Vacci-Nation [CLOSED DUE TO DISRESPECTFUL, INSULTING, POLITICAL POSTS

[spike021]

Originally Posted by Irace86.2.0

https://www.mic.com/p/this-covid-19-...nated-73507312

Interesting... I usually never have vertigo, but about two weeks after my first vaccine dose I got a pretty bad case of it one night.

Obviously causation != correlation so it could be entirely unrelated, but it is an interesting coincidence.

[humfrz]

Originally Posted by weederr33

I went to a handful of stores without a mask recently given I'm vaccinated and the CDC updates. It's a bit interesting how people are reacting to it. The places I went did not have a mask requirement (as I still want to be respectful to the business) so I waltzed in. Everyone gave me "the stare" as if I just committed high treason. Conversely, a few stores, no one batted an eye.

Maybe they had just forgot how ugly you really were -

[weederr33]

Originally Posted by humfrz

Maybe they had just forgot how ugly you really were -

A very real possibility!

[AnalogMan]

Food for thought, regarding masks (yes, I know, a touchy topic):

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...dance-on-masks

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/15/u...sultPosition=3

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/17/healt...day/index.html

I think the CDC announced their new mask guidance not so much based on science, but in desperation trying to find a way to encourage the reluctant to get vaccinated. I don't think it will work.

People much smarter than I am (card-carrying epidemiologists) say that it's too early to declare victory or run up the 'Mission Accomplished' banners until the infection rate is below 2/100,000/day. It hasn't reached that level anywhere in the U.S. yet (though California is getting close).

https://covidactnow.org/?s=1840757

Infection rates have thankfully dropped significantly everywhere in the U.S. But India stands as a stark and painful lesson of letting down our guard too soon. They went from believing the pandemic was contained with under 10,000 infections/day to one of the worst public health catastrophes ever (over 400,000 infections/day) in less than a month.

Americans as a people are generally impatient and short-sighted. We're taking an awful risk by jumping the gun, when just a little more time to let exponential decay do its thing could have bought additional security.

The reality is that science cannot fully explain the recent reduction in infections. It might be the combination of increasing vaccination, social distancing, and mask wearing (in some areas), but again the bona fide epidemiologists I know say it was mostly luck.

It's dicey to rely on good luck as a strategy, especially when dealing with a potentially lethal pandemic. Luck has a habit of running out, and can quickly turn bad (like in India).

[p1l0t]

Originally Posted by AnalogMan

Food for thought, regarding masks (yes, I know, a touchy topic):

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...dance-on-masks

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/15/u...sultPosition=3

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/17/healt...day/index.html

I think the CDC announced their new mask guidance not so much based on science, but in desperation trying to find a way to encourage the reluctant to get vaccinated. I don't think it will work.

People much smarter than I am (card-carrying epidemiologists) say that it's too early to declare victory or run up the 'Mission Accomplished' banners until the infection rate is below 2/100,000/day. It hasn't reached that level anywhere in the U.S. yet (though California is getting close).

https://covidactnow.org/?s=1840757

Infection rates have thankfully dropped significantly everywhere in the U.S. But India stands as a stark and painful lesson of letting down our guard too soon. They went from believing the pandemic was contained with under 10,000 infections/day to one of the worst public health catastrophes ever (over 400,000 infections/day) in less than a month.

Americans as a people are generally impatient and short-sighted. We're taking an awful risk by jumping the gun, when just a little more time to let exponential decay do its thing could have bought additional security.

The reality is that science cannot fully explain the recent reduction in infections. It might be the combination of increasing vaccination, social distancing, and mask wearing (in some areas), but again the bona fide epidemiologists I know say it was mostly luck.

It's dicey to rely on good luck as a strategy, especially when dealing with a potentially lethal pandemic. Luck has a habit of running out, and can quickly turn bad (like in India).

I mean as much as I hate wearing masks and don't want to wear one for the rest of my life in public.. I have not had so much as a cold let alone the flu since people started wearing them.

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[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by p1l0t

I mean as much as I hate wearing masks and don't want to wear one for the rest of my life in public.. I have not had so much as a cold let alone the flu since people started wearing them.

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I've been sick twice, but it has been pretty mild.

[p1l0t]

Originally Posted by NoHaveMSG

I've been sick twice, but it has been pretty mild.

WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS


lol j/k

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[Ultramaroon]

lol

[NoHaveMSG]

Originally Posted by p1l0t

WASH YOUR DAMN HANDS


lol j/k

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My hands get washed during my weekly shower

[Dadhawk]

Originally Posted by AnalogMan

The reality is that science cannot fully explain the recent reduction in infections. It might be the combination of increasing vaccination, social distancing, and mask wearing (in some areas), but again the bona fide epidemiologists I know say it was mostly luck..

I assume they are, but you don't say, they are taking into account the percentage of the population that has immunity from a previous infection.

There are 209M people over the age of 18 in the US. There have been 27.7M reported survivable cases of COVID in the US (basically excluding the number of deaths from the number of reported infections). That means that about 14% of the adult population has some level of immunity without vaccination. 36% of the population is fully vaccinated, but there is overlap. So, somewhere between 36% and 50% of the US has an immunity that we know about.

That would seem to be at least a contributing factor in the a reduction of infection rates.

[AnalogMan]

Originally Posted by Dadhawk

I assume they are, but you don't say, they are taking into account the percentage of the population that has immunity from a previous infection.

That would seem to be at least a contributing factor in the a reduction of infection rates.

You are correct. Residual immunity from previous infection is certainly a contributing factor to declining infection rates.

However, it's not as much of a factor as one might think, for a few reasons.

First, immunity wanes over time. This is particularly true for the immunity derived from having COVID. The robustness of the immune response fades over several months. The exact time is uncertain and clearly varies greatly from person to person, but after 6-12 months, there likely isn't much remaining immune response from having had a 'natural' infection (and much shorter in many people).

Second, the elephant in the room few people want to talk about (because it's scary) - variants. The majority of infections being caused right now are due to one of the many variants. The B.1.1.7 "U.K." variant is predominant in most places now. There are a number of others circulating, including P.1 "Brazilian", B.1.526 (and several associated sublineages) "New York", B.1.427 (and associated sublineage) "California", B.1.351 "South Africa", and maybe most frightening, B.1.617 "India" variants.

(Despite the 'international' names, these variants most likely independently evolved and emerged here in the U.S., due to the principle of simultaneous convergent evolution. The 'names' (like "U.K.") are just where they were first characterized).

There are few 'absolutes' regarding vaccine efficacy against the variants (as much as we all crave clear black and white answers). Much is still unknown. Most of the variants have varying degrees of reduced susceptibility to the current vaccines - it takes a higher concentration of antibodies to neutralize the virus. Breakthrough infections with variants have been reported in vaccinated individuals. For example, a clinical study in Israel showed that the Pfizer vaccine is largely ineffective against the B.1.351 variant. Another (lab) study showed that it takes a 7 times greater concentration of antibodies to neutralize the B.1.617. It's been suggested that post-vaccination efficacy against B.1.1.7 (when antibody levels are highest) might be around 75%, compared with 95% against the original SARS-CoV-2 strain in the clinical studies with the mRNA vaccines.

The bottom line is that more people can get infected by variants, even if they are vaccinated, and the protection from vaccination will likely be shorter against the variants.

All of these factors combined are why vaccination, social distancing, masking (to the extent it was followed), and prior infection, even collectively, don't explain the magnitude of the decline in infections we are experiencing.

There is still so much that is unknown about the virus. There is an element of seasonality to infections that is poorly understood. We run a double risk both from getting smacked in the head by a seasonal resurgence of infections in the fall/winter, and from variants that are increasingly resistant to vaccines.

[Ultramaroon]

I've come to believe that influenza vaccination can benefit others as well as the vaccinated individual. Therefore, in the spirit of goodwill and civic duty, I'll start getting that as well. Can't hurt. Looking forward to the variant booster.

[p1l0t]

I wonder how many got the regular flu and just didn't want to go to a doctors office or hospital during the pandemic and just didn't report.

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[weederr33]

Originally Posted by p1l0t

I wonder how many got the regular flu and just didn't want to go to a doctors office or hospital during the pandemic and just didn't report.

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Good question. I'm sure there are plenty who get it and don't go to the Dr. outside the pandemic. The time I got it, I didn't go to the Dr. because it didn't take me long to realize what was wrong. But if some old lady got it, she'd probably go versus a young, brutish, stallion like myself.