spuds (07-02-2022), Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Old 07-01-2022, 11:50 PM   #28
Sapphireho
Pressure fried
 
Sapphireho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Drives: '15 ultramarine
Location: Idaho
Posts: 13,160
Thanks: 5,444
Thanked 18,204 Times in 8,592 Posts
Mentioned: 154 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
My parents bought their house in 1965 for 19k. Worth 2.8 million now. Location, location, location.
Sapphireho is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Sapphireho For This Useful Post:
soundman98 (07-02-2022), Spuds (07-02-2022), Wally86 (07-06-2022)
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
PTE 6466, 1.0 divided A/R, polished comp housing, black ceramic turbine housing slicktop Engine, Exhaust, Bolt-Ons 6 10-17-2015 10:53 PM
63-67 corvette as an investment mike the snake Other Vehicles & General Automotive Discussions 58 11-13-2014 01:17 PM
porsche 918 spyder investment? Rocket.BRZ Off-Topic Lounge [WARNING: NO POLITICS] 60 08-06-2014 09:18 PM
Are components worth the investment? Cmeehleib5280 Electronics | Audio | NAV | Infotainment 25 03-31-2014 01:27 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:14 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging v3.3.0 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2024 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.

Garage vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.